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Probably too Little, Certainly too Late. An Assessement of the Juncker Investment Plan

Author

Listed:
  • Mathilde Le Moigne

    (Ecole normale supérieure)

  • Francesco Saraceno

    (OFCE-Sciences Po and Luiss-Sep)

  • Sebastien Villemot

    (OFCE, Sciences Po)

Abstract

This paper aims at quantifying the impact of a stimulus plan based on a public investment push, within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Eurozone economy. We estimate an extension of Leeper et al.'s (2010) model with public capital and time-to-build, to quantify the impact of the European Commission's Investment Plan for Europe (the ''Juncker plan''). The public investment push is assessed in normal times and starting from the zero lower bound, making different hypotheses on private investment leverage and on capital productivity. Then, in order to assess the effectiveness of the Juncker plan, we compare it with the stimulus plan implemented by the Obama administration in 2009. The main conclusion of the paper is that, had it been implemented at the beginning of the crisis, the Juncker plan would have had a significant positive impact. But as it is being launched very late in the crisis, to be effective the plan should be significantly larger in size.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathilde Le Moigne & Francesco Saraceno & Sebastien Villemot, 2016. "Probably too Little, Certainly too Late. An Assessement of the Juncker Investment Plan," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-10, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  • Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:1610
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touze, 2020. "Le multiplicateur d'investissement public," Working Papers hal-03370444, HAL.
    2. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2020. "Fiscal Stimulus in Liquidity Traps: Conventional or Unconventional Policies?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15623, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Francesco Saraceno, 2017. "When Keynes Goes to Brussels: A New Fiscal Rule for the EMU?," Annals of the Fondazione Luigi Einaudi. An Interdisciplinary Journal of Economics, History and Political Science, Fondazione Luigi Einaudi, Torino (Italy), vol. 51(2), pages 131-157, December.
    4. Francesco Saraceno, 2016. "When Keynes goes to Brussels : a new fiscal rule for the EMU," Working Papers hal-03459045, HAL.
    5. António Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2019. "Economic growth, public, and private investment returns in 17 OECD economies," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 18(1), pages 47-65, February.
    6. Francesco Saraceno, 2016. "The ECB: a reluctant leading character of the EMU play," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 33(2), pages 129-151, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public investment; leverage; Juncker plan; zero lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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