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Dynamic macroeconomic effects of public capital: evidence from regional Italian data

Author

Listed:
  • Valter Di Giacinto

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Giacinto Micucci

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Pasqualino Montanaro

    () (Bank of Italy JEL classification: C32, H54, R53)

Abstract

This paper assesses the effects of public capital in Italy on the main macroeconomic aggregates: GDP, private capital and labour. A cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model, in line with recent advancements in the field, allows us to take into account the complex nexus of direct and indirect links between the variables. We find a persistent increase in GDP in response to a positive shock to public capital; this result is mainly attributable to a strong stimulus exerted by public infrastructures on private capital (crowding in). The positive effects of public capital are quite pervasive across Italy, albeit to differing extents. In particular, a higher elasticity of GDP to public capital is estimated for the South, whereas marginal productivity turns out to be higher in the Centre-North. This suggests that public capital has a lower economic return in the South, bearing out the existence of a potential conflict between equity and efficiency goals. Finally, we indirectly document the existence of positive spillover effects at the regional level, allowing individual regions to benefit from the endowment of public capital in the rest of the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Valter Di Giacinto & Giacinto Micucci & Pasqualino Montanaro, 2009. "Dynamic macroeconomic effects of public capital: evidence from regional Italian data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 733, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_733_09
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Valter Di Giacinto & Giacinto Micucci & Pasqualino Montanaro, 2012. "Network effects of public transport infrastructure: Evidence on Italian regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(3), pages 515-541, August.
    2. Valter Di Giacinto & Giacinto Micucci & Pasqualino Montanaro, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Infrastructures: A Literature Review and Empirical Analysis on the Case of Italy," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 1, March.
    3. Maria Jennifer Grisorio & Francesco Prota, 2015. "The Impact of Fiscal Decentralization on the Composition of Public Expenditure: Panel Data Evidence from Italy," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(12), pages 1941-1956, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    public capital; crowding in effects; Italian regional divides; VAR models;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • R53 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Public Facility Location Analysis; Public Investment and Capital Stock

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