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Banking crises and recessions: what can leading indicators tell us?

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Listed author(s):
  • Corder, Matthew

    ()

    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

  • Weale, Martin

    ()

    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

Abstract

It is widely suggested that there is some relationship between banking crises and recessions. We assess whether there is evidence for interdependency between recessions and banking crises using both non-parametric tests and unconditional bivariate probit models and find strong evidence for interdependence. We then consider whether leading indicators can help predict banking crises and recessions and if these variables can explain the previously obvserved interdependence. Inclusion of exogenous variables means that the observed interdependence between banking crises and recessions disappears - indicating that the observed interdependence is a result of easily observable common causes rather than unobserved links.

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Paper provided by Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England in its series Discussion Papers with number 33.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2011
Handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:0033
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Keywords: Crises; recessions; interdependency; bivariate probit analysis;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
  • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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  1. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
  2. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring.
  3. Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis, 2010. "Was the subprime crisis unique? An analysis of the factors that help predict banking crises in OECD countries," NIESR Discussion Papers 363, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  4. Ray Barrell & E Philip Davis & Tatiana Fic & Dawn Holland & Simon Kirby & Iana Liadze, 2009. "Optimal Regulation of Bank Capital and Liquidity: How to Calibrate New International Standards," Occasional Papers 38, Financial Services Authority.
  5. Cipollini, A. & Kapetanios, G., 2009. "Forecasting financial crises and contagion in Asia using dynamic factor analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 188-200, March.
  6. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Renault, Eric & Trognon, Alain, 1987. "Generalised residuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 5-32.
  7. John H. Boyd & Pedro Gomis-Porqueras & Sungkyu Kwak & Bruce David Smith, 2014. "A User's Guide to Banking Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 800-892, November.
  8. Elisabetta Falcetti & Merxe Tudela, 2008. "What do Twins Share? A Joint Probit Estimation of Banking and Currency Crises," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(298), pages 199-221, 05.
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Cited by:

  1. Nicholas Oulton & María Sebastiá-Barriel, 2013. "Long and Short-Term Effects of the Financial Crisis on Labour Productivity, Capital and Output," CEP Discussion Papers dp1185, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  2. Nicholas Oulton, 2013. "Medium and long run prospects for UK growth in the aftermathof the financial crisis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58239, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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