IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01457333.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Le produit intérieur brut par habitant sur longue période en France et dans les pays avancés : le rôle de la productivité et de l'emploi

Author

Listed:
  • Antonin Bergeaud

    (LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Gilbert Cette

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France, GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)

  • Rémy Lecat

    () (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

Abstract

Sur la période 1890-2012, le produit intérieur brut par habitant a connu une très forte progression dans les pays avancés, principalement grâce à l'augmentation de la productivité globale des facteurs (PGF) et de l'intensité capitalistique. Cette progression, correspondant par exemple en France à un PIB neuf fois plus élevé en fin de période, n'a pas été régulière : elle connait de fortes fluctuations liées à des chocs globaux dont les effets ne sont pas nécessairement identiques d'un pays à l'autre. Les hiérarchies de PIB par habitant entre pays, qui placent les États-Unis au premier rang pendant la plus grande partie du XXe siècle, sont influencées par la PGF et l'intensité capitalistique mais aussi par les écarts de taux d'emploi et de durée moyenne du travail. Un fort contraste apparait depuis le milieu des années 1970 concernant la contribution du facteur travail entre les pays anglo-saxons, dont principalement les États-Unis, et les autres, en particulier européens. Du milieu des années 1970 jusqu'au milieu des années 1990, cette contribution diminue dans les seconds vis-à-vis des États-Unis, ce qui contribue à abaisser le niveau relatif de PIB par habitant. Cette évolution s'inverse en partie dès le milieu des années 1990, en particulier du fait de l'augmentation du taux d'emploi des seniors. Sur l'ensemble de la période, le PIB par habitant augmente en France dans les mêmes proportions que dans la zone euro reconstituée. Mais la position française se dégrade relativement à la zone euro du milieu des années 1970 au milieu des années 1990 en raison d'une baisse relative du taux d'emploi. Depuis le milieu des années 1990, la stabilité de la situation française par rapport à l'ensemble de la zone euro résulte d'une baisse relative du PIB par habitant de l'Italie qui compense une hausse relative de celui de l'Allemagne. Les écarts avec l'Allemagne résultent largement des dynamiques différentes des taux d'emploi.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2015. "Le produit intérieur brut par habitant sur longue période en France et dans les pays avancés : le rôle de la productivité et de l'emploi," Post-Print hal-01457333, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01457333
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-amu.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01457333
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philippe Aghion & Diego Comin & Peter Howitt & Isabel Tecu, 2016. "When Does Domestic Savings Matter for Economic Growth?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 381-407, August.
    2. Cette, G., 2014. "Does ICT remain a powerful engine of growth?," Working papers 476, Banque de France.
    3. Renaud Bourlès & Gilbert Cette, 2006. "A comparison of structural productivity levels in the major industrialised countries," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2005(2), pages 75-108.
    4. Alberto F. Alesina & Edward L. Glaeser & Bruce Sacerdote, 2006. "Work and Leisure in the U.S. and Europe: Why So Different?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 1-100 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2006. "Joseph Schumpeter Lecture Appropriate Growth Policy: A Unifying Framework," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 269-314, 04-05.
    6. Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke & Nicholas Crafts, 2013. "Twentieth Century Growth," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _117, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. David Card & Richard B. Freeman, 2004. "What Have Two Decades of British Economic Reform Delivered?," NBER Chapters,in: Seeking a Premier Economy: The Economic Effects of British Economic Reforms, 1980-2000, pages 9-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    9. Bourles, Renaud & Cette, Gilbert, 2007. "Trends in "structural" productivity levels in the major industrialized countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 151-156, April.
    10. Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "Why do Americans work so much more than Europeans?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Jul, pages 2-13.
    11. Maddison, Angus, 1994. "Standardised Estimates of Fixed Capital Stock: A Six Country Comparison," GGDC Research Memorandum 199409, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    12. Marc Fleurbaey & Guillaume Gaulier, 2009. "International Comparisons of Living Standards by Equivalent Incomes," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(3), pages 597-624, September.
    13. Rogerson, Richard & Wallenius, Johanna, 2009. "Micro and macro elasticities in a life cycle model with taxes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(6), pages 2277-2292, November.
    14. Robert J. Gordon, 2012. "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds," NBER Working Papers 18315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Gilbert Cette, 2014. "Presidential Conference Does ICT remain a powerful engine of growth?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 124(4), pages 473-492.
    16. Broadberry, S N, 1997. "The Long Run Growth and Productivity Performance of the United Kingdom," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 403-424, September.
    17. Renaud Bourlès & Gilbert Cette, 2006. "A comparison of structural productivity levels in the major industrialised countries," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2005(2), pages 75-108.
    18. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "The Economic Future of Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 3-26, Fall.
    19. repec:dgr:rugggd:199625 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Groote, Peter & Albers, Ronald & Jong, Herman de, 1996. "A standardised time series of the stock of fixed capital in the Netherlands, 1900-1995," GGDC Research Memorandum 199625, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    21. Gilbert Cette & Anne Epaulard & Pauline Givord, 2008. "Croissance de la productivité : le rôle des institutions et de la politique économique," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 419(1), pages 3-10.
    22. McLean, Ian W., 2007. "Why was Australia so rich?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 635-656, October.
    23. Broadberry, Stephen N. & Irwin, Douglas A., 2006. "Labor productivity in the United States and the United Kingdom during the nineteenth century," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 257-279, April.
    24. Madsen, Jakob B., 2010. "The anatomy of growth in the OECD since 1870," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 753-767, September.
    25. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012634.
    26. -, 2009. "Economic growth in the Caribbean," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38668, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    27. Philippe Aghion & Gilbert Cette & Elie Cohen, 2014. "Changer de modèle," Post-Print hal-01463101, HAL.
    28. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, July.
    29. repec:dgr:rugggd:199409 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. David Card & Richard B. Freeman, 2002. "What Have Two Decades of British Economic Reform Delivered in Terms of Productivity Growth?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 5, pages 41-52, Fall.
    31. Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "Why Do Americans Work So Much More Than Europeans?," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000413, UCLA Department of Economics.
    32. Howitt, Peter & Aghion, Philippe, 2006. "Appropriate Growth Policy: A Unifying Framework," Scholarly Articles 4554121, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    33. Gilbert Cette & Jimmy Lopez, 2012. "ICT demand behaviour: an international comparison," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 397-410, June.
    34. Madsen, Jakob B., 2010. "Growth and capital deepening since 1870: Is it all technological progress?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 641-656, June.
    35. repec:oxf:wpaper:117.2 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Robert J. Gordon, 1999. "U.S. Economic Growth since 1870: One Big Wave?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 123-128, May.
    37. Roger W. Ferguson & William L. Wascher, 2004. "Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: Lessons from Past Productivity Booms," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 3-28, Spring.
    38. Robert J. Gordon, 2013. "U.S. Productivity Growth: The Slowdown Has Returned After a Temporary Revival," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 13-19, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:nse:ecosta:ecostat_2017_491-492_6 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bergeaud, A. & Cette, G. & Lecat, R., 2015. "Gross domestic product per capita in France and in advanced economies : the role of productivity and employment," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 11, October..

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economie quantitative;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01457333. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.