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Domestic Debt, Inflation And Economic Crises: A Panel Cointegration Application To Emerging And Developed Economies

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  • BILDIRICI, Melike
  • ERSIN, Ozgur Omer

Abstract

The paper aims to investigate the economic relationship between inflation and domestic debt. In countries that experience high inflation, the inflationary process fed on increasing costs of domestic debt. As a result, the increasing debt to GDP ratios led these countries to borrow at higher interest rates and with lower maturity rates. The paper aims to divide countries into three groups. First group consists of Mexico, Turkey and Brazil; countries with high inflation experiences which result in increasing costs of domestic debt. Second group consists of Belgium, Canada and Japan, low inflation rates, low costs of borrowing. Third group consists of Portugal, Greece and Spain, countries with low inflation, high borrowing with low costs of borrowing and fiscal discipline. It is observed that, increasing costs of borrowing is epidemic to those with Non-Ricardian fiscal policies. As a result, it is not the rate of domestic debt/GDP ratio but the cost of borrowing and active fiscal regimes that lessens the immunity of emerging economies to the economic crises. Another important result that cannot be avoided is the fact that, FMOLS and DOLS methods followed in the study resulted in similar estimates for some countries, whereas we also observe very different estimates for others.

Suggested Citation

  • BILDIRICI, Melike & ERSIN, Ozgur Omer, 2007. "Domestic Debt, Inflation And Economic Crises: A Panel Cointegration Application To Emerging And Developed Economies," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
  • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:7:y:2007:i:1_3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Akingbade U. Aimola & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, "undated". "Public Debt and Inflation: Empirical Evidence from Ghana," Working Papers AESRIWP06, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    2. Aimola Akingbade U. & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2022. "Is the effect of public debt on inflation symmetric or asymmetric? Evidence from the Gambia," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 8(1), pages 41-57, June.
    3. Akingbade U. Aimola & Nicholas M. Odhiambo & Christian Nsiah, 2021. "Public debt and inflation nexus in Nigeria: An ARDL bounds test approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1921905-192, January.
    4. Zied SAYARI & Rima LAJNAF, 2017. "Inflation targeting and volatility: Panel evidence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 57-68, Spring.
    5. Lim Chia Yien & Hussin Abdullah & Muhammad Azam, 2017. "Granger Causality Analysis between Inflation, Debt and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Malaysia," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(1), pages 189-196, January.
    6. Melike Bildirici & Özgür Ömer ERS?N & Elçin Aykaç ALP, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Debt Policies, External Dependence, Inflation and Crisis in the Ottoman Empire and Turkey: 1830-2005 Period," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(2), pages 79-100.
    7. Tamunonimim Anipiriworima Ngerebo-A, 2014. "Domestic Debt Burden, Debt Overhang and Inflationary Pressure in Nigeria," Journal of Empirical Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 3(3), pages 172-183.
    8. Cuadros-Solas, Pedro Jesús & Salvador Muñoz, Carlos, 2022. "Disentangling the sources of sovereign rating adjustments: An examination of changes in rating policies following the GFC," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    9. José Augusto Lopes da Veiga & Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes & Tiago Neves Sequeira, 2016. "Public Debt, Economic Growth and Inflation in African Economies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(2), pages 294-322, June.
    10. Aimola, Akingbade U & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2021. "Public debt and inflation: Empirical evidence from Ghana," Working Papers 27063, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    11. Zied SAYARI & Rima LAJNAF, 2017. "Inflation targeting and volatility: Panel evidence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 57-68, Spring.
    12. Chloe Allison & Neryvia Pillay, 2024. "Cash transfers and prices what is the impact of social welfare on prices," Working Papers 11057, South African Reserve Bank.
    13. Boukraine, Wissem, 2020. "Short and long-run determinants of inflation in Tunisia," MPRA Paper 102014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Akingbade U. Aimola & Nicholas M. Odhiambo & Christian Nsiah, 2021. "Public debt and inflation nexus in Nigeria: An ARDL bounds test approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1921905-192, January.
    15. Godwin Essang Esu,(PhD), 2023. "Fiscal Imbalances, Economic Growth and Macroeconomic Stability in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(8), pages 887-901, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FTPL; Ricardian Equivalence; inflation and public debt; Panel Cointegration; Panel VAR; Panel VEC; FMOLS; DOLS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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