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Which Role for ICTs as a Productivity Driver Over the Last Years and the Next Future?

Author

Listed:
  • Gilbert CETTE

    (Banque de France, Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, EHESS)

Abstract

This paper deals with the role of ICTs in the recent productivity slowdown, and with their possible future impact on productivity in developed countries: the United States (US), the Euro Area (EA), the United Kingdom (UK) and Japan. Few papers analyze the recent slowdown of the ICT contribution to productivity growth, and these papers, which concern only the US, disagree, as it will be stressed, on some important aspects. Some of the main outputs of our analysis are the following: i) A dramatic productivity slowdown has happened in the U.S. and other developed areas since the early 2000s; ii) This productivity slowdown seems to be at least partly linked to a decrease of ICT, and more precisely of chip performance gains, and to the end of the ICT increasing diffusion as a factor of production; iii) A growing attention given by chip producers to reduce heat (or, in other words, power consumption) could have contributed to the chip performance (in terms of clock speed) slowdown; iv) Some big ICT improvements will happen in the future, the next operational probably being the 3D chip; v) Large productivity gains could also be generated from an extension of the use of available chip capacities in a lot of areas, since 2005 this development being called by ITRS the 'More than Moore' process; vi) Benefits from technological changes and from the 'More than Moore' process will partly depend on institutional appropriate changes, for example concerning regulations on the labor and product markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilbert CETTE, 2015. "Which Role for ICTs as a Productivity Driver Over the Last Years and the Next Future?," Communications & Strategies, IDATE, Com&Strat dept., vol. 1(100), pages 65-83, 4th quart.
  • Handle: RePEc:idt:journl:cs10003
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    File URL: http://repec.idate.org/RePEc/idt/journl/CS10003/CS100_CETTE.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcel P. Timmer & Robert Inklaar & Mary O'Mahony & Bart van Ark, 2011. "Productivity and Economic Growth in Europe: A Comparative Industry Perspective," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 21, pages 3-23, Spring.
    2. Aghion, Philippe & Askenazy, Philippe & Bourlès, Renaud & Cette, Gilbert & Dromel, Nicolas, 2009. "Education, market rigidities and growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 62-65, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat & Carole Ly-Marin, 2017. "Long-term growth and productivity projections in advanced countries," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 71-90.
    2. Stephane Ciriani & Marc Lebourges, 2016. "The role of market power in economic growth: an analysis of the differences between EU and US competition policy theory, practice and outcomes," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 5(1), pages 5-28, June.
    3. Zoltan Csefalvay, 2019. "What are the policy options? A systematic review of policy responses to the impacts of robotisation and automation on the labour market," JRC Working Papers on Corporate R&D and Innovation 2019-02, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    4. repec:nse:ecosta:ecostat_2017_494-495-496_2 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ICT; productivity; growth; innovation.;

    JEL classification:

    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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