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Public debt in Turkey: evaluation and perspectives


  • Yesim Gurbuz
  • Thomas Jobert
  • Ruhi Tuncer


The aim of this study is to analyse past and future sustainability of total public debt in Turkey. The analysis is based on econometric studies and simulations. The data are taken quarterly in order to take into account intra annual effects important in Turkey, given the strong volatility of the economy. The period covered is 1988 to 2002. The econometric analysis rejects the hypothesis of the sustainability of Turkish public debt in the last 15 years. The simulations show that to reach an acceptable level of debt, Turkey has to solve its problem of chronic inflation, stabilize its economy and adopt either a policy freezing public spending or a very active fiscal policy.

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  • Yesim Gurbuz & Thomas Jobert & Ruhi Tuncer, 2007. "Public debt in Turkey: evaluation and perspectives," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 343-359.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:39:y:2007:i:3:p:343-359
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840500438889

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. World Bank, 2000. "Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Structural Reforms for Sustainable Growth, Volume 1. Main Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 14987, The World Bank.
    2. World Bank, 2000. "Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Structural Reforms for Sustainable Growth, Volume 2. Statistical Annex," World Bank Other Operational Studies 14995, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerrit B. Koester & Christoph Priesmeier, 2013. "Does Wagner´s Law Ruin the Sustainability of German Public Finances?," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 69(3), pages 256-288, September.
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4341 is not listed on IDEAS

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