The interaction between firms and Government in the context of investment decisions: a real options approach
Given the global financial crisis and, particularly, the European sovereign-debt crisis, European countries have the urgent need to promote output growth. However, due to the current financial constraints, it is difficult for the Governments to stimulate economic growth by directly increasing investment. Alternatively, they can promote private investment, either by reducing the uncertainty and costs, or by directly subsidizing those investments. In this paper we try to analyze alternative solutions to promote investment, and hence economic growth, under a context of Government austerity. We develop a real options model in order to study optimal investment decisions, considering both the point of view of firms and Government. So, we incorporate the Government in the baseline real options model, and we use this extended model to drive the optimal behavior for firms and Government on their decision to invest and promote investment, respectively. To be more realistic, the model takes into account, not only inefficiencies (both concerning the implementation and management of the project), but also the economic benefits of investing, i.e., the investment multiplier effect in the economy. We also make a sensitivity analysis for the key parameters and define regions for different types of investment. Alternative solutions are also considered. Among the main conclusions we find that the probability of being optimal for the Government to subsidize private investment rather than investing directly is greater the larger the private investment multiplier effect, the tax rates, the private present value of the profit flows, the private cost of the investment and, also, the inefficiency level of the Government.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.fep.up.pt/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lutfi Erden & Randall G. Holcombe, 2006. "The Linkage Between Public and Private Investment: A Co-integration Analysis of a Panel of Developing Countries," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 479-492, Summer.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002.
"An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2013.
"On The Economic Effects Of Public Infrastructure Investment: A Survey Of The International Evidence,"
Journal of Economic Development,
Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1-37, December.
- Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2013. "On the economic effects of public infrastructure investment:A survey of the international evidence," Working Papers 108, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
- Alfredo Pereira & Jorge Andraz, 2012. "On the economic effects of public infrastructure investment: A survey of the international evidence," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2012_10, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
- Everhart, S.S. & Sumlinski, M.A., 2001. "Trends in Private Investment in Developing countries, Statistics for 1970-200 and the Impact on Private Investment of Corruption and the Quality of Public Investment," Papers 44, World Bank - International Finance Corporation.
- Alfredo M. Pereira, 2001. "On the Effects of Public Investment on Private Investment: What Crowds in What?," Public Finance Review, , vol. 29(1), pages 3-25, January.
- Eduardo A. Cavallo & Christian Daude, 2008.
"Public Investment in Developing Countries: A Blessing or a Curse?,"
IDB Publications (Working Papers)
6750, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Cavallo, Eduardo & Daude, Christian, 2011. "Public investment in developing countries: A blessing or a curse?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 65-81, March.
- Eduardo A. Cavallo & Christian Daude, 2008. "Public Investment in Developing Countries: A Blessing or a Curse?," Research Department Publications 4597, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Maoz, Yishay, 2007.
"Tax, Stimuli of Investment and Firm Value,"
5596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mountford, A.W. & Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 2002.
"What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?,"
2002-31, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2008. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 14551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mountford, Andrew & Uhlig, Harald, 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Chakraborty Shankha & Dabla-Norris Era, 2011.
"The Quality of Public Investment,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,
De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, August.
- Ward Romp & Jakob de Haan, 2007.
"Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey,"
Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik,
Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(s1), pages 6-52, 04.
- Romp, Ward & de Haan, Jakob, 2005. "Public capital and economic growth: a critical survey," EIB Papers 2/2005, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
- Stephen S. Everhart & Mariusz A. Sumlinski, 2001. "Trends in Private Investment in Developing Countries : Statistics for 1970-2000 and the Impact on Private Investment of Corruption and the Quality of Public Investment," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13989.
- Seitz, Helmut, 1994. "Public capital and the demand for private inputs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 287-307, June.
- Roberto Perotti, 2004. "Public investment: another (different) look," Working Papers 277, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- António Afonso & Ludger Schuknecht & Vito Tanzi, 2005.
"Public sector efficiency: An international comparison,"
Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 321-347, June.
- Afonso, António & Schuknecht, Ludger & Tanzi, Vito, 2003. "Public sector efficiency: an international comparison," Working Paper Series 0242, European Central Bank.
- Voss, Graham M., 2002. "Public and private investment in the United States and Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 641-664, August.
- Pennings, Enrico, 2000. "Taxes and stimuli of investment under uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 383-391, February.
- Yang Zou, 2006. "Empirical studies on the relationship between public and private investment and GDP growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1259-1270.
- Inklaar, Robert & Yang, Jing, 2012. "The impact of financial crises and tolerance for uncertainty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 466-480.
- McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
- David Aschauer, 1988.
"Does public capital crowd out private capital?,"
88-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- David Aschauer, 1988.
"Is public expenditure productive?,"
88-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- António Afonso & Miguel St.Aubyn, 2008.
"Macroeconomic Rates of Return of Public and Private Investment: Crowding-in and Crowding-out Effects,"
Working Papers Department of Economics
2008/06, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- António Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2009. "Macroeconomic Rates Of Return Of Public And Private Investment: Crowding-In And Crowding-Out Effects," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(s1), pages 21-39, 09.
- Afonso, António & St. Aubyn, Miguel, 2008. "Macroeconomic rates of return of public and private investment: crowding-in and crowding-out effects," Working Paper Series 0864, European Central Bank.
- Antonio Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, . "Macroeconomic Rates of Return of Public and Private Investment: Crowding-in and Crowding-out Effects," EcoMod2007 23900000, EcoMod.
- Antonio Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2010. "Public and private investment rates of return: evidence for industrialized countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 839-843.
- Barro, R.J., 1988.
"Government Spending In A Simple Model Of Endogenous Growth,"
RCER Working Papers
130, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October.
- Robert J. Barro, 1988. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J., 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth," Scholarly Articles 3451296, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Rajkumar, Andrew Sunil & Swaroop, Vinaya, 2008. "Public spending and outcomes: Does governance matter?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 96-111, April.
- Lee, Seung-Hyun & Makhija, Mona & Paik, Yongsun, 2008. "The value of real options investments under abnormal uncertainty: The case of the Korean economic crisis," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 16-34, January.
- Andrew M. Warner, 2013. "A Framework for Efficient Government Investment," IMF Working Papers 13/58, International Monetary Fund.
- Leeper, Eric M. & Walker, Todd B. & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2010.
"Government investment and fiscal stimulus,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1000-1012, November.
- Isabel Argimon & Jose Gonzalez-Paramo & Jose Roldan, 1997. "Evidence of public spending crowding-out from a panel of OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(8), pages 1001-1010.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:por:fepwps:507. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.