IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bfr/banfra/112.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

ICT Diffusion and Potential Output Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Cette, G.
  • Mairesse, J.
  • Kocoglu, Y.

Abstract

The sustained increase in productivity gains from the spread of ICTs may increase potential output growth in the medium to long term via capital deepening effects and total factor productivity (TFP) gains, and in the short to medium term via the lagged adjustment of wages to productivity gains. The orders of magnitude resulting from the assessment data presented indicate that the medium to long-term effect could be significant. However, there does not appear to be any empirical evidence to support the existence of the temporary short to medium-term effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Cette, G. & Mairesse, J. & Kocoglu, Y., 2004. "ICT Diffusion and Potential Output Growth," Working papers 112, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:112
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/working-paper_112_2004.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gilbert Cette & Jacques Mairesse & Yussuf Kocoglu, 2000. "La mesure de l'investissement en technologies de l'information et de la communication : quelques considérations méthodologiques," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 339(1), pages 73-91.
    2. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006. "Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the US Growth Resurgence," Chapters, in: Dennis W. Jansen (ed.), The New Economy and Beyond, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Nicholas Oulton, 2002. "ICT and Productivity Growth in the United Kingdom," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 363-379.
    4. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2007. "Information Technology and the G7 Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Hard-to-Measure Goods and Services: Essays in Honor of Zvi Griliches, pages 325-350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Gilbert Cette & Jacques Mairesse & Yusuf Kocoglu, 2002. "Croissance économique et diffusion des TIC : le cas de la France sur longue période (1980-2000)," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 16(3), pages 155-192.
    6. Christian Pfister & Gilbert Cette, 2002. ""Nouvelle économie" et politique monétaire," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 53(3), pages 669-677.
    7. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2000. "The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s: is information technology the story?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Laurence Ball & Robert R. Tchaidze, 2002. "The Fed and the New Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 108-114, May.
    9. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 1-32, March.
    11. Gust, Christopher & Marquez, Jaime, 2004. "International comparisons of productivity growth: the role of information technology and regulatory practices," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 33-58, February.
    12. Crafts, Nicholas, 2002. "The Solow Productivity Paradox in Historical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 3142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Cette, Gilbert & Mairesse, Jacques & Kocoglu, Yusuf, 2005. "ICT diffusion and potential output growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 231-234, May.
    14. Christopher J. Gust & Jaime R. Marquez, 2000. "Productivity developments abroad," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 86(Oct), pages 665-681, October.
    15. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 49-74, Fall.
    16. Oliner, Stephen D. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2003. "Information technology and productivity: where are we now and where are we going?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 477-503, July.
    17. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 115-136, Fall.
    18. Paul Schreyer, 2000. "The Contribution of Information and Communication Technology to Output Growth: A Study of the G7 Countries," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2000/2, OECD Publishing.
    19. Dirk Pilat & Franck Lee, 2001. "Productivity Growth in ICT-producing and ICT-using Industries: A Source of Growth Differentials in the OECD?," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2001/4, OECD Publishing.
    20. Robert E. Litan & Alice M. Rivlin, 2001. "Projecting the Economic Impact of the Internet," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 313-317, May.
    21. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2001. "What drives productivity growth?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 37-59.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Cahn & Arthur Saint-Guilhem, 2010. "Potential output growth in several industrialised countries a comparison," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 139-165, August.
    2. A. Bergeaud & G. Cette & R. Lecat, 2016. "The role of production factor quality and technology diffusion in 20th century productivity growth," Working papers 588, Banque de France.
    3. Francesco Venturini, 2009. "The long-run impact of ICT," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 497-515, December.
    4. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2018. "The role of production factor quality and technology diffusion in twentieth-century productivity growth," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 12(1), pages 61-97, January.
    5. Cette, G., 2014. "Does ICT remain a powerful engine of growth?," Working papers 476, Banque de France.
    6. Rath, Badri Narayan, 2016. "Does the digital divide across countries lead to convergence? New international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 75-82.
    7. Diego Aboal & Ezequiel Tacsir, 2018. "Innovation and productivity in services and manufacturing: the role of ICT," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 221-241.
    8. Gilbert Cette & Christian Pfister, 2004. "Challenges of the “New Economy” for Monetary Policy," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 8, pages 27-36, Spring.
    9. Najarzadeh, Reza & Rahimzadeh, Farzad & Reed, Michael, 2014. "Does the Internet increase labor productivity? Evidence from a cross-country dynamic panel," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 986-993.
    10. Aboal D. & Tacsir E., 2015. "Innovation and productivity in services and manufacturing : The role of ICT investment," MERIT Working Papers 2015-012, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    11. Oulton, Nicholas, 2012. "Long term implications of the ICT revolution: Applying the lessons of growth theory and growth accounting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1722-1736.
    12. Nicholas Oulton, 2013. "Medium and long run prospects for UK growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis," Discussion Papers 1307, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    13. C. Rigo, 2005. "The potential growth of the Belgian economy and its determinants," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 45-64, September.
    14. Cette, Gilbert & Mairesse, Jacques & Kocoglu, Yusuf, 2005. "ICT diffusion and potential output growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 231-234, May.
    15. Mustapha Baghli & Christophe Cahn & Jean-Pierre Villetelle, 2006. "Estimating Potential Output with a Production Function for France, Germany and Italy," Springer Books, in: Convergence or Divergence in Europe?, pages 161-183, Springer.
    16. Gilbert CETTE, 2015. "Which Role for ICTs as a Productivity Driver Over the Last Years and the Next Future?," Communications & Strategies, IDATE, Com&Strat dept., vol. 1(100), pages 65-83, 4th quart.
    17. Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat & Carole Ly-Marin, 2017. "Long-term growth and productivity projections in advanced countries," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 71-90.
    18. Choi, Changkyu, 2010. "The effect of the Internet on service trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 102-104, November.
    19. Patrick Bongo, 2005. "The Impact of ICT on Economic Growth," Development and Comp Systems 0501008, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gilbert Cette & Christian Pfister, 2004. "Challenges of the “New Economy” for Monetary Policy," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 8, pages 27-36, Spring.
    2. Cette, Gilbert & Mairesse, Jacques & Kocoglu, Yusuf, 2005. "Effets de la diffusion des technologies de l’information sur la croissance potentielle et observée," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 81(1), pages 203-230, Mars-Juin.
    3. Gilbert Cette & Jacques Mairesse & Yusuf Kocoglu, 2004. "Diffusion des TIC et croissance potentielle," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 114(1), pages 77-97.
    4. Gust, Christopher & Marquez, Jaime, 2004. "International comparisons of productivity growth: the role of information technology and regulatory practices," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 33-58, February.
    5. Pierre-Alain Muet, 2006. "Impacts économiques de la révolution numérique," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 57(3), pages 347-375.
    6. Oulton, Nicholas, 2012. "Long term implications of the ICT revolution: Applying the lessons of growth theory and growth accounting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1722-1736.
    7. Mirko Draca & Raffaella Sadun & John Van Reenen, 2006. "Productivity and ICT: A Review of the Evidence," CEP Discussion Papers dp0749, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Gilbert Cette & Jacques Mairesse & Yusuf Kocoglu, 2002. "The Diffusion of ICTs and Growth of the French Economy over the Long-term, 1980-2000," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 4, pages 27-38, Spring.
    9. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2004. "The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth, or Does Information Technology Explain Why Productivity Accelerated in the United States But Not in the United Kingdom?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 9-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Oliner, Stephen D. & Sichel, Daniel E. & Stiroh, Kevin J., 2008. "Explaining a productive decade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 633-673.
    11. Fernando Lera & Margarita Billón, 2004. "The North-South Digital Divide in Information and Communication Technologies Development: the Case for Spanish Regions," ERSA conference papers ersa04p307, European Regional Science Association.
    12. Belorgey, Nicolas & Lecat, Remy & Maury, Tristan-Pierre, 2006. "Determinants of productivity per employee: An empirical estimation using panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 153-157, May.
    13. Najeh AISSAOUI, 2017. "ICT and growth gap between nations: Evidence from MENA region," E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics., E3 Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 026-037.
    14. Jonathan Temple, 2002. "The Assessment: The New Economy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 241-264.
    15. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2008. "A Retrospective Look at the U.S. Productivity Growth Resurgence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 3-24, Winter.
    16. Gilbert Cette & Aurélien Devillard & Vincenzo Spiezia, 2020. "Growth factors in developed countries: A 1960-2019 growth accounting decomposition," Working Papers halshs-02958226, HAL.
    17. Bayoumi, Tamim & Haacker, Markus, 2002. "It's Not What You Make, It's How You Use IT: Measuring the Welfare Benefits of the IT Revolution Across Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3555, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Aboal D. & Tacsir E., 2015. "Innovation and productivity in services and manufacturing : The role of ICT investment," MERIT Working Papers 2015-012, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    19. Lach, Saul & Shiff, Gil & Trajtenberg, Manuel, 2008. "Together but Apart: ICT and Productivity Growth in Israel," CEPR Discussion Papers 6732, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Johanna Melka & Nanno Mulder & Laurence Nayman & Soledad Zignago, 2003. "Skills, Technology and Growth is ICT the Key to Success ? An Analysis of ICT Impact on French Growth," Working Papers 2003-04, CEPII research center.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth ; potential output growth; ICT ; investment ; new economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael brassart). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdfgvfr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.