IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ijoeps/v18y2024i1d10.1007_s42495-023-00123-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing Wagner’s hypothesis using disaggregated data: evidence from a global panel

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan D. Trofimov

    (Victoria University of Wellington)

Abstract

The paper examines the relationship between aggregate and disaggregated public spending and GDP in a panel of 50 developed, developing and transition economies over the 1981–2012 period. The paper specifically concerns the direction of causality between the two variables: from output to spending (as per Wagner’s hypothesis), or the reverse causality (based on Keynesian theorizing). Methodologically, we conduct panel unit root and cointegration tests, as well as three types of causality tests (Toda–Yamamoto, Dumitrescu–Hurlin, and Juodis–Karavias–Sarafidis). The tests reveal the weak evidence of cointegration, and the absence of Keyensian-type causality in all expenditure categories. Wagner’s hypothesis generally found support in all specifications and categories, although the mutual feedback between expenditure and GDP was also observed in a number of cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan D. Trofimov, 2024. "Testing Wagner’s hypothesis using disaggregated data: evidence from a global panel," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 143-171, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijoeps:v:18:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s42495-023-00123-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s42495-023-00123-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s42495-023-00123-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s42495-023-00123-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kojo Menyah & Yemane Wolde-Rufael, 2012. "Wagner'S Law Revisited: A Note From South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 80(2), pages 200-208, June.
    2. Sinha, Dipendra, 2007. "Does the Wagner’s Law hold for Thailand? A Time Series Study," MPRA Paper 2560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Durevall, Dick & Henrekson, Magnus, 2011. "The futile quest for a grand explanation of long-run government expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 708-722, August.
    4. Jiaqi Xiao & Artūras Juodis & Yiannis Karavias & Vasilis Sarafidis & Jan Ditzen, 2023. "Improved tests for Granger noncausality in panel data," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 23(1), pages 230-242, March.
    5. Saten Kumar & Don J. Webber & Scott Fargher, 2012. "Wagner's Law revisited: cointegration and causality tests for New Zealand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(5), pages 607-616, February.
    6. Rafael E. De Hoyos & Vasilis Sarafidis, 2006. "Testing for cross-sectional dependence in panel-data models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 6(4), pages 482-496, December.
    7. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Dominique Pépin & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2016. "A RE-EXAMINATION OF REAL INTEREST PARITY IN CEECs USING ‘OLD’ AND ‘NEW’ SECOND-GENERATION PANEL UNIT ROOT TESTS," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 133-150, April.
    8. Tsangyao Chang & WenRong Liu & Steven Caudill, 2004. "A re-examination of Wagner's law for ten countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 577-589.
    9. Jan Kuckuck, 2014. "Testing Wagner's Law at Different Stages of Economic Development," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 70(1), pages 128-168, March.
    10. Lamartina Serena & Zaghini Andrea, 2011. "Increasing Public Expenditure: Wagner’s Law in OECD Countries," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 149-164, May.
    11. Artūras Juodis & Yiannis Karavias & Vasilis Sarafidis, 2021. "A homogeneous approach to testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 93-112, January.
    12. Nadeem Burney, 2002. "Wagner's hypothesis: evidence from Kuwait using cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 49-57.
    13. Henrekson, Magnus, 1993. "Wagner's Law--A Spurious Relationship?," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(3), pages 406-415.
    14. Hansson, Par & Henrekson, Magnus, 1994. "A New Framework for Testing the Effect of Government Spending on Growth and Productivity," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 81(3-4), pages 381-401, December.
    15. Akitoby, Bernardin & Clements, Benedict & Gupta, Sanjeev & Inchauste, Gabriela, 2006. "Public spending, voracity, and Wagner's law in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 908-924, December.
    16. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    17. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    18. Chiung-Ju Huang, 2006. "Government Expenditures In China And Taiwan: Do They Follow Wagner¡¯S Law?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 139-148, December.
    19. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
    20. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Nielsen, Ingrid & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Panel data, cointegration, causality and Wagner's law: Empirical evidence from Chinese provinces," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 297-307, June.
    21. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-1395, November.
    22. Damiaan Persyn & Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Error-correction–based cointegration tests for panel data," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 8(2), pages 232-241, June.
    23. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Roberto Perotti & Massimo Rostagno, 2002. "Electoral Systems and Public Spending," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 609-657.
    24. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    25. Luciano Lopez & Sylvain Weber, 2017. "Testing for Granger causality in panel data," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 17(4), pages 972-984, December.
    26. László Kónya & Bekzod Abdullaev, 2018. "An attempt to restore Wagner’s law of increasing state activity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1583, December.
    27. Kucukkale, Yakup & Yamak, Rahmi, 2012. "Cointegration, causality and Wagner’s law with disaggregated data: evidence from Turkey, 1968-2004," MPRA Paper 36894, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Dollery, Brian & Singh, Sukvinder, 2000. "Explaining the Real Size of Government in Australia: An Application of the Ferris and West Model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 157-173, September.
    29. Atif Ansar & Bent Flyvbjerg & Alexander Budzier & Daniel Lunn, 2016. "Does infrastructure investment lead to economic growth or economic fragility? Evidence from China," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 32(3), pages 360-390.
    30. Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G & Kumar, Mohan S, 1989. "Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 861-888, July.
    31. Antonio N. Bojanic, 2013. "Testing the Validity of Wagner's Law in Bolivia: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis with Disaggregated Data," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 28(1), pages 25-45, April.
    32. Hayo, Bernd, 1994. "No Further Evidence of Wagner's Law for Mexico," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 49(2), pages 287-294.
    33. Meltzer, Allan H & Richard, Scott F, 1981. "A Rational Theory of the Size of Government," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 914-927, October.
    34. A. A. Asseery & D. Law & N. Perdikis, 1999. "Wagner's Law and public expenditure in Iraq: a test using disaggregated data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 39-44.
    35. Stephen Kirchner, 2012. "Federal legislative activism in Australia: a new approach to testing Wagner’s law," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 375-392, December.
    36. Atrayee Ghosh Roy, 2009. "Evidence on economic growth and government size," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(5), pages 607-614.
    37. Granger, C. W. J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 1995. "Systematic sampling, temporal aggregation, seasonal adjustment, and cointegration theory and evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 357-369.
    38. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2015. "Testing Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6-10), pages 1089-1117, December.
    39. John Thornton, 1999. "Cointegration, causality and Wagner's Law in 19th century Europe," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(7), pages 413-416.
    40. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    41. M. Adetunji Babatunde, 2011. "A bound testing analysis of Wagner's law in Nigeria: 1970-2006," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(21), pages 2843-2850.
    42. Nikolaos Dritsakis & Antonis Adamopoulos, 2004. "A causal relationship between government spending and economic development: an empirical examination of the Greek economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 457-464.
    43. Thomas E. Borcherding & J. Stephen Ferris & Andrea Garzoni, 2001. "Growth in the Real Size of Government Since 1970," Carleton Economic Papers 01-06, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    44. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Wagner's law and Italian disaggregated public spending: some empirical evidences," MPRA Paper 26662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Omoshoro-Jones, Oyeyinka Sunday, 2016. "A Cointegration and Causality Test on Government Expenditure –Economic Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence from a South African Province," MPRA Paper 102085, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Oct 2017.
    2. Philip Arestis & Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya, 2021. "On the linkage between government expenditure and output: empirics of the Keynesian view versus Wagner’s law," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 265-303, May.
    3. Cosimo Magazzino, 2012. "The Nexus between Disaggregated Public Spending and GDP in the Euro Area," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2560-2579.
    4. Stephen Moore, 2016. "Wagner in Ireland: An Econometric Analysis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(1), pages 69-103.
    5. Nayak, Dinesh Kumar & Hazarika, Bhabesh, 2022. "Linkage between Income and Government Expenditure at Indian Sub-nationals: A Second Generation Panel Co-integration Techniques," Working Papers 22/374, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    6. Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2019. "Wagner on government spending and national income: A new look at an old relationship," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 636-646.
    7. Ayad Hicham, 2020. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth Nexus in Mena Countries: Frequency Domain Spectral Causality Analysis," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 34(1), pages 60-77, January.
    8. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Wagner's law and augmented Wagner's law in EU-27. A time-series analysis on stationarity, cointegration and causality," MPRA Paper 26668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Yilmaz Bayar & Özlem Yorulmaz & Oğuzhan Yelkesen & Valentin Toader, 2024. "The interaction between ICT penetration and sustainable development: empirical evidence from African countries," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.
    10. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2012. "Wagner versus Keynes: Public spending and national income in Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 890-905.
    11. Manuel Jaén-García, 2018. "Wagner’s Law: A Revision and a New Empirical Estimation," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 224(1), pages 13-35, March.
    12. Ali, Wajid & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Testing Wagner versus Keynesian Hypothesis for Pakistan: The Role of Aggregate and Disaggregate Expenditure," MPRA Paper 74570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Nupur Nirola & Sohini Sahu, 2020. "Revisiting the Wagner’s law for Indian States using second generation panel cointegration," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 241-263, May.
    14. Chakraborty, Saptorshee Kanto & Mazzanti, Massimiliano, 2020. "Energy intensity and green energy innovation: Checking heterogeneous country effects in the OECD," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 328-343.
    15. Fang, Zheng & Chang, Youngho, 2016. "Energy, human capital and economic growth in Asia Pacific countries — Evidence from a panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 177-184.
    16. Saban Nazlioglu & Cagin Karul, 2024. "Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous panels with cross-sectional dependence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1541-1579, October.
    17. Afef Bouattour & Maha Kalai & Kamel Helali, 2024. "The non-linear relationship between ESG performance and bank stability in the digital era: new evidence from a regime-switching approach," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.
    18. Ebaid Ali & Bahari Zakaria, 2019. "The Nexus between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence of the Wagner’s Law in Kuwait," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, April.
    19. Funashima, Yoshito, 2015. "Wagner's law versus displacement effect," MPRA Paper 68390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. MAÏ ASSAN CHEDI, Maman, 2022. "Does Defence Expenditure Affect Education and Health expenditures in Saharan Africa?," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(4), September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wagner’s hypothesis; Panel data; Public expenditure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ijoeps:v:18:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s42495-023-00123-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.