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The dynamic behaviour of budget components and output

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  • Afonso, António
  • Claeys, Peter

Abstract

The main focus of this paper is the relation between the cyclical components of total revenues and expenditures and the budget balance in France, Germany, Portugal, and Spain. We try to uncover past trends behind the development of public finances that contribute to explaining the current stance of fiscal policy. The disaggregate analysis of fiscal policy in an SVAR that mixes long and short-term constraints allows us to look into the transmission channels of fiscal policy and to derive a model-based indicator of structural balance. The main conclusions are that fiscal slippages are mainly due to reversals in tax policies, which are unmatched by expenditure adjustments. As a consequence, deficits rise when economic conditions worsen but cause a 'ratcheting up' in the size of government in economic booms. The Stability and Growth Pact has not eradicated these procyclical policies. Bad policies in good times also contribute to aggregate macroeconomic instability. JEL Classification: E62, E65, E66, H61, H62

Suggested Citation

  • Afonso, António & Claeys, Peter, 2007. "The dynamic behaviour of budget components and output," Working Paper Series 775, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2007775
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    2. António Afonso, & Jorge Caiado, & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2015. "The macro impact of the Portuguese Constitutional Court decisions regarding the budgetary proposals of the Portuguese Budget Law (2012, 2013, 2014)," Working Papers Department of Economics 2015/06, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Afonso, António & Agnello, Luca & Furceri, Davide & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2011. "Assessing long-term fiscal developments: A new approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 130-146, February.
    4. António Afonso, 2011. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," Post-Print hal-00719484, HAL.
    5. Ibrahim A. Adekunle & Tolulope O. Williams & Olatunde J. Omokanmi & Serifat O. Onayemi, 2020. "Mediating roles of institutions in the remittance-growth relationship: evidence from Nigeria," Working Papers 20/063, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    6. Afonso, António & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2011. "What are the effects of fiscal policy on asset markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1871-1890, July.
    7. António Afonso & Peter Claeys & Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "Fiscal regime shifts in Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(2), pages 83-108, August.
    8. António Afonso & Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR analysis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(1), pages 61-82, April.
    9. Anton Gerunov, 2016. "Cyclical dynamics of key fiscal aggregates in Bulgaria over the period 1998-2014," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 56-73,74-89.
    10. Stanova, Nadja, 2015. "Fiscal discretion, growth and output volatility in new EU member countries," MPRA Paper 63946, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ibrahim A. Adekunle & Tolulope O. Williams & Olatunde J. Omokanmi & Serifat O. Onayemi, 2020. "Mediating roles of institutions in the remittance-growth relationship: evidence from Nigeria," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/063, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    12. Rafał Chmura, 2023. "Stabilizing, neutral or destabilizing? The impact of fiscal rules on the GDP volatility in the EU countries," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(5), pages 475-498.
    13. Carnazza, Giovanni & Liberati, Paolo & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "The cyclically-adjusted primary balance: A novel approach for the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 1123-1145.
    14. Ibrahim A. Adekunle & Tolulope O. Williams & Olatunde J. Omokanmi & Serifat O. Onayemi, 2020. "Mediating roles of institutions in the remittance-growth relationship: evidence from Nigeria," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 20/063, African Governance and Development Institute..
    15. Ant Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(34), pages 4439-4454, December.
    16. Wasniewski, Krzysztof, 2016. "The economic power of veto players – the connection between fiscal policies, and political systems," MPRA Paper 69849, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Fukuda, Kosei, 2009. "Measuring major and minor cycles in univariate economic time series," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1093-1100, September.
    18. António Afonso, 2013. "Anatomy of a fiscal débacle: the case of Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/01, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    19. Ibrahim Ayoade Adekunle & Tolulope Oyakhilome Williams & Olatunde Julius Omokanmi & Serifat Olukorede Onayemi, 2020. "The Mediating Role Of Institutions In The Remittance–Growth Relationship: Evidence From Nigeria," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(227), pages 7-30, October –.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal indicator; SGP; short and long-term restrictions; structural balance; SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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