IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jecfin/v47y2023i3d10.1007_s12197-023-09617-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The long-run effects of government expenditure on private investments: a panel CS-ARDL approach

Author

Listed:
  • Gianni Carvelli

    (Catholic University of the Sacred Heart)

Abstract

We re-explore the link between government expenditure and private investments within a modern econometric framework. Performing a dynamic analysis on a panel of 28 OECD countries over 1990–2019, we account for nonstationarity, country-heterogeneity, and cross-sectional dependence. By estimating an ECM version of the novel CS-ARDL model, we find robust evidence of both short-run and long-run adverse effects of aggregate government expenditure on private investments. Increases in productive expenditure have no significant effect on the long-run dynamics of private investments, whereas reallocating public resources towards productive expenditure enhances them. By contrast, both level increases and shifts of resources towards unproductive expenditure discourage capital formation in the private sector. Using the government budget constraint (GBC) system, we observe that the effects of government expenditure depend on how it is financed. In most cases, the short-run fall in private investments is mainly associated with tax-financed expenditure, while debt-financed expenditure appears to be the most detrimental in the long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianni Carvelli, 2023. "The long-run effects of government expenditure on private investments: a panel CS-ARDL approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(3), pages 620-645, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:47:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s12197-023-09617-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s12197-023-09617-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12197-023-09617-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12197-023-09617-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D. Giannaros & B. Kolluri & M. Panik, 1999. "An Empirical Analysis of The Effects of Government Spending on Capital Investment: Evidence from O.E.C.D. Countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 45-55.
    2. Isabel Argimon & Jose Gonzalez-Paramo & Jose Roldan, 1997. "Evidence of public spending crowding-out from a panel of OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(8), pages 1001-1010.
    3. Stephen M. Miller & Frank S. Russek, 1997. "Fiscal Structures and Economic Growth at the State and Local Level," Public Finance Review, , vol. 25(2), pages 213-237, March.
    4. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    5. H. Ahmed & SM. Miller, 2000. "Crowding‐out and crowding‐in effects of the components of government expenditure," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(1), pages 124-133, January.
    6. Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi, 2016. "Long-Run Effects in Large Heterogeneous Panel Data Models with Cross-Sectionally Correlated Errors," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of man Ullah, volume 36, pages 85-135, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    7. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Roberto Perotti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 571-589, June.
    8. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2015. "Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 45-58.
    9. Donald W. K. Andrews, 2005. "Cross-Section Regression with Common Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(5), pages 1551-1585, September.
    10. Jan Ditzen, 2018. "Estimating dynamic common-correlated effects in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 18(3), pages 585-617, September.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    12. Jan Ditzen, 2021. "Estimating long-run effects and the exponent of cross-sectional dependence: An update to xtdcce2," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 21(3), pages 687-707, September.
    13. Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller & Ismael Sanz, 2011. "The Timing and Persistence of Fiscal Policy Impacts on Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(550), pages 33-58, February.
    14. H. Sonmez Atesoglu & Jamie Emerson, 2008. "Fiscal policy, profits and investment: some additional evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(13), pages 1047-1051.
    15. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    16. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    17. Gerdie Everaert & Tom De Groote, 2016. "Common Correlated Effects Estimation of Dynamic Panels with Cross-Sectional Dependence," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 428-463, March.
    18. Damiaan Persyn & Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Error-correction–based cointegration tests for panel data," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 8(2), pages 232-241, June.
    19. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    20. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    21. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    22. Arnold, Jens & Bassanini, Andrea & Scarpetta, Stefano, 2011. "Solow or Lucas? Testing speed of convergence on a panel of OECD countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 110-123, June.
    23. Adam, Christopher S. & Bevan, David L., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and growth in developing countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 571-597, April.
    24. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    25. António Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2019. "Economic growth, public, and private investment returns in 17 OECD economies," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 18(1), pages 47-65, February.
    26. Tamoya Christie, 2014. "The Effect Of Government Spending On Economic Growth: Testing The Non-Linear Hypothesis," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 183-204, April.
    27. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    28. Markus Eberhardt, 2012. "Estimating panel time-series models with heterogeneous slopes," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 12(1), pages 61-71, March.
    29. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April.
    30. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    31. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    32. Miller, Stephen M & Russek, Frank S, 1997. "Fiscal Structures and Economic Growth: International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 603-613, July.
    33. António Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2009. "Macroeconomic Rates Of Return Of Public And Private Investment: Crowding‐In And Crowding‐Out Effects," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(s1), pages 21-39, September.
    34. Kneller, Richard & Bleaney, Michael F. & Gemmell, Norman, 1999. "Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 171-190, November.
    35. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 393-420.
    36. Luis Servén, 2003. "Real-Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in LDCS," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 212-218, February.
    37. César Calderón & Enrique Moral‐Benito & Luis Servén, 2015. "Is infrastructure capital productive? A dynamic heterogeneous approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 177-198, March.
    38. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    39. repec:hrv:faseco:3353756 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    41. Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller & Ismael Sanz, 2016. "Does the Composition of Government Expenditure Matter for Long-Run GDP Levels?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(4), pages 522-547, August.
    42. Edward F. Blackburne III & Mark W. Frank, 2007. "Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(2), pages 197-208, June.
    43. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Dynamic panel estimation and homogeneity testing under cross section dependence *," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 217-259, June.
    44. Michael Bleaney & Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller, 2001. "Testing the endogenous growth model: public expenditure, taxation, and growth over the long run," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 36-57, February.
    45. Tuan T. Chu & Jens Hölscher & Dermot McCarthy, 2020. "The impact of productive and non-productive government expenditure on economic growth: an empirical analysis in high-income versus low- to middle-income economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2403-2430, May.
    46. Mody, Ashoka & Murshid, Antu Panini, 2005. "Growing up with capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 249-266, January.
    47. Mr. Hyun Park, 2006. "Expenditure Composition and Distortionary Tax for Equitable Economic Growth," IMF Working Papers 2006/165, International Monetary Fund.
    48. Juodis, Artūras & Karabiyik, Hande & Westerlund, Joakim, 2021. "On the robustness of the pooled CCE estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 325-348.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gangopadhyay, Partha & Jain, Siddharth & Bakry, Walid, 2022. "In search of a rational foundation for the massive IT boom in the Australian banking industry: Can the IT boom really drive relationship banking?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Elisabet Rodriguez Llorian & Janelle Mann, 2022. "Exploring the technology–healthcare expenditure nexus: a panel error correction approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 3061-3086, June.
    3. Giampaolo Arachi & Valeria Bucci & Alessandra Casarico, 2015. "Tax structure and macroeconomic performance," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(4), pages 635-662, August.
    4. Jian Xue & Zeeshan Rasool & Raima Nazar & Ahmad Imran Khan & Shaukat Hussain Bhatti & Sajid Ali, 2021. "Revisiting Natural Resources—Globalization-Environmental Quality Nexus: Fresh Insights from South Asian Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-19, April.
    5. Mushtaq Ahmad Malik & Tariq Masood, 2022. "Dynamics of Output Growth and Convergence in the Middle East and North African Countries: Heterogeneous Panel ARDL Approach," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(2), pages 1444-1469, June.
    6. Krieger, Tim & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2020. "Population size and the size of government," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    7. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2022. "Which are the long-run determinants of US outward FDI? Evidence using large long-memory panels," Working Papers 2022.08, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    8. Chakraborty, Saptorshee Kanto & Mazzanti, Massimiliano, 2020. "Energy intensity and green energy innovation: Checking heterogeneous country effects in the OECD," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 328-343.
    9. Shu Wu & Majed Alharthi & Weihua Yin & Qaiser Abbas & Adnan Noor Shah & Saeed ur Rahman & Jamal Khan, 2021. "The Carbon-Neutral Energy Consumption and Emission Volatility: The Causality Analysis of ASEAN Region," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-14, May.
    10. Sanz Labrador, Ismael & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2013. "Política fiscal y crecimiento económico: consideraciones microeconómicas y relaciones macroeconómicas," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 5367, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    11. Chakraborty, Saptorshee Kanto & Mazzanti, Massimiliano, 2021. "Renewable electricity and economic growth relationship in the long run: Panel data econometric evidence from the OECD," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 330-341.
    12. Reed, W. Robert & Zhu, Min, 2017. "On estimating long-run effects in models with lagged dependent variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 302-311.
    13. Lu, Yin & Tian, Tian & Ge, Chen, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of renewable energy, fintech development, natural resources, and environmental regulations on the climate change in the post-covid era," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    14. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2017. "Dutch disease, real effective exchange rate misalignments and their effect on GDP growth in EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 350-370.
    15. Bakry, Walid & Nghiem, Xuan-Hoa & Farouk, Sherine & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Does it hurt or help? Revisiting the effects of ICT on economic growth and energy consumption: A nonlinear panel ARDL approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 597-617.
    16. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2016. "Controversies over the Size of the Public Budget," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-34, December.
    17. Goya, Daniel, 2020. "The exchange rate and export variety: A cross-country analysis with long panel estimators," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 649-665.
    18. Lenkei, Balint & Mustafa, Ghulam & Vecchi, Michela, 2018. "Growth in emerging economies: Is there a role for education?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 240-253.
    19. Fisera, Boris & Workie Tiruneh, Menbere & Hojdan, David, 2021. "Currency depreciations in emerging economies: A blessing or a curse for external debt management?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 132-165.
    20. Ihsan Bozok & Bahar Sen Dogan & Caglar Yunculer, 2015. "Estimating Income and Price Elasticity of Turkish Exports with Heterogeneous Panel Time-Series Methods," Working Papers 1526, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CS-ARDL; Fiscal policy; Government expenditure; Panel data; Private investments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:47:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s12197-023-09617-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.