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An Empirical Analysis of Debt Policies, External Dependence, Inflation and Crisis in the Ottoman Empire and Turkey: 1830-2005 Period

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Listed:
  • Melike Bildirici

    ()

  • Özgür Ömer ERS?N

    ()

  • Elçin Aykaç ALP

    ()

Abstract

The study analyzes the relationship among domestic debt-inflation-domestic debt cost-external debt-external dependency-crisis in the Ottoman Empire and in the Republic of Turkey. The study discusses that the monetary based explanations have not been satisfactory for the period of 1830-2005 especially for the investigated periods with crises and external dependence. The cost of domestic and external debt and various measures of debt and dependence discussed in the study were used to analyze the relationship between external dependence, domestic and external debt, crises, inflation, cost of domestic and external debt, external dependence and crises in accordance with Autoregressive (AR) and Vector Autoregressive Regression (VAR) models. We analyzed the Ottoman Empire in light of inflationary effects of throne changes, wars and crises. Further, the inflationary effects of domestic and external debt are investigated for Turkey in light of the cost of debt, crises and political factors. As our results, increasing political instability has significant explanatory power on inflation. For the periods of increasing debt, the inflationary effects of debt policies are highlighted. The domestic debt-inflation-domestic debt cost-external debt-external dependency-crisis cycle enhances especially during the Decline Period of Ottoman Empire. The analysis also holds for the periods with high costs of debt in Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Melike Bildirici & Özgür Ömer ERS?N & Elçin Aykaç ALP, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Debt Policies, External Dependence, Inflation and Crisis in the Ottoman Empire and Turkey: 1830-2005 Period," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(2), pages 79-100.
  • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:8:y:2008:i:2_7
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
    2. BILDIRICI, Melike & ERSIN, Ozgur Omer, 2007. "Domestic Debt, Inflation And Economic Crises: A Panel Cointegration Application To Emerging And Developed Economies," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
    3. Woodford, Michael, 1995. "Price-level determinacy without control of a monetary aggregate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-46, December.
    4. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
    5. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 345-380.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Domestic Debt; External Debt; External Dependence; Crisis; Autoregressive models.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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