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Structural Breaks, Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey

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  • Acaravici, Ali

    () (Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Mustafa Kemal University, Antakya-Hatay, Turkey. Tel: +903262455845, Fax:+903262455854)

Abstract

This paper investigates the short-run and long-run causality issues between electricity consumption and economic growth in Turkey by using the co-integration and vector error-correction models with structural breaks. It employs annual data covering the period 1968–2005. The study also explores the causal relationship between these variables in terms of the three error-correction based Granger causality models. The empirical results are as follows: i) Both variables are nonstationary in levels and stationary in the first differences with/without structural breaks, ii) there exists a longrun relationship between variables, iii) there is unidirectional causality running from the electricity consumption to economic growth. The overall results indicate that “growth hypothesis” for electricity consumption and growth nexus holds in Turkey. Thus, energy conservation policies, such as rationing electricity consumption, may harm economic growth in Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Acaravici, Ali, 2010. "Structural Breaks, Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 140-154, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:2:p:140-154
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ilhan Ozturk & Amjad Ali, 2015. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth Causality Revisited: Evidence from Turkey," Bulletin of Energy Economics (BEE), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(4), pages 176-193, December.
    2. Hamdi, Helmi & Sbia, Rashid & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2014. "The nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth in Bahrain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 227-237.
    3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2012. "The dynamics of electricity consumption and economic growth: A revisit study of their causality in Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 146-153.
    4. Muhammad, Shahbaz, 2011. "Electricity Consumption, Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus: A Revisit Study of Their Causality in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 35588, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Dec 2011.
    5. Tang, Chor Foon & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Arouri, Mohamed, 2013. "Re-investigating the electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1515-1524.
    6. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ijaz Ur Rehman & Rashid Sbia & Helmi Hamdi, 2016. "The Role of Information Communication Technology and Economic Growth in Recent Electricity Demand: Fresh Evidence from Combine Cointegration Approach in UAE," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 7(3), pages 797-818, September.
    7. Stephan B. Bruns, Christian Gross and David I. Stern, 2014. "Is There Really Granger Causality Between Energy Use and Output?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    8. Nawaz, Saima & Iqbal, Nasir & Anwar, Saba, 2014. "Modelling electricity demand using the STAR (Smooth Transition Auto-Regressive) model in Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 535-542.
    9. Mustafa SAATCÝ & Yasemin DUMRUL, 2013. "The Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence From A Structural Break Analysis For Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 20-29.
    10. SBIA, Rashid & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2016. "Economic Growth, Financial Development, Urbanization and Electricity Consumption Nexus in UAE," MPRA Paper 74790, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Oct 2016.
    11. Sbia, Rashid & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013. "The Weight of Economic Growth and Urbanization on Electricity Demand in UAE," MPRA Paper 47981, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Jul 2013.
    12. Maria Pempetzoglou, 2014. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: A Linear and Nonlinear Causality Investigation for Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 263-273.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity consumption; economic growth; structural breaks; cointegration; causality;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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