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The macro impact of the Portuguese Constitutional Court decisions regarding the budgetary proposals of the Portuguese Budget Law (2012, 2013, 2014)

Author

Listed:
  • António Afonso,
  • Jorge Caiado,
  • Miguel St. Aubyn

Abstract

We review the main budgetary measures not accepted by the Portuguese Constitutional Court in the Budget Laws of 2012, 2013 and 2014. Considering the feedback effect of the fiscal impulse, the impact on the budget balance is -0.42% and of -0.34% of GDP respectively for 2013 and for 2014; in both years the impact of the fiscal expansion could result in rather mitigated reductions in the unemployment rate in the range of 0.1 percent; the impact on the government debt level is around 0.42% of GDP in 2013, declining from then on, in a conservative estimate, and about 2.95% of GDP in 2020 in the worst case scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso, & Jorge Caiado, & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2015. "The macro impact of the Portuguese Constitutional Court decisions regarding the budgetary proposals of the Portuguese Budget Law (2012, 2013, 2014)," Working Papers Department of Economics 2015/06, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp062015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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