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Economic growth, public, and private investment returns in 17 OECD economies

Author

Listed:
  • António Afonso

    (ISEG-UL – Universidade de Lisboa)

  • Miguel St. Aubyn

    (ISEG-UL – Universidade de Lisboa)

Abstract

We study the macroeconomic effects of public and private investment in 17 OECD economies through a VAR analysis with annual data from 1960 to 2014. From impulse response functions we find that public investment had a positive growth effect in most countries, and a contractionary effect in Finland, UK, Sweden, Japan, and Canada. Public investment led to private investment crowding o ut in Belgium, Ireland, Finland, Canada, Sweden, the UK and crowding-in effects in the rest of the countries. Private investment has a positive growth effect in all countries; crowds-out (crowds-in) public investment in Belgium and Sweden (in the rest of the countries). The partial rates of return of public and private investment are mostly positive. Our results are robust to the ordering of private and public investment in the VAR.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2019. "Economic growth, public, and private investment returns in 17 OECD economies," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 18(1), pages 47-65, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:portec:v:18:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10258-018-0143-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10258-018-0143-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. António Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2009. "Macroeconomic Rates Of Return Of Public And Private Investment: Crowding‐In And Crowding‐Out Effects," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(s1), pages 21-39, September.
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    5. Mathilde Le Moigne & Francesco Saraceno & Sébastien Villemot, 2016. "Probably Too Little, Certainly Too Late. An Assessment of the Juncker Investment Plan," PSE Working Papers hal-03459360, HAL.
    6. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2015. "How Does Fiscal Policy Affect Investment? Evidence from a Large Panel," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 310-327, October.
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    14. Antonio Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2010. "Public and private investment rates of return: evidence for industrialized countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 839-843.
    15. Dreger, Christian & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2014. "On the Relationship between Public and Private Investment in the Euro Area," IZA Discussion Papers 8002, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    17. Xiaoming Xu & Yanyang Yan, 2014. "Does government investment crowd out private investment in China?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-12, March.
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    2. Gianni Carvelli, 2023. "The long-run effects of government expenditure on private investments: a panel CS-ARDL approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(3), pages 620-645, September.
    3. Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Rubio-Guerrero, Juan J., 2022. "The economic effects of fiscal policy: Further evidence for Spain," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 305-313.
    4. Karsten Staehr & Katri Urke, 2022. "The European structural and investment funds and public investment in the EU countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1031-1062, November.
    5. Ibrahim Ari & Muammer Koc, 2020. "Economic Growth, Public and Private Investment: A Comparative Study of China and the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-19, March.
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    7. António Afonso & Jorge Caiado & Omar Al. Kanaan, 2024. "Public and Private Investments: A VAR Analysis of Their Impact of Economic Growth in 18 Advanced Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 11426, CESifo.
    8. Sofia São Marcos & Sofia Vale, 2024. "Is there a nonlinear relationship between public investment and private investment? Evidence from 21 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 887-902, January.
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    12. Andreea Ocolișanu & Gabriela Dobrotă & Dan Dobrotă, 2022. "The Effects of Public Investment on Sustainable Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Emerging Countries in Central and Eastern Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-25, July.
    13. Carvelli, Gianni, 2024. "The dynamic effects of public investments on private capital formation: Modelling a heterogeneous asymmetric cointegration with unobserved global factors," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    14. Evans Kulu, 2023. "Financial stability gap and private investment nexus: Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 35(2), pages 239-250, June.
    15. Baussola, Maurizio & Carvelli, Gianni, 2023. "Public and private investments: Long-run asymmetric effects in France and the US," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Public investment; Private investment; Crowding-in; Macroeconomic rates of return; Impulse response functions; VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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