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The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations

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  • Summers, Lawrence H.
  • Fatás, Antonio

Abstract

The global financial crisis has permanently lowered the path of GDP in all advanced economies. At the same time, and in response to rising government debt levels, many of these countries have been engaging in fiscal consolidations that have had a negative impact on growth rates. We empirically explore the connections between these two facts by extending to longer horizons the methodology of Blanchard and Leigh (2013) regarding fiscal policy multipliers. Using data seven years after the beginning of the crisis as well as estimates on potential output our analysis suggests that attempts to reduce debt via fiscal consolidations have very likely resulted in a higher debt to GDP ratio through their negative impact on output. Our results provide support for the possibility of self-defeating fiscal consolidations in depressed economies as developed by DeLong and Summers (2012).

Suggested Citation

  • Summers, Lawrence H. & Fatás, Antonio, 2015. "The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations," CEPR Discussion Papers 10902, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10902
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Austerity; Fiscal policy; Great recession; Hysteresis; Persistence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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