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Estimating Potential Output with a Production Function for France, Germany and Italy


  • Baghli, M.
  • Cahn, C.
  • Villetelle, J-P.


This paper discusses the supply conditions for economic growth in terms of potential GDP estimated by the production function approach for France, Germany and Italy for the 1986:2003 period. The aim of this study is twofold: first, we keep a consistent framework as regards national account institutional sectors. Second, after defining Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in the so-called productive sector from the Solow residual, we specify it in a general framework for the three countries as a function of a time trend corrected for the effects of the age of equipments and the capacity utilisation rate (CUR). This framework allows to distinguish temporal considerations: in the medium to long term, the variables that could generate short to medium term fluctuations in potential output growth are assumed to be stable at a structural level. This implies modifications of the functional specifications related to the time horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Baghli, M. & Cahn, C. & Villetelle, J-P., 2006. "Estimating Potential Output with a Production Function for France, Germany and Italy," Working papers 146, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:146

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Dave Turner & Pete Richardson & Sylvie Rauffet, 1996. "Modelling the Supply Side of the Seven Major OECD Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 167, OECD Publishing.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. Gilbert Cette & Daniel Szpiro, 1989. "Une interprétation du ralentissement de la productivité industrielle au moment du second choc pétrolier," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 87(1), pages 33-42.
    4. Cette, Gilbert & Mairesse, Jacques & Kocoglu, Yusuf, 2005. "ICT diffusion and potential output growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 231-234, May.
    5. Dan Usher, 1980. "The Measurement of Capital," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ushe80-1, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Cahn & Arthur Saint-Guilhem, 2010. "Potential output growth in several industrialised countries a comparison," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 139-165, August.
    2. Valter Di Giacinto & Giacinto Micucci & Pasqualino Montanaro, 2010. "Dynamic Macroeconomic Effects of Public Capital: Evidence from Regional Italian Data," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 69(1), pages 29-66, April.

    More about this item


    Potential growth ; Production function ; Total factor productivity ; Age of equipments.;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence


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