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Government Expenditures In China And Taiwan: Do They Follow Wagner¡¯S Law?

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  • Chiung-Ju Huang

    () (Department of Public Finance, Feng Chia University)

Abstract

This paper tests Wagner¡¯s Law for China and Taiwan, using annual time series data covering the period 1979-2002. To estimate the long-run relationship between government expenditures and output, we use a robust estimation method known as the Bounds Test based on Unrestricted Error Correction Model (UECM) estimation (Pesaran et al. (2001)). Empirical results from the Bounds Test indicate that there exists no long-run relationship between government expenditures and output in China and Taiwan. Furthermore, Toda and Yamamoto¡¯s (1995) Granger non-causality test results also show that Wagner¡¯s Law does not hold for China and Taiwan over this same period.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiung-Ju Huang, 2006. "Government Expenditures In China And Taiwan: Do They Follow Wagner¡¯S Law?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 139-148, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:31:y:2006:i:2:p:139-148
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Panayiotis C. Afxentiou & Apostolos Serletis, 1991. "A Time-Series Analysis of the Relationship Between Government Expenditure and Gdp in Canada," Public Finance Review, , vol. 19(3), pages 316-333, July.
    2. Zapata, Hector O & Rambaldi, Alicia N, 1997. "Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 285-298, May.
    3. Anisul Islam, 2001. "Wagner's law revisited: cointegration and exogeneity tests for the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 509-515.
    4. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    5. Abizadeh, Sohrab & Yousefi, Mahmood, 1988. "An empirical re-examination of Wagner's law," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 169-173.
    6. Tsangyao Chang, 2002. "An econometric test of Wagner's law for six countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1157-1169.
    7. Henrekson, Magnus, 1993. "Wagner's Law--A Spurious Relationship?," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(3), pages 406-415.
    8. Michael Chletsos & Christos Kollias, 1997. "Testing Wagner's law using disaggregated public expenditure data in the case of Greece: 1958-93," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 371-377.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alimi, R. Santos, 2013. "Testing Augmented Wagner’s Law for Nigeria Based on Cointegration and Error-Correction Modelling Techniques," MPRA Paper 52319, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Yaya Keho, 2016. "Testing Wagner’s Law in the Presence of Structural Changes: New Evidence from Six African Countries (1960-2013)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 1-6.
    3. repec:eso:journl:v:47:y:2016:i:1:p:69-103 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Pravakar Sahoo & Ranjan Kumar Dash & Geethanjali Nataraj, 2012. "China¡¯S Growth Story: The Role Of Physical And Social Infrastructure," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 53-75, March.
    5. Nicholas Odhiambo, 2015. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa: an Empirical Investigation," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(3), pages 393-406, September.
    6. Lingxiao WANG & Adelina DUMITRESCU PECULEA & Handuo XU, 2016. "The relationship between public expenditure and economic growth in Romania: Does it obey Wagner’s or Keynes’s Law?," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 41-52, Autumn.
    7. Kumar, Saten, 2009. "Further Evidence on Public Spending and Economic Growth in East Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 19298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. repec:spr:chfecr:v:5:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1186_s40589-017-0054-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:voj:journl:v:63:y:2016:i:1:p:45-60 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Samad Bashirli & Ilkin Sabiroglu, 2013. "Testing Wagner’s Law in an Oil-Exporting Economy: the Case of Azerbaijan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 20(3), pages 295-307, November.
    11. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2012. "Wagner versus Keynes: Public spending and national income in Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 890-905.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wagner¡¯s Law; UECM; Bounds Test;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General

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