IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gmf/wpaper/2014-24..html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Crowding-in and Crowding-out Effects of Public Investments in the Portuguese Economy

Author

Listed:
  • João Sousa Andrade

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra and GEMF, Portugal)

  • António Portugal Duarte

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra and GEMF, Portugal)

Abstract

This study analyses the effects of public and private investment on Portuguese GDP in the period 1960-2013. After a brief review of the literature based on works developed primarily in the context of VAR analyses, such as those by Pereira and Andraz (2005), and Afonso and St Aubyn (2008), an alternative econometric strategy is proposed. The use of VAR models to estimate the magnitude of crowding-in and crowding-out effects associated with these two components of investment has not been robust. So, we opted for the use of ADL models to estimate the behavioral equations of four variables: output, private investment, public investment, and the real exchange rate. For each of the four equations considered in this study the methodology of Krolzig-Henry (2001, 2005) was applied. Additionally, we also estimate a system of simultaneous equations by the SUR method and calculate the multipliers of the exogenous variables, represented by the current external transfers and the short-run nominal interest rate. Additionally, we tested a model with the first three equations of the system, using the real exchange rate as an exogenous variable. The results point to the existence of a complementarity between private investment and public investment rather than any idea of substitutability. Public investment has positive effects on output and on private investment. The appreciation of the real exchange rate does not have a very significant impact on private and public investment, but it does have a long-lasting negative effect upon output, confirming the presence of a Dutch-disease phenomenon in the Portuguese economy.

Suggested Citation

  • João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2014. "Crowding-in and Crowding-out Effects of Public Investments in the Portuguese Economy," GEMF Working Papers 2014-24, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
  • Handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2014-24.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.uc.pt/gmf/wpaper/wpgemf/gemf_2014-24.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving, and Government," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 271-304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Pereira, Alfredo M & Sagales, Oriol Roca, 1999. "Public Capital Formation and Regional Development in Spain," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 281-294, October.
    3. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    4. Christophe Kamps, 2005. "The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital: VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 12(4), pages 533-558, August.
    5. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2005. "The Properties of Automatic "GETS" Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages 32-61, March.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    7. Merriman, David, 1991. "Public capital and regional output : Another look at some Japanese and American data," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 437-458, February.
    8. Ant Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(34), pages 4439-4454, December.
    9. Sturm, Jan Egbert & de Haan, Jakob, 1995. "Is public expenditure really productive?: New evidence for the USA and The Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 60-72, January.
    10. De Ãvila, Diego Romero & Strauch, Rolf, 2003. "Public finances and long-term growth in Europe - evidence from a panel data analysis," Working Paper Series 246, European Central Bank.
    11. Berndt, Ernst R & Hansson, Bengt, 1992. "Measuring the Contribution of Public Infrastructure Capital in Sweden," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(0), pages 151-168, Supplemen.
    12. João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte & Claude Berthomieu, 2005. "Le Rôle de la Consommation Publique dans la Croissance: le cas de l'Union Européenne," GEMF Working Papers 2005-05, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    13. Stefan Mittnik & Thorsten Neumann, 2001. "Dynamic effects of public investment: Vector autoregressive evidence from six industrialized countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 429-446.
    14. António Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2009. "Macroeconomic Rates Of Return Of Public And Private Investment: Crowding‐In And Crowding‐Out Effects," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(s1), pages 21-39, September.
    15. Shah, Anwar, 1992. "Dynamics of Public Infrastructure, Industrial Productivity and Profitability," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 28-36, February.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, Decembrie.
    17. Roberto Perotti, 2004. "Public investment: another (different) look," Working Papers 277, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    18. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2013. "The Dutch Disease in the Portuguese Economy," GEMF Working Papers 2013-05, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    19. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Does public capital crowd out private capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 171-188, September.
    20. Seitz, Helmut, 1994. "Public capital and the demand for private inputs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 287-307, June.
    21. Cláudia Maria Sonaglio & Marcelo José Braga & Antonio Carvalho Campos, 2010. "Investimento Público e Privado no Brasil: Evidências dos Efeitos Crowding-In e Crowding-Out no Período 1995-2006," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 11(2), pages 383-401.
    22. Lynde, Catherine & Richmond, J, 1993. "Public Capital and Long-Run Costs in U.K. Manufacturing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(419), pages 880-893, July.
    23. Davide Furceri & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "The Impact of Government Spending on the Private Sector: Crowding-out versus Crowding-in Effects"," NIPE Working Papers 6/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    24. Voss, Graham M., 2002. "Public and private investment in the United States and Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 641-664, August.
    25. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2005. "Public Investment in Transportation Infrastructure and Economic Performance in Portugal," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 177-196, May.
    26. Otto, Glenn & Voss, Graham, 1996. "Public Capital and Private Production in Australia," MPRA Paper 52110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Alfredo M. Pereira, 2000. "Is All Public Capital Created Equal?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 513-518, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yijia & Cheng, Lu, 2023. "The role of transport infrastructure in economic growth: Empirical evidence in the UK," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 223-233.
    2. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Ytallo Brito, 2021. "The link between public debt and investment: an empirical assessment from emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(50), pages 5864-5876, October.
    3. Sofia São Marcos & Sofia Vale, 2024. "Is there a nonlinear relationship between public investment and private investment? Evidence from 21 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 887-902, January.
    4. Van Bon Nguyen, 2021. "The relationship between FDI inflows and private investment in Vietnam: Does institutional environment matter?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1151-1162, January.
    5. Oberholzer, Basil, 2023. "Post-growth transition, working time reduction, and the question of profits," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    6. Nusrat Akber & Megha Gupta & Kirtti Ranjan Paltasingh, 2020. "The Crowding-in/ out Debate in Investments in India: Fresh Evidence from NARDL Application," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 9(2), pages 167-189, December.
    7. Branimir Jovanovic, 2017. "Growth forecast errors and government investment and consumption multipliers," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 83-107, January.
    8. Xinshuo Hou & Dongyang Li & Jianghuan Peng, 2022. "Does High-Speed Rail Really Have a Positive Effect on City Consumption? A PSM-DID Approach With China Case," Journal of Regional Economics, Anser Press, vol. 1(1), pages 48-67, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2013. "On The Economic Effects Of Public Infrastructure Investment: A Survey Of The International Evidence," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1-37, December.
    2. Syed Ammad & Qazi Masood Ahmed, 2014. "Dynamic Effects of Energy Sector Public Investment on Sectoral Economic Growth: Experience from Pakistan Economy," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 403-421.
    3. Valter Di Giacinto & Giacinto Micucci & Pasqualino Montanaro, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Infrastructures: A Literature Review and Empirical Analysis on the Case of Italy," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 1, March.
    4. António Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2009. "Macroeconomic Rates Of Return Of Public And Private Investment: Crowding‐In And Crowding‐Out Effects," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(s1), pages 21-39, September.
    5. Federici, Andrea, 2018. "Il rapporto tra capitale pubblico e altre variabili macroeconomiche: un'applicazione empirica [The relationship between public capital and other macroeconomic variables: an empirical application]," MPRA Paper 88516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui Manuel Pereira, 2017. "Infrastructure Investment in Portugal and the Traded/Non-Traded Industry Mix," GEE Papers 0078, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Sep 2017.
    7. Christophe Kamps, 2005. "The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital: VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 12(4), pages 533-558, August.
    8. Ward Romp & Jakob De Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(S1), pages 6-52, April.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1181 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2012. "On The Economic Effects Of Investment In Railroad Infrastructures In Portugal," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 79-107, June.
    11. Jerome Creel & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2007. "Has the Golden Rule of Public Finance Made a Difference in the UK ?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-13, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    12. Mathilde Le Moigne & Francesco Saraceno & Sébastien Villemot, 2016. "Probably Too Little, Certainly Too Late. An Assessment of the Juncker Investment Plan," PSE Working Papers hal-03459360, HAL.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2a4lft86ed8kqpphgfkgrdfrk1 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Pedro R.D. Bom & Jenny E. Ligthart, 2009. "How Productive is Public Capital? A Meta-Regression Analysis," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0912, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    15. Diogo Barbosa & Vitor M. Carvalho & Paulo J. Pereira, 2013. "The interaction between firms and Government in the context of investment decisions: a real options approach," FEP Working Papers 507, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    16. Masood Ahmed Qazi & Syed Ammad, 2021. "Public investment efficiency and sectoral economic growth in Pakistan," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 39(3), pages 450-470, May.
    17. Federici, Andrea, 2018. "Il rapporto tra capitale pubblico e altre variabili macroeconomiche: analisi della letteratura [The relationship between public capital and other macroeconomic variable: a literature review]," MPRA Paper 88515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Inácia Pimentel & Miguel St.Aubyn & Nuno Ribeiro, 2017. "The impact of investment in Public Private Partnerships on Public, Private investment and GDP in Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/13, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    19. Alfredo Marvão Pereira and Rui Manuel Pereira, 2020. "Infrastructure Investment, Labor Productivity, and International Competitiveness: The Case of Portugal," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 1-29, June.
    20. Jérôme Creel & Paola Monperrus‐Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2009. "On The Long‐Term Effects Of Fiscal Policy In The United Kingdom: The Case For A Golden Rule," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(5), pages 580-607, November.
    21. Sylvain Leduc & Daniel J. Wilson, 2012. "Should transportation spending be included in a stimulus program? a review of the literature," Working Paper Series 2012-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    22. Sajad Ahmad Bhat & Javed Ahmad Bhat & Taufeeq Ajaz, 2020. "The Public–Private Investment Nexus In India: Evidence From A Policy Simulation Approach," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(224), pages 101-128, January –.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crowding-in; crowding-out; Portuguese Economy; private investment; public investment; ADL and SUR.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2014-24.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sofia Antunes (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cebucpt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.