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Solow or Lucas? Testing Speed of Convergence on a Panel of OECD Countries


  • Arnold, Jens

    () (OECD)

  • Bassanini, Andrea

    () (OECD)

  • Scarpetta, Stefano

    () (OECD)


We test whether the growth experience of a sample of 21 OECD countries over the past three decades is more consistent with the augmented Solow model or the Uzawa-Lucas model, by exploiting the different non-linear restrictions implied by them as regards the relationship between factor shares and speed of convergence. Using cross-country/time-series data, we specify our growth regression without imposing cross-country homogeneity restrictions on the speed of convergence and short-run parameters. Indeed, both theoretical models imply that the speed of convergence to the steady state differs across countries due to heterogeneity in population growth, technical change or progressiveness of income taxes. Our estimated speed of convergence is too fast to be compatible with the augmented Solow model, but is consistent with the Uzawa-Lucas model with constant returns to scale. Our main findings are robust to several robustness tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnold, Jens & Bassanini, Andrea & Scarpetta, Stefano, 2010. "Solow or Lucas? Testing Speed of Convergence on a Panel of OECD Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 5261, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5261

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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Marc Fournier, 2016. "The Positive Effect of Public Investment on Potential Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1347, OECD Publishing.
    2. Jochen Hartwig & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2017. "Testing the Grossman model of medical spending determinants with macroeconomic panel data," Chemnitz Economic Papers 001, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology, revised Feb 2017.
    3. Pop Silaghi, Monica Ioana & Alexa, Diana & Jude, Cristina & Litan, Cristian, 2014. "Do business and public sector research and development expenditures contribute to economic growth in Central and Eastern European Countries? A dynamic panel estimation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 108-119.
    4. Julien Malizard, 2016. "Military expenditure and economic growth in the European Union: Evidence from SIPRI’s extended dataset," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 38-44, October.
    5. Boris Cournède & Oliver Denk & Peter Hoeller, 2015. "Finance and Inclusive Growth," OECD Economic Policy Papers 14, OECD Publishing.
    6. Gilberto Gonz'alez-Parra & Benito Chen-Charpentier & Abraham J. Arenas & Miguel Diaz-Rodriguez, 2015. "Mathematical modeling of physical capital using the spatial Solow model," Papers 1504.04388,
    7. Hosoya, Kei, 2016. "Recovery from natural disaster: A numerical investigation based on the convergence approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 410-420.
    8. Hartwig, Jochen, 2014. "Testing the Uzawa–Lucas model with OECD data," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 144-156.
    9. Herbst, Mikolaj & Rok, Jakub, 2013. "Mobility of human capital and its effect on regional economic development. Review of theory and empirical literature," MPRA Paper 45755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Giampaolo Arachi & Valeria Bucci & Alessandra Casarico, 2015. "Tax structure and macroeconomic performance," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(4), pages 635-662, August.
    11. Stojkoski, Viktor & Kocarev, Ljupco, 2017. "The Relationship Between Growth and Economic Complexity: Evidence from Southeastern and Central Europe," MPRA Paper 77837, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    12. Mihaela Simionescu, 2015. "The Impact Of Economic Crisis On Inflation Convergence In The European Union. A Panel Data Approach," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 37-46, June.

    More about this item


    PMG estimators; AK models; human capital; speed of convergence; panel data;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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