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Une analyse empirique du lien entre investissement public et privé

Listed author(s):
  • Jérôme Creel
  • Paul Hubert
  • Francesco Saraceno

Nous étudions la relation entre investissement public et investissement privé non-résidentiel. Au niveau théorique, l’investissement public peut avoir deux effets contradictoires sur l’investissement privé : un effet d’éviction et un effet d’entraînement. À l’aide de différents modèles empiriques linéaires, appliqués à quatre pays de l’OCDE, nous cherchons à séparer ces deux effets. Nous étudions notamment un modèle VAR dans lequel l’investissement privé, la croissance du PIB et le taux d’intérêt interagissent et sont influencés par l’investissement public et la dette publique, entre autres. Nous vérifions dans quelle mesure la relation entre investissement public et privé varie au cours du temps et dépend du contexte macroéconomique. En outre, nous étudions les effets de débordement internationaux de l’investissement public. En France, l’effet d’entraînement semble l’emporter sur l’effet d’éviction tandis qu’aux États-Unis, un effet d’éviction, certes assez faible, émerge. Aucun résultat robuste ne ressort des données allemandes et britanniques.

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Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): N° 144 (2015)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 331-356

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Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_144_0331
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