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Macroeconomic rates of return of public and private investment: crowding-in and crowding-out effects

Author

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  • Afonso, António
  • St. Aubyn, Miguel

Abstract

Using annual data from 14 European Union countries, plus Canada, Japan and the United States, we evaluate the macroeconomic effects of public and private investment through VAR analysis. From impulse response functions, we are able to assess the extent of crowding-in or crowding-out of both components of investment. We also compute the associated macroeconomic rates of return of public and private investment for each country. The results point mostly to the existence of positive effects of public investment and private investment on output. On the other hand, the crowding-in effects of public investment on private investment vary across countries, while the crowding-in effect of private investment on public investment is more generalised. JEL Classification: C32, E22, E62

Suggested Citation

  • Afonso, António & St. Aubyn, Miguel, 2008. "Macroeconomic rates of return of public and private investment: crowding-in and crowding-out effects," Working Paper Series 864, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2008864
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Union; fiscal policy; impulse response; private investment; public investment; vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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