IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ise/isegwp/wp72004.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Comparing Macroeconomic Returns on human and Public Capital: An Empirical Analysis of the Portuguese Case (1960-2001)

Author

Listed:
  • Miguel ST. Aubyn
  • Álvaro Pina

Abstract

The impact of human and public capital on growth is a major issue in economic theory and in policy evaluation. Using a cointegrated VAR, we estimate a Cobb-Douglas production function for Portugal with public and human capital. Return rates are then computed with and without dynamic feedbacks. Without these, human capital yields a return comparable to private investment, and smaller than public investment. Considering dynamic feedbacks, private capital responds positively to a shock in public capital, but negatively to a shock in human capital. Consequently, the dynamic feedbacks return on human capital is much lower than on public capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel ST. Aubyn & Álvaro Pina, 2004. "Comparing Macroeconomic Returns on human and Public Capital: An Empirical Analysis of the Portuguese Case (1960-2001)," Working Papers Department of Economics 2004/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp72004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pascal.iseg.utl.pt/~depeco/wp/wp072004.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mikael Lindahl & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Education for Growth: Why and for Whom?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1101-1136, December.
    2. Angel de la Fuente & Rafael Doménech, 2006. "Human Capital in Growth Regressions: How Much Difference Does Data Quality Make?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1-36, March.
    3. Raymond G. Batina, 1999. "On the long run effect of public capital on aggregate output: Estimation and sensitivity analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 711-717.
    4. Rafael Flores De Frutos & Mercedes Gracia-Diez & Teodosio Perez, 1998. "Public capital stock and economic growth: an analysis of the Spanish economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 985-994.
    5. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    6. Blanchard, Olivier J & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2004. "Improving the SGP Through a Proper Accounting of Public Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 4220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Gramlich, Edward M, 1994. "Infrastructure Investment: A Review Essay," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1176-1196, September.
    8. John A. Tatom, 1991. "Public capital and private sector performance," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 3-15.
    9. Buti, Marco & Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Franco, Daniele, 2003. "Revisiting the stability and growth pact: grand design or internal adjustment?," Seminarios y Conferencias 6567, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    10. Barbara Sianesi & John Van Reenen, 2003. "The Returns to Education: Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 157-200, April.
    11. Pereira, Alfredo Marvao & Roca-Sagales, Oriol, 2003. "Spillover effects of public capital formation: evidence from the Spanish regions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 238-256, March.
    12. Aurora Teixeira & Natércia Fortuna, 2003. "Human Capital, Innovation Capability and Economic Growth," FEP Working Papers 131, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    13. Daniel Cohen & Marcelo Soto, 2007. "Growth and human capital: good data, good results," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 51-76, March.
    14. Charles I. Jones, 2002. "Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 220-239, March.
    15. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-563, July.
    16. David Alan Aschauer, 1990. "Why is infrastructure important?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 34, pages 21-68.
    17. Angel de la Fuente & Antonio Ciccone, 2003. "Human capital in a global and knowledge-based economy," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 562.03, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    18. William Crowder & Daniel Himarios, 1997. "Balanced growth and public capital: an empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(8), pages 1045-1053.
    19. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    20. Lau, Sau-Him Paul & Sin, Chor-Yiu, 1997. "Public Infrastructure and Economic Growth: Time-Series Properties and Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 73(221), pages 125-135, June.
    21. Barbara Sianesi, 2002. "The returns to education: a review of the empirical macro-economic literature," IFS Working Papers W02/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    22. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-334, June.
    23. Buti, Marco, 2003. "Revisiting the stability and growth pact: grand design or internal adjustment?," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34908, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    24. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Does public capital crowd out private capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 171-188, September.
    25. Pereira, Alfredo M. & de Frutos, Rafael Flores, 1999. "Public Capital Accumulation and Private Sector Performance," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 300-322, September.
    26. Jenny E Ligthart, 2000. "Public Capital and Output Growth in Portugal; An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 00/11, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Everaert, Gerdie, 2003. "Balanced growth and public capital: an empirical analysis with I(2) trends in capital stock data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 741-763, July.
    28. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    29. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Human Capital and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 12-17, May.
    30. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2005. "Public Investment in Transportation Infrastructure and Economic Performance in Portugal," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 177-196, May.
    31. Alfredo M. Pereira, 2000. "Is All Public Capital Created Equal?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 513-518, August.
    32. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Emanuela Marrocu & Raffaele Paci, 2010. "The effects of public capital on the productivity of the Italian regions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 989-1002.
    2. Ester Gomes da Silva, 2010. "Capital services estimates in Portuguese industries, 1977–2003," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 9(1), pages 35-74, April.
    3. Basil Dalamagas & Stefanos Tantos, 2016. "Optimal Versus Actual Maturity of Government Debt: The Case of Greece," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(3), pages 25-52, July-Sept.
    4. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2013. "On The Economic Effects Of Public Infrastructure Investment: A Survey Of The International Evidence," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1-37, December.
    5. António Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2009. "Macroeconomic Rates Of Return Of Public And Private Investment: Crowding-In And Crowding-Out Effects," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(s1), pages 21-39, September.
    6. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2012. "On The Economic Effects Of Investment In Railroad Infrastructures In Portugal," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 79-107, June.
    7. Frederick L Joutz & Yasser Abdih, 2008. "The Impact of Public Capital, Human Capital, and Knowledge on Aggregate Output," IMF Working Papers 08/218, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Pereira, João & St. Aubyn, Miguel, 2009. "What level of education matters most for growth?: Evidence from Portugal," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 67-73, February.
    9. Erasmo Papagni & Amedeo Lepore & Emanuele Felice & Anna Laura Baraldi & Maria Rosaria Alfano, 2018. "Public Investment and Growth Accelerations: The Case of Southern Italy, 1951-1995," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2018/10, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    10. Bottasso, Anna & Castagnetti, Carolina & Conti, Maurizio, 2013. "And yet they Co-move! Public capital and productivity in OECD," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 713-729.
    11. Inácia Pimentel & Miguel St.Aubyn & Nuno Ribeiro, 2017. "The impact of investment in Public Private Partnerships on Public, Private investment and GDP in Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/13, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    12. António Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2016. "Economic Growth and Public and Private Investment Returns," Working Papers Department of Economics 2016/14, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    13. Jalil, Abdul & Idrees, Muhammad, 2013. "Modeling the impact of education on the economic growth: Evidence from aggregated and disaggregated time series data of Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 383-388.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Human capital; public capital; economic growth; Portugal.;

    JEL classification:

    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp72004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vitor Escaria). General contact details of provider: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.