IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Medium and Long Run Prospects for UK Growth in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis

  • Nicholas Oulton

The productivity performance of the UK economy in the period 1990-2007 was excellent. Based entirely on pre-crisis data, and using a two-sector growth model, I project the future growth rate of GDP per hour in the market sector to be 2.61% p.a. But the financial crisis and the Great Recession which began in Spring 2008 have dealt this optimistic picture a devastating blow. Both GDP and GDP per hour have fallen and are still below the level reached at the peak of the boom. So I discuss a wide range of hypotheses which seek to explain the productivity collapse, including the impact of austerity. Most of the conclusions here are negative: the explanation in question doesn't work. I next turn to the long run impact of financial crises, particularly banking crises, on productivity, capital, TFP and employment. Based on a cross-country panel analysis of 61 countries over 1950-2010, I argue that banking crises generally have a long run impact on the level of productivity but not necessarily on its long run growth rate. I therefore predict that the UK will eventually return to the growth rate predicted prior to the crisis. This prediction is conditional on the UK continuing to follow good policies in other respects, in particular not allowing the government debt-GDP ratio to rise excessively. Nonetheless the permanent reduction in the level of GDP per worker resulting from the crisis could be substantial, about 5½%. The cross-country evidence also suggests that there are permanent effects on employment, implying a possibly even larger hit to the level of GDP per capita of about 9%.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/occasional/op037.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Occasional Papers with number 37.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cep:cepops:37
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/series.asp?prog=CEPOP

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Nicholas Bloom & Raffaella Sadun & John Van Reenen, 2012. "Americans Do IT Better: US Multinationals and the Productivity Miracle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 167-201, February.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
  3. Faccini, Renato & Hackworth, Christopher, 2010. "Changes in output, employment and wages during recessions in the United Kingdom," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(1), pages 43-50.
  4. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
  5. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 183-249.
  6. Venetia Bell & Pablo Burriel-Llombart & Jerry Jones, 2005. "A quality-adjusted labour input series for the United Kingdom (1975-2002)," Bank of England working papers 280, Bank of England.
  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2012. "Debt Overhangs: Past and Present," NBER Working Papers 18015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Disney, Richard F & Haskel, Jonathan & Heden, Ylva, 2000. "Restructuring And Productivity Growth In UK Manufacturing," CEPR Discussion Papers 2463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Oulton, Nicholas, 2007. "Investment-specific technological change and growth accounting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1290-1299, May.
  10. Oulton, Nicholas, 2012. "Long term implications of the ICT revolution: Applying the lessons of growth theory and growth accounting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1722-1736.
  11. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995. "Transfers, social safety nets and economic growth," Economics Working Papers 139, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  12. Broadberry, S. N. & Crafts, N. F. R., 1992. "Britain's Productivity Gap in the 1930s: Some Neglected Factors," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(03), pages 531-558, September.
  13. Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2013. "Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogo ff," Working Papers wp322, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  14. Dan Ben-David & Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1998. "Unit Roots, Postwar Slowdowns and Long-Run Growth: Evidence from Two Structural Breaks," NBER Working Papers 6397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Peter Goodridge & Jonathan Haskel & Gavin Wallis, 2013. "Can Intangible Investment Explain the UK Productivity Puzzle?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 224(1), pages R48-R58, May.
  16. Nicholas Oulton, 2013. "Has the Growth of Real GDP in the UK Been Overstated Because of Mismeasurement of Banking Output?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 224(1), pages R59-R65, May.
  17. Whelan, Karl, 2003. " A Two-Sector Approach to Modeling U.S. NIPA Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 627-56, August.
  18. Bart van Ark & Mary O'Mahoney & Marcel P. Timmer, 2008. "The Productivity Gap between Europe and the United States: Trends and Causes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 25-44, Winter.
  19. Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2003. "Computing Productivity: Firm-Level Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 793-808, November.
  20. Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 2011. "How Big (Small?) Are Fiscal Multipliers?," IMF Working Papers 11/52, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Data Appendix to The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade," Technical Appendices hayashi02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  22. Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Gary Hansen, 2013. "Fiscal Reform and Government Debt in Japan: A Neoclassical Perspective," 2013 Meeting Papers 697, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  23. Mauro Giorgio Marrano & Jonathan Haskel & Gavin Wallis, 2009. "What Happened To The Knowledge Economy? Ict, Intangible Investment, And Britain'S Productivity Record Revisited," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(3), pages 686-716, 09.
  24. Leslie Hannah & Peter Temin, 2010. "Long-term supply-side implications of the Great Depression," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 561-580, Autumn.
  25. Robert J. Barro, 2012. "Inflation and Economic Growth," CEMA Working Papers 568, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  26. Oulton, Nicholas & Sebastia-Barriel, Maria, 2013. "Long and short-term effects of the financial crisis on labour productivity, capital and output," Bank of England working papers 470, Bank of England.
  27. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2005. "Growth Dynamics; The Myth of Economic Recovery," IMF Working Papers 05/147, International Monetary Fund.
  28. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  29. Nicholas Crafts, 2003. "Steam as a general purpose technology: a growth accounting perspective," Economic History Working Papers 22354, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
  30. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2000. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Working Papers 607, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  31. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 2008. "Information and communications technology as a general purpose technology: evidence from U.S. industry data," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15.
  32. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane, 2009. "The Effect of Financial Crises on Potential Output: New Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 699, OECD Publishing.
  34. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-78, May.
  36. James Cloyne, 2013. "Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1507-28, June.
  37. Barnes, Sebastian & Price, Simon & Sebastia Barriel, Maria, 2008. "The elasticity of substitution: evidence from a UK firm-level data set," Bank of England working papers 348, Bank of England.
  38. Crafts, Nicholas; Fearon, Peter, 2010. "Lessons from the 1930s' Great Depression," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 23, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  39. Barro, Robert J., 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Scholarly Articles 3451400, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  40. Cette, Gilbert & Mairesse, Jacques & Kocoglu, Yusuf, 2005. "ICT diffusion and potential output growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 231-234, May.
  41. Gilbert Cette & Jimmy Lopez, 2008. "What Explains the ICT Diffusion Gap Between the Major Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Analysis?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 17, pages 28-39, Fall.
  42. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "When is the government spending multiplier large?," NBER Working Papers 15394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 233-297.
  44. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C, 2013. "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy: Was There a 'Free Lunch' in 1930s' Britain?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9273, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  45. Corder, Matthew & Weale, Martin, 2011. "Banking crises and recessions: what can leading indicators tell us?," Discussion Papers 33, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  46. Joao Paulo Pessoa & John Van Reenen, 2013. "The UK Productivity and Jobs Puzzle: Does the Answer Lie in Labour Market Flexibility?," CEP Special Papers 31, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  47. Burgess, Stephen, 2011. "Measuring financial sector output and its contribution to UK GDP," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(3), pages 234-246.
  48. Mirko Draca & Raffaella Sadun & John Van Reenen, 2006. "Productivity and ICT: a review of the evidence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 4561, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  49. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973, April.
  50. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "The time for austerity: estimating the average treatment effect of fiscal policy," Working Paper Series 2013-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  51. Oecd, 2013. "What Are the Social Benefits of Education?," Education Indicators in Focus 10, OECD Publishing.
  52. Alberto F. Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2009. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes Versus Spending," NBER Working Papers 15438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  53. Mary O'Mahony & Marcel P. Timmer, 2009. "Output, Input and Productivity Measures at the Industry Level: The EU KLEMS Database," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(538), pages F374-F403, 06.
  54. repec:sae:niesru:v:154:y::i:1:p:53-70 is not listed on IDEAS
  55. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  56. repec:sae:niesru:v:161:y::i:1:p:69-83 is not listed on IDEAS
  57. Nicholas Crafts, 2013. "Long-Term Growth in Europe: What Difference does the Crisis Make?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 224(1), pages R14-R28, May.
  58. Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2009. "Intangible Capital And U.S. Economic Growth," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(3), pages 661-685, 09.
  59. Hughes, Abigail & Saleheen, Jumana, 2012. "UK labour productivity since the onset of the crisis — an international and historical perspective," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(2), pages 138-146.
  60. -, 2013. "Employers and higher education system," Educational Studies, Higher School of Economics, issue 1, pages 174-182.
  61. William Brown & Simon Deakin & Paul Ryan, 1997. "The Effects of British Industrial Relations Legislation 1979-97," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 161(1), pages 69-83, July.
  62. Bakhshi, Hasan & Larsen, Jens, 2005. "ICT-specific technological progress in the United Kingdom," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 648-669, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:cepops:37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.