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Structural Breaks, Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey

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  • Acaravici, Ali

    (Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Mustafa Kemal University, Antakya-Hatay, Turkey. Tel: +903262455845, Fax:+903262455854)

Abstract

This paper investigates the short-run and long-run causality issues between electricity consumption and economic growth in Turkey by using the co-integration and vector error-correction models with structural breaks. It employs annual data covering the period 1968–2005. The study also explores the causal relationship between these variables in terms of the three error-correction based Granger causality models. The empirical results are as follows: i) Both variables are nonstationary in levels and stationary in the first differences with/without structural breaks, ii) there exists a longrun relationship between variables, iii) there is unidirectional causality running from the electricity consumption to economic growth. The overall results indicate that “growth hypothesis” for electricity consumption and growth nexus holds in Turkey. Thus, energy conservation policies, such as rationing electricity consumption, may harm economic growth in Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Acaravici, Ali, 2010. "Structural Breaks, Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 140-154, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:2:p:140-154
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2012. "The dynamics of electricity consumption and economic growth: A revisit study of their causality in Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 146-153.
    2. Maria Pempetzoglou, 2014. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: A Linear and Nonlinear Causality Investigation for Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 263-273.
    3. Hamdi, Helmi & Sbia, Rashid & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2014. "The nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth in Bahrain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 227-237.
    4. Nawaz, Saima & Iqbal, Nasir & Anwar, Saba, 2014. "Modelling electricity demand using the STAR (Smooth Transition Auto-Regressive) model in Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 535-542.
    5. Muhammad, Shahbaz, 2011. "Electricity Consumption, Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus: A Revisit Study of Their Causality in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 35588, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Dec 2011.
    6. Mustafa SAATC & Yasemin DUMRUL, 2013. "The Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence From A Structural Break Analysis For Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 20-29.
    7. Stephan B. Bruns, Christian Gross and David I. Stern, 2014. "Is There Really Granger Causality Between Energy Use and Output?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    8. Rashid Sbia & Muhammad Shahbaz & Ilhan Ozturk, 2017. "Economic growth, financial development, urbanisation and electricity consumption nexus in UAE," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 527-549, January.
    9. Natalya KETENCİ & Ebru Tomris AYDOĞAN, 2019. "Determinants of Economic Growth in Turkey in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(42).
    10. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ilhan Ozturk & Amjad Ali, 2015. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth Causality Revisited: Evidence from Turkey," Bulletin of Energy Economics (BEE), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(4), pages 176-193, December.
    11. Tang, Chor Foon & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Arouri, Mohamed, 2013. "Re-investigating the electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1515-1524.
    12. Sbia, Rashid & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013. "The Weight of Economic Growth and Urbanization on Electricity Demand in UAE," MPRA Paper 47981, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Jul 2013.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity consumption; economic growth; structural breaks; cointegration; causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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