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Banking crises and recessions: what can leading indicators tell us?

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew Corder

    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

  • Martin Weale

    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

Abstract

It is widely suggested that there is some relationship between banking crises and recessions. We assess whether there is evidence for interdependency between recessions and banking crises using both non-parametric tests and unconditional bivariate probit models and find strong evidence for interdependence. We then consider whether leading indicators can help predict banking crises and recessions and if these variables can explain the previously obvserved interdependence. Inclusion of exogenous variables means that the observed interdependence between banking crises and recessions disappears - indicating that the observed interdependence is a result of easily observable common causes rather than unobserved links.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Corder & Martin Weale, 2011. "Banking crises and recessions: what can leading indicators tell us?," Discussion Papers 33, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:0033
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas Oulton & María Sebastiá-Barriel, 2013. "Long and Short-Term Effects of the Financial Crisis on Labour Productivity, Capital and Output," CEP Discussion Papers dp1185, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Ihejirika, Peters. O, 2020. "Does the Credit-to-GDP Gap Predict Financial Crisis in Nigeria?," International Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(2), pages 109-126, June.
    3. Nicholas Oulton, 2013. "Medium and Long Run Prospects for UK Growth in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis," CEP Occasional Papers 37, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Kevin J. Fox & Nicholas Oulton & María Sebastiá-Barriel, 2017. "Effects of Financial Crises on Productivity, Capital and Employment," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63, pages 90-112, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crises; recessions; interdependency; bivariate probit analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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