IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Long-Term Growth in Europe: What Difference does the Crisis Make?

  • Nicholas Crafts

    (Warwick University.)

OECD projections for European countries imply that the crisis will have no long-term effect on trend growth. An historical perspective says this is too optimistic. Not only is the legacy of public debt and its requirement for fiscal consolidation unfavourable but the experience of the 1930s suggests that much needed supply-side reforms are now less probable – indeed policy may well become less growth friendly. Whereas the 1940s saw the Bretton Woods agreement and the Marshall Plan pave the way for the ‘Golden Age’, it is unlikely that anything similar will rescue Europe this time around.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://ner.sagepub.com/content/224/1/R14.abstract
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by National Institute of Economic and Social Research in its journal National Institute Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 224 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Pages: R14-R28

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:224:y:2013:i:1:p:r14-r28
Contact details of provider: Postal:
2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square, London SW1P 3HE

Phone: +44 (020) 7222 7665
Fax: +44 (020) 7654 1900
Web page: http://www.niesr.ac.uk/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Eichengreen, Barry & Uzan, Marc, 1992. "The Marshall Plan: Economic Effects and Implications for Eastern Europe and the Former USSR," CEPR Discussion Papers 638, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Bogdan Lissovolik & Julio Escolano & Stefania Fabrizio & Werner Schule & Herman Z. Bennett & Stephen Tokarick & Yuan Xiao & Marialuz Moreno Badia & Eva Gutierrez & Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2008. "Competitiveness in the Southern Euro Area: France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain," IMF Working Papers 08/112, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2011. "Supply-Side Policies and the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 8642, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. André Sapir, 2005. "Globalisation and the reform of European social models," Policy Contributions 31, Bruegel.
  5. Hans-Joachim Voth, 2003. "Convertibility, currency controls and the cost of capital in Western Europe, 1950-1999," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 255-276.
  6. Richard E. Baldwin & Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2007. "Entry and Asymmetric Lobbying: Why Governments Pick Losers," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(5), pages 1064-1093, 09.
  7. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Robert P. Hagemann, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 6. What Are the Best Policy Instruments for Fiscal Consolidation?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 937, OECD Publishing.
  9. Alesina, Alberto F & Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2012. "The output effect of fiscal consolidations," CEPR Discussion Papers 9105, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Barry Eichengreen, 2011. "Crisis and Growth in the Advanced Economies: What We Know, What We Do not, and What We Can Learn from the 1930s," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 383-406, September.
  11. Reinhart, C. M., 2012. "The return of financial repression," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 37-48, April.
  12. Carmen Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia, 2015. "The Liquidation of Government Debt," IMF Working Papers 15/7, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
  14. Hanushek, Eric A. & Wößmann, Ludger, 2012. "Do better schools lead to more growth? Cognitive skills, economic outcomes, and causation," Munich Reprints in Economics 20400, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  16. Holger Breinlich & Alessandra Tucci, 2011. "Foreign market conditions and export performance: does `crowdedness' reduce exports?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 44(3), pages 991-1019, August.
  17. Marcheggiano, Gilberto & Miles, David K & Yang, Jing, 2011. "Optimal Bank Capital," CEPR Discussion Papers 8333, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Charles W. Calomiris, 2010. "The political lessons of Depression-era banking reform," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 540-560, Autumn.
  19. de Bromhead, Alan & Eichengreen, Barry & O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj, 2012. "Right Wing Political Extremism in the Great Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 8876, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 2009. "The Slide to Protectionism in the Great Depression: Who Succumbed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 15142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. David S. Jacks & Christopher M. Meissner & Dennis Novy, 2009. "Trade Booms, Trade Busts, and Trade Costs," NBER Working Papers 15267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Dani Rodrik, 2000. "How Far Will International Economic Integration Go?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 177-186, Winter.
  23. Alessandro Missale & emanuele bacchiocchi & elisa borghi, 2009. "Public investment under fiscal constraints," UNIMI - Research Papers in Economics, Business, and Statistics unimi-1093, Universitá degli Studi di Milano.
  24. Hoekman, Bernard & Martin, Will & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2010. "Conclude Doha: it matters!," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 505-530, July.
  25. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June.
  26. Philippe Aghion & Mathias Dewatripont & Luosha Du & Ann Harrison & Patrick Legros, 2012. "Industrial Policy and Competition," NBER Working Papers 18048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Rachel Griffith & Rupert Harrison & Helen Simpson, 2006. "Product market reform and innovation in the EU," IFS Working Papers W06/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  28. Ian Dew-Becker & Robert J. Gordon, 2012. "The Role of Labor-Market Changes in the Slowdown of European Productivity," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 3(2).
  29. Ray Barrell & Sylvia Gottschalk & Dawn Holland & Ehsan Khoman & Iana Liadze & Olga Pomerantz, 2008. "The impact of EMU on growth and employment," European Economy - Economic Papers 318, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  30. Evenett Simon J, 2009. "What Can Be Learned From Crisis-Era Protectionism? An Initial Assessment," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 1-28, November.
  31. Price V. Fishback & John Joseph Wallis, 2012. "What Was New About the New Deal?," NBER Working Papers 18271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2010. "Public Debt and Growth," IMF Working Papers 10/174, International Monetary Fund.
  33. David Rae & Marte Sollie, 2007. "Globalisation and the European Union: Which Countries are Best Placed to Cope?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 586, OECD Publishing.
  34. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Systemic Banking Crises Database: An Update," IMF Working Papers 12/163, International Monetary Fund.
  35. Foreman-Peck, James, 2006. "Industrial policy in Europe in the 20th century," EIB Papers 2/2006, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
  36. Fogel, Kathy & Morck, Randall & Yeung, Bernard, 2008. "Big business stability and economic growth: Is what's good for General Motors good for America?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 83-108, July.
  37. Kneller, Richard & Bleaney, Michael F. & Gemmell, Norman, 1999. "Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 171-190, November.
  38. Aaron Mehrotra & Timo Välilä, 2006. "Public Investment in Europe: Evolution and Determinants in perspective," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 27(4), pages 443-471, December.
  39. Guglielmo Barone & Federico Cingano, 2008. "Service regulation and growth: evidence from OECD countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 675, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  40. Franklin Allen & Elena Carletti & Agnese Leonello, 2011. "Deposit insurance and risk taking," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 464-478.
  41. Dan Ben-David & Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 2003. "Unit roots, postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: Evidence from two structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 303-319, 04.
  42. Robert Millward, 2011. "Public Enterprise In The Modern Western World: An Historical Analysis," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 82(4), pages 375-398, December.
  43. Harald Badinger & Niklas Maydell, 2009. "Legal and Economic Issues in Completing the EU Internal Market for Services: An Interdisciplinary Perspective," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47, pages 693-717, 09.
  44. Richard Baldwin & Virginia DiNino & Lionel Fontagn� & Roberto A. De Santis & Daria Taglioni, 2008. "Study on the Impact of the Euro on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment," European Economy - Economic Papers 321, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  45. Nicholas Crafts, 2003. "Steam as a general purpose technology: a growth accounting perspective," Economic History Working Papers 22354, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
  46. Crafts, Nicholas, 2011. "The Marshall Plan: A Reality Check," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 49, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  47. Bernanke, Ben S, 1995. "The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 1-28, February.
  48. Lindert,Peter H., 2004. "Growing Public," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521529167, 1.
  49. Margit Molnar, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 5. What Factors Determine the Success of Consolidation Efforts?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 936, OECD Publishing.
  50. S M Ali Abbas & Nazim Belhocine & Asmaa El-Ganainy & Mark Horton, 2011. "Historical Patterns and Dynamics of Public Debt—Evidence From a New Database," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 59(4), pages 717-742, November.
  51. Ludger Wöbmann & Elke Lüdemann & Gabriela Schütz & Martin R. West, 2007. "School Accountability, Autonomy, Choice, and the Level of Student Achievement: International Evidence from PISA 2003," OECD Education Working Papers 13, OECD Publishing.
  52. Sebastian Barnes & Romain Bouis & Philippe Briard & Sean Dougherty & Mehmet Eris, 2013. "The GDP Impact of Reform: A Simple Simulation Framework," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 834, OECD Publishing.
  53. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro & Rosés, Joan R. & Sanz-Villarroya, Isabel, 2012. "Economic reforms and growth in Franco's Spain," Revista de Historia Económica, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 45-89, March.
  54. Dennis P. Quinn & A. Maria Toyoda, 2008. "Does Capital Account Liberalization Lead to�Growth?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1403-1449, May.
  55. Kamps, Christophe, 2005. "Is there a lack of public capital in the European Union?," EIB Papers 3/2005, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
  56. Romain Duval, 2003. "Retirement Behaviour in OECD Countries: Impact of Old-Age Pension Schemes and other Social Transfer Programmes," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2003(2), pages 7-50.
  57. Crafts, Nicholas & Toniolo, Gianni, 2008. "European Economic Growth, 1950-2005: An Overview," CEPR Discussion Papers 6863, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  58. Douglas A. Irwin, 2010. "Did France Cause the Great Depression?," NBER Working Papers 16350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  59. Eichengreen, Barry & Portes, Richard, 1990. "The Interwar Debt Crisis and Its Aftermath," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 5(1), pages 69-94, January.
  60. Daniel Leigh & Andrea Pescatori & Jaime Guajardo, 2011. "Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 11/158, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:224:y:2013:i:1:p:r14-r28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SAGE Publications)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.