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Macroeconomic Rates of Return of Public and Private Investment: Crowding-in and Crowding-out Effects

  • António Afonso
  • Miguel St.Aubyn

Using annual data from 14 European Union countries, plus Canada, Japan and the United States, we evaluate the macroeconomic effects of public and private investment through VAR analysis. From impulse response functions, we are able to assess the extent of crowding-in or crowding-out of both components of investment. We also compute the associated macroeconomic rates of return of public and private investment for each country. The results point mostly to the existence of positive effects of public investment and private investment on output. On the other hand, the crowding-in effects of public investment on private investment vary across countries, while the crowding-in effect of private investment on public investment is more generalised.

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File URL: http://pascal.iseg.utl.pt/~depeco/wp/wp062008.pdf
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Paper provided by ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon in its series Working Papers Department of Economics with number 2008/06.

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Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp62008
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC

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  1. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. D'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
  2. David Aschauer, 1988. "Is public expenditure productive?," Staff Memoranda 88-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Miguel St. Aubyn & Álvaro Manuel Pina, 2006. "How should we measure the return on public investment in a VAR?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 8(5), pages 1-4.
  4. Yang Zou, 2006. "Empirical studies on the relationship between public and private investment and GDP growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1259-1270.
  5. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Does public capital crowd out private capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 171-188, September.
  6. Alfredo M. Pereira, 2000. "Is All Public Capital Created Equal?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 513-518, August.
  7. Christophe Kamps, 2004. "The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital: VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1224, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  8. Isabel Argimon & Jose Gonzalez-Paramo & Jose Roldan, 1997. "Evidence of public spending crowding-out from a panel of OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(8), pages 1001-1010.
  9. Stefan Mittnik & Thorsten Neumann, 2001. "Dynamic effects of public investment: Vector autoregressive evidence from six industrialized countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 429-446.
  10. Miguel ST. Aubyn & Álvaro Pina, 2004. "Comparing Macroeconomic Returns on human and Public Capital: An Empirical Analysis of the Portuguese Case (1960-2001)," Working Papers Department of Economics 2004/07, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  11. Roberto Perotti, 2004. "Public investment: another (different) look," Working Papers 277, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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