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Une analyse empirique du lien entre investissement public et privé

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  • Jérôme Creel
  • Paul Hubert
  • Francesco Saraceno

Abstract

Nous étudions la relation entre investissement public et investissement privé non-résidentiel. Au niveau théorique, l’investissement public peut avoir deux effets contradictoires sur l’investissement privé : un effet d’éviction et un effet d’entraînement. À l’aide de différents modèles empiriques linéaires, appliqués à quatre pays de l’OCDE, nous cherchons à séparer ces deux effets. Nous étudions notamment un modèle VAR dans lequel l’investissement privé, la croissance du PIB et le taux d’intérêt interagissent et sont influencés par l’investissement public et la dette publique, entre autres. Nous vérifions dans quelle mesure la relation entre investissement public et privé varie au cours du temps et dépend du contexte macroéconomique. En outre, nous étudions les effets de débordement internationaux de l’investissement public. En France, l’effet d’entraînement semble l’emporter sur l’effet d’éviction tandis qu’aux États-Unis, un effet d’éviction, certes assez faible, émerge. Aucun résultat robuste ne ressort des données allemandes et britanniques.
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Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Francesco Saraceno, 2015. "Une analyse empirique du lien entre investissement public et privé," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(8), pages 331-356.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_144_0331
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    Cited by:

    1. Mathilde Le Moigne & Francesco Saraceno & Sébastien Villemot, 2016. "Probably Too Little, Certainly Too Late. An Assessment of the Juncker Investment Plan," Sciences Po publications 2016-10, Sciences Po.

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