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Output Growth and Unexpected Government Expenditures

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  • Escobari, Diego
  • Mollick, André Varella

Abstract

This paper takes into account the dynamic feedback between government expenditures and output in a model that separates the effects of expected and unexpected government expenditures on output. We allow for standard determinants based on Solow’s growth model, as well as financial globalization and trade openness measures for a sample of 56 industrial and emerging market economies over the 1970-2004 period. We find that unanticipated government expenditures have negative and significant effects on output growth, with higher effects in developed economies. Along with savings responses, we interpret these results based on how fiscal policy reacts to business cycles. Anticipated government expenditures have negative - but smaller effects - on output growth. These results are very robust to a recursive treatment of expectations, which reinforces the role of new information in an increasingly integrated world economy.

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  • Escobari, Diego & Mollick, André Varella, 2013. "Output Growth and Unexpected Government Expenditures," MPRA Paper 48969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48969
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    Cited by:

    1. Diego Escobari & Diego E. Vacaflores, 2015. "Expectations and the Dynamic Feedback between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 121-136, March.
    2. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2013. "The output effects of systematic and non-systematic fiscal policy changes in Greece," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 1816-1831.
    3. José Augusto Lopes da Veiga & Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes & Tiago Neves Sequeira, 2016. "Public Debt, Economic Growth and Inflation in African Economies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(2), pages 294-322, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic Panels; Economic Growth; Expected and Unexpected Government Expenditures; Globalization.;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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