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Le produit intérieur brut par habitant sur longue période en France et dans les pays avancés : le rôle de la productivité et de l'emploi

Author

Listed:
  • Antonin Bergeaud

    (LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Gilbert Cette

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France, GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Rémy Lecat

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

Abstract

Sur la période 1890-2012, le produit intérieur brut par habitant a connu une très forte progression dans les pays avancés, principalement grâce à l'augmentation de la productivité globale des facteurs (PGF) et de l'intensité capitalistique. Cette progression, correspondant par exemple en France à un PIB neuf fois plus élevé en fin de période, n'a pas été régulière : elle connait de fortes fluctuations liées à des chocs globaux dont les effets ne sont pas nécessairement identiques d'un pays à l'autre. Les hiérarchies de PIB par habitant entre pays, qui placent les États-Unis au premier rang pendant la plus grande partie du XXe siècle, sont influencées par la PGF et l'intensité capitalistique mais aussi par les écarts de taux d'emploi et de durée moyenne du travail. Un fort contraste apparait depuis le milieu des années 1970 concernant la contribution du facteur travail entre les pays anglo-saxons, dont principalement les États-Unis, et les autres, en particulier européens. Du milieu des années 1970 jusqu'au milieu des années 1990, cette contribution diminue dans les seconds vis-à-vis des États-Unis, ce qui contribue à abaisser le niveau relatif de PIB par habitant. Cette évolution s'inverse en partie dès le milieu des années 1990, en particulier du fait de l'augmentation du taux d'emploi des seniors. Sur l'ensemble de la période, le PIB par habitant augmente en France dans les mêmes proportions que dans la zone euro reconstituée. Mais la position française se dégrade relativement à la zone euro du milieu des années 1970 au milieu des années 1990 en raison d'une baisse relative du taux d'emploi. Depuis le milieu des années 1990, la stabilité de la situation française par rapport à l'ensemble de la zone euro résulte d'une baisse relative du PIB par habitant de l'Italie qui compense une hausse relative de celui de l'Allemagne. Les écarts avec l'Allemagne résultent largement des dynamiques différentes des taux d'emploi.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2015. "Le produit intérieur brut par habitant sur longue période en France et dans les pays avancés : le rôle de la productivité et de l'emploi," Post-Print hal-01457333, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01457333
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.2014.10508
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    2. Hippolyte d’Albis & Carole Bonnet & Julien Navaux & Jacques Pelletan & François-Charles Wolff, 2017. "Lifecycle deficit in France: an assessment for the period 1979-2011," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 491-492, pages 47-70.
    3. Bergeaud, A. & Cette, G. & Lecat, R., 2015. "Gross domestic product per capita in France and in advanced economies : the role of productivity and employment," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 11, October..

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