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ICT Diffusion and Potential Output Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Cette, G.
  • Mairesse, J.
  • Kocoglu, Y.

Abstract

The sustained increase in productivity gains from the spread of ICTs may increase potential output growth in the medium to long term via capital deepening effects and total factor productivity (TFP) gains, and in the short to medium term via the lagged adjustment of wages to productivity gains. The orders of magnitude resulting from the assessment data presented indicate that the medium to long-term effect could be significant. However, there does not appear to be any empirical evidence to support the existence of the temporary short to medium-term effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Cette, G. & Mairesse, J. & Kocoglu, Y., 2004. "ICT Diffusion and Potential Output Growth," Working papers 112, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:112
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gilbert Cette & Jacques Mairesse & Yussuf Kocoglu, 2000. "La mesure de l'investissement en technologies de l'information et de la communication : quelques considérations méthodologiques," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 339(1), pages 73-91.
    2. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006. "Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the US Growth Resurgence," Chapters,in: The New Economy and Beyond, chapter 2 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Nicholas Oulton, 2002. "ICT and Productivity Growth in the United Kingdom," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 363-379.
    4. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2007. "Information Technology and the G7 Economies," NBER Chapters,in: Hard-to-Measure Goods and Services: Essays in Honor of Zvi Griliches, pages 325-350 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2000. "The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s: is information technology the story?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Laurence Ball & Robert R. Tchaidze, 2002. "The Fed and the New Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 108-114, May.
    7. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 1-32, March.
    9. Gust, Christopher & Marquez, Jaime, 2004. "International comparisons of productivity growth: the role of information technology and regulatory practices," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 33-58, February.
    10. Crafts, Nicholas, 2002. "The Solow Productivity Paradox in Historical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 3142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Cette, Gilbert & Mairesse, Jacques & Kocoglu, Yusuf, 2005. "ICT diffusion and potential output growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 231-234, May.
    12. Christopher J. Gust & Jaime R. Marquez, 2000. "Productivity developments abroad," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 665-681.
    13. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 49-74, Fall.
    14. Oliner, Stephen D. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2003. "Information technology and productivity: where are we now and where are we going?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 477-503, July.
    15. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 115-136, Fall.
    16. Paul Schreyer, 2000. "The Contribution of Information and Communication Technology to Output Growth: A Study of the G7 Countries," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2000/2, OECD Publishing.
    17. Dirk Pilat & Franck Lee, 2001. "Productivity Growth in ICT-producing and ICT-using Industries: A Source of Growth Differentials in the OECD?," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2001/4, OECD Publishing.
    18. Robert E. Litan & Alice M. Rivlin, 2001. "Projecting the Economic Impact of the Internet," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 313-317, May.
    19. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2001. "What drives productivity growth?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 37-59.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Cahn & Arthur Saint-Guilhem, 2010. "Potential output growth in several industrialised countries a comparison," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 139-165, August.
    2. Francesco Venturini, 2009. "The long-run impact of ICT," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 497-515, December.
    3. Cette, G., 2014. "Does ICT remain a powerful engine of growth?," Working papers 476, Banque de France.
    4. Rath, Badri Narayan, 2016. "Does the digital divide across countries lead to convergence? New international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 75-82.
    5. Najarzadeh, Reza & Rahimzadeh, Farzad & Reed, Michael, 2014. "Does the Internet increase labor productivity? Evidence from a cross-country dynamic panel," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 986-993.
    6. Diego Aboal & Ezequiel Tacsir, 2015. "Innovation and Productivity in Services and Manufacturing: The Role of ICT Investment," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7381, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Oulton, Nicholas, 2012. "Long term implications of the ICT revolution: Applying the lessons of growth theory and growth accounting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1722-1736.
    8. Nicholas Oulton, 2013. "Medium and long run prospects for UK growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis," Discussion Papers 1307, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    9. repec:afc:cliome:v:12:y:2018:i:1:p:61-97 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Rémy Lecat & Gilbert Cette & Carole Ly-Marin, 2017. "Long-term growth and productivity projections in advanced countries," Post-Print hal-01724616, HAL.
    11. Choi, Changkyu, 2010. "The effect of the Internet on service trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 102-104, November.
    12. A. Bergeaud & G. Cette & R. Lecat, 2016. "The role of production factor quality and technology diffusion in 20th century productivity growth," Working papers 588, Banque de France.
    13. repec:spr:cliomt:v:12:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11698-016-0149-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2018. "The role of production factor quality and technology diffusion in twentieth-century productivity growth," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 12(1), pages 61-97, January.
    15. C. Rigo, 2005. "The potential growth of the Belgian economy and its determinants," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 45-64, September.
    16. Cette, Gilbert & Mairesse, Jacques & Kocoglu, Yusuf, 2005. "ICT diffusion and potential output growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 231-234, May.
    17. Gilbert CETTE, 2015. "Which Role for ICTs as a Productivity Driver Over the Last Years and the Next Future?," Communications & Strategies, IDATE, Com&Strat dept., vol. 1(100), pages 65-83, 4th quart.
    18. Baghli, M. & Cahn, C. & Villetelle, J-P., 2006. "Estimating Potential Output with a Production Function for France, Germany and Italy," Working papers 146, Banque de France.
    19. Gilbert Cette & Christian Pfister, 2004. "Challenges of the “New Economy” for Monetary Policy," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 8, pages 27-36, Spring.
    20. Patrick Bongo, 2005. "The Impact of ICT on Economic Growth," Development and Comp Systems 0501008, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth ; potential output growth; ICT ; investment ; new economy;

    JEL classification:

    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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