Public Debt, Economic Growth and Inflation in African Economies
We analyse the implications of public debt on economic growth and inflation in a group of 52 African economies between 1950 and 2012. The results indicate that the limits of public debt affect economic growth and exhibit negatively, from a given level of debt, an inverted U behaviour regarding the relationship between economic growth and public debt. The highest average rates of real and per capita growth are achieved when public debt reaches 60% of the real GDP and an average inflation rate of 8.2%. When this ratio falls between 60-90%, the average rate of economic growth drops by up to 1.32 p.p. and continues dropping by up to 1.64 p.p. when the ratio exceeds 90%. Briefly, the high levels of public debt are reflected in reduced rates of economic growth and rising levels of inflation. Our results for three specific geographical areas resemble those of the overall analysis, despite some differences. In North African countries, the growth rates of the GDP and inflation also show an inverted U behaviour as the ratio of public debt/GDP increases. The highest rate of economic growth is recorded when the ratio public debt/GDP is below 30% of GDP and corresponds to an average inflation rate of 5.33%. Identical behaviour of the GDP growth rates and inflation also appears in Sub-Saharan countries until the third interval (60-90%). However, the highest growth rate of the GDP and GDP per capita is registered when the public debt/GDP ratio is in the second interval (30-60%). For SADC countries, the highest average rate of economic growth (6.8%) is similar to North African countries, when the ratio public debt/GDP is below 30% of GDP, with an average inflation rate of 11%. The high level of public debt is reflected in reduced rates of economic Growth and increasing inflation rates.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Volume (Year): 84 (2016)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: PO Box 929, 0001 Pretoria|
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0038-2280
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0038-2280|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Escobari Diego & Mollick André Varella, 2013.
"Output growth and unexpected government expenditures,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,
De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-33, September.
- Escobari, Diego & Mollick, André Varella, 2013. "Output Growth and Unexpected Government Expenditures," MPRA Paper 48969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jakob Christensen, 2005. "Special Data Section Domestic Debt Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(3), pages 1-7.
- BILDIRICI, Melike & ERSIN, Ozgur Omer, 2007. "Domestic Debt, Inflation And Economic Crises: A Panel Cointegration Application To Emerging And Developed Economies," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
- James Tobin, 1970. "Money and Income: Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(2), pages 301-317.
- James Tobin, 1969. "Money and Income: Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 283, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Huixin Bi & Wenyi Shen & Susan S. Yang, 2014. "Fiscal Limits, External Debt, and Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 14/49, International Monetary Fund.
- Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
- Stanley Fischer, 1993. "The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth," NBER Working Papers 4565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Markus Eberhardt & Andrea Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They Are Different; Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth," IMF Working Papers 13/248, International Monetary Fund.
- Markus Eberhardt & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They’re Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship between Debt and Growth," Discussion Papers 2013/10, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
- Markus Eberhardt & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They're Different: Heterogeneity;and Nonlinearity in the Relationship;between Debt and Growth," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 92, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
- Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
- Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," NBER Working Papers 15639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 7661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," Scholarly Articles 11129154, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Toan Quoc Nguyen & Benedict J. Clements & Rina Bhattacharya, 2003. "External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 03/249, International Monetary Fund.
- James Tobin, 1970. "Rejoinder," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(2), pages 328-329.
- Deshpande, Ashwini, 1997. "The debt overhang and the disincentive to invest," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 169-187, February.
- Iyoha, M.A., 1999. "External Debt and Economic Growth in Sub-SAharan African Countries: an Econometric Study," Papers 90, African Economic Research Consortium.
- Tito Cordella & Luca A Ricci & Marta Ruiz-Arranz, 2005. "Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance? Revisiting the Debt-Growth Link," IMF Working Papers 05/223, International Monetary Fund.
- Goohoon Kwon & Lavern McFarlane & Wayne Robinson, 2009. "Public Debt, Money Supply, and Inflation: A Cross-Country Study," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(3), pages 476-515, August. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:84:y:2016:i:2:p:294-322. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.