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Assessing long-term fiscal developments - a new approach

Author

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  • Afonso, António
  • Furceri, Davide
  • Agnello, Luca
  • Sousa, Ricardo M.

Abstract

We use a new approach to assess long-term fiscal developments. By analyzing the time varying behaviour of the two components of government spending and revenue - responsiveness and persistence - we are able to infer about the sources of fiscal behaviour. Drawing on quarterly data we estimate recursively these components within a system of government revenue and spending equations using a Three-Stage Least Square method. In this way we track fiscal developments, i.e. possible fiscal deteriorations and/or improvements for eight European Union countries plus the US. Results suggest that positions have not significantly changed for Finland, France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom and the US, whilst they have improved for Belgium, Italy, and the Netherlands. JEL Classification: E62, H50

Suggested Citation

  • Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Agnello, Luca & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2009. "Assessing long-term fiscal developments - a new approach," Working Paper Series 1032, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091032
    Note: 1145200
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Afonso, António & Martins, Manuel M.F., 2012. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1789-1807.
    2. António Afonso & Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri, 2010. "Fiscal policy responsiveness, persistence, and discretion," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 503-530, December.
    3. Stoian, Andreea & Obreja Brasoveanu, Laura & Dumitrescu, Bogdan & Brasoveanu, Iulian, 2015. "A new framework for detecting the short term fiscal vulnerability for the European Union countries," MPRA Paper 63537, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mirko Abbritti & Salvatore Dell’Erba & Antonio Moreno & Sergio Sola, 2018. "Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 301-340, March.
    5. Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2012. "Fiscal Equalization Schemes and Fiscal Sustainability," ifo Working Paper Series 141, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    6. Andreea STOIAN, 2011. "A Retrospective Approach on Assessing Fiscal Vulnerability: Empirical Evidence for Overindebted European Countries," Timisoara Journal of Economics, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 4(3(15)), pages 183-188.
    7. Emilia Câmpeanu & Andreea Stoian, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Reaction in the Short Term for Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in the Long Runin Central and Eastern European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 501-518, December.
    8. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2013. "“The relationship between debt level and fiscal sustainability in OECD countries”," AQR Working Papers 201307, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Sep 2013.
    9. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vitor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 113-134.
    10. Adnan Habib & Jamshaid Rehman & Tasneem Zafar & Haider Mahmood, 2016. "Does sustainability hypothesis hold in developed countries? A panel co-integration analysis," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    11. Afonso, António & Carvalho, Francisco Tiago, 2022. "Time-varying cyclicality of fiscal policy: The case of the Euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    12. Carine Bouthevillain & John Caruana & Cristina Checherita & Jorge Cunha & Esther Gordo & Stephan Haroutunian & Geert Langenus & Amela Hubic & Bernhard Manzke & Javier J. Pérez & Pietro Tommasino, 2009. "Pros and cons of various fiscal measures to stimulate the economy," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue JUL, pages 123-144, July.
    13. Gerrit B. Koester & Christoph Priesmeier, 2013. "Does Wagner´s Law Ruin the Sustainability of German Public Finances?," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 69(3), pages 256-288, September.
    14. Antonio Afonso & Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "Assessing long-term fiscal developments: evidence from Portugal," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-5.
    15. Stoian, Andreea & Alves, Rui Henrique, 2014. "High public debt in the euro area: still a fact," MPRA Paper 63679, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Umoh, O. J. & Onye, Kenneth U. & Atan, Johnson A., 2018. "Political and Institutional Determinants of Fiscal Policy Persistence in West Africa," MPRA Paper 88452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. António Afonso & Francisco Tiago Carvalho, 2021. "Euro area time-varying cyclicality of fiscal policy," Working Papers REM 2021/0202, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    18. Andreea Stoian & Laura Obreja Brașoveanu & Iulian Viorel Brașoveanu & Bogdan Dumitrescu, 2018. "A Framework to Assess Fiscal Vulnerability: Empirical Evidence for European Union Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, July.
    19. Golpe, Antonio A. & Sánchez-Fuentes, A. Jesus & Vides, José Carlos, 2023. "Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1026-1045.
    20. Kurniawan, Rudi, 2012. "Sustainability of Fiscal Policy and Government Revenue-Expenditure Nexus: The Experience of Indonesia," MPRA Paper 65883, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Deterioration; fiscal sustainability;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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