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Fiscal Regime Shifts in Portugal

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  • António Afonso
  • Peter Claeys
  • Ricardo M. Sousa

Abstract

We estimate changes in fiscal policy regimes in Portugal with a Markov Switching regression of fiscal policy rules for the period 1978-2007, using a new dataset of fiscal quarterly series. We find evidence of a deficit bias, while repeated reversals of taxes making the budget procyclical. Economic booms have typically been used to relax tax pressure, especially during elections. One-off measures have been preferred over structural ones to contain the deficit during economic crises. The EU fiscal rules prompted temporary consolidation, but did not permanently change the budgeting process. Key words: fiscal regimes, Markov Switching, Portugal

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & Peter Claeys & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "Fiscal Regime Shifts in Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2009/39, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp412009
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal regimes; markov switching; portugal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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