IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v14y2004i8p577-589.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A re-examination of Wagner's law for ten countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques

Author

Listed:
  • Tsangyao Chang
  • WenRong Liu
  • Steven Caudill

Abstract

Following Mann's (National Tax Journal, 33, 189-201, 1980) study, five different versions of Wagner's law are empirically examined using annual time-series data on ten countries over the period 1951 to 1996. Included are three of the emerging industrialized countries of Asia: South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand, and seven industrialized countries: Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, USA, the United Kingdom, and South Africa. The analysis is an advance over previous work in two respects. First, the stationarity properties of the data, the order of integration using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (Journal of American Statistical Association, 74, 427-31, 1979, Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-72, 1981) test and the Kwiatkowski et al. (Journal of Econometrics, 1, 159-78, 1992) test are empirically investigated. Second, the hypothesis of a long-run relationship between income and government spending is tested using bivariate cointegrated systems and by employing the methodology of cointegration analysis as suggested by Johansen and Juselius (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210, 1990) and Johansen (Journal of Policy Modelling, 14, 313-34, 1992). Unidirectional Granger causality is found running from income to government spending for the newly industrialized countries of South Korea and Taiwan, and the industrialized countries of Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, supporting Wagner's hypothesis for those countries. For the five remaining countries in this study: Australia, Canada, New Zealand, South Africa, and Thailand, no causal relationship between income and government spending is found.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsangyao Chang & WenRong Liu & Steven Caudill, 2004. "A re-examination of Wagner's law for ten countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 577-589.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:14:y:2004:i:8:p:577-589
    DOI: 10.1080/0960310042000233872
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0960310042000233872
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Panayiotis C. Afxentiou & Apostolos Serletis, 1991. "A Time-Series Analysis of the Relationship Between Government Expenditure and Gdp in Canada," Public Finance Review, , vol. 19(3), pages 316-333, July.
    2. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    3. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    4. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    5. Thornton, Daniel L & Batten, Dallas S, 1985. "Lag-Length Selection and Tests of Granger Causality between Money and Income," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 164-178, May.
    6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    7. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    8. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    9. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    10. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 1995. "An Examination of Wagner's Law for Greece: A Cointegration Analysis," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 50(1), pages 67-79.
    11. Bird, Richard M, 1971. "Wagner's o Law' of Expanding State Activity," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 26(1), pages 1-26.
    12. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    13. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    14. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    15. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    16. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    17. M. I. Ansari & D. V. Gordon & C. Akuamoah, 1997. "Keynes versus Wagner: public expenditure and national income for three African countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 543-550.
    18. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    19. Tano, Doki K., 1993. "The added worker effect : A causality test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 111-117.
    20. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abutu, Usman Ojonugwa & Agbede, Esther Abdul, 2015. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Cointegration and Error Correction Modelling," MPRA Paper 69676, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Aug 2015.
    2. Jan Kuckuck, 2014. "Testing Wagner's Law at Different Stages of Economic Development," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 70(1), pages 128-168, March.
    3. Manuel Jaen-Garcia, 2011. "Empirical Analysis of Wagner’s Law for the Spain’s Regions," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 1-17, November.
    4. repec:eso:journl:v:47:y:2016:i:1:p:69-103 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:eco:journ1:2018-01-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Nielsen, Ingrid & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Panel data, cointegration, causality and Wagner's law: Empirical evidence from Chinese provinces," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 297-307, June.
    7. Sinha, Dipendra, 2007. "Does the Wagner’s Law hold for Thailand? A Time Series Study," MPRA Paper 2560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Kumar, Saten, 2009. "Further Evidence on Public Spending and Economic Growth in East Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 19298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Dimitrios Sideris, 2007. "Wagner's Law in 19th Century Greece: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Working Papers 64, Bank of Greece.
    10. Narayan, Seema & Rath, Badri Narayan & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2012. "Evidence of Wagner's law from Indian states," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1548-1557.
    11. Ghartey, Edward E., 2008. "The budgetary process and economic growth: Empirical evidence of the Jamaican economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1128-1136, November.
    12. Ali, Wajid & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Testing Wagner versus Keynesian Hypothesis for Pakistan: The Role of Aggregate and Disaggregate Expenditure," MPRA Paper 74570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Gohar Samvel Sedrakyan & Laura Varela-Candamio, 2017. "The Impact of Public Expenditures on Economic Growth in Two Very Different Countries: A comparative Analysis of Armenia and Spain," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1702, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    14. Muthi Samudram & Mahendhiran Nair & Santha Vaithilingam, 2009. "Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 697-712, June.
    15. Emmanuel Ziramba, 2008. "Wagner'S Law: An Econometric Test For South Africa, 1960-2006," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(4), pages 596-606, December.
    16. Usman, Ojonugwa & Agbede, Esther Abdul, 2015. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Cointegration and Error Correction Modeling," MPRA Paper 69814, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Mar 2016.
    17. Stephen Kirchner, 2012. "Federal legislative activism in Australia: a new approach to testing Wagner’s law," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 375-392, December.
    18. Saten Kumar & Don J. Webber & Scott Fargher, 2009. "Wagner’s Law Revisited: Cointegration and Causality tests for New Zealand," Working Papers 0917, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    19. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Wagner's law and augmented Wagner's law in EU-27. A time-series analysis on stationarity, cointegration and causality," MPRA Paper 26668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. repec:voj:journl:v:63:y:2016:i:1:p:45-60 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Funashima, Yoshito, 2015. "Wagner's law versus displacement effect," MPRA Paper 68390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. repec:eco:journ1:2017-04-11 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:14:y:2004:i:8:p:577-589. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.