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An Empirical Examination of the Fisher Effect in Australia

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Listed:
  • Frederic S. Mishkin

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • John Simon

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

This paper analyses the Fisher effect in Australia. Initial testing indicates that both interest rates and inflation contain unit roots. Furthermore, there are indications that the variables have non-standard error processes. To overcome problems associated with this and derive the correct small sample distributions of test statistics we make use of Monte Carlo simulations. These tests indicate that while a long-run Fisher effect seems to exist there is no evidence of a short-run Fisher effect. This suggests that, while short-run changes in interest rates reflect changes in monetary policy, longer-run levels indicate inflationary expectations. Thus, the longer-run level of interest rates should not be used to characterise the stance of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederic S. Mishkin & John Simon, 1994. "An Empirical Examination of the Fisher Effect in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9410, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp9410
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    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1994/pdf/rdp9410.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General

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