IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Discretionary fiscal policy and economic activity in Greece

  • Athanasios O. Tagkalakis

    ()

    (Bank of Greece)

This paper investigates the effects of discretionary fiscal policy changes on economic activity and its subcomponents in Greece in the period 2000-2011. Changes in government spending and net taxes have Keynesian effects. An increase in government consumption has the most pronounced positive effects on output growth, private consumption and non-residential investment, while it reduces residential investment. Cuts in the public investment programme crowd in private investment, but are associated negatively with the net exports ratio. Both indirect and direct tax hikes lower private consumption, private investment and output growth. Additionally, higher direct taxes, by lowering disposable income, reduce import demand, thus, improving the trade balance.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bankofgreece.gr/BogEkdoseis/Paper2013169.pdf
File Function: Full Text
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Bank of Greece in its series Working Papers with number 169.

as
in new window

Length: 69
Date of creation: Dec 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:169
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bankofgreece.gr

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Mountford, A.W. & Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," Discussion Paper 2002-31, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Robert J. Barro, 1988. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "How Does Fiscal Policy React to Wealth Composition and Asset Prices?," NIPE Working Papers 24/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 117-20, May.
  5. Agnello, Luca & Furceri, Davide & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "How best to measure discretionary fiscal policy? Assessing its impact on private spending," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-24.
  6. Jordi Gali & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," NBER Working Papers 9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Christopher Heady & Åsa Johansson & Jens Arnold & Bert Brys & Laura Vartia, 2009. "Tax Policy for Economic Recovery and Growth," Studies in Economics 0925, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  8. Ruud de Mooij & Michael Keen, 2012. "'Fiscal Devaluation' and Fiscal Consolidation: The VAT in Troubled Times," NBER Working Papers 17913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Michael Bleaney & Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller, 2001. "Testing the endogenous growth model: public expenditure, taxation, and growth over the long run," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 36-57, February.
  10. Raffaela Giordano & Sandro Momigliano & Stefano Neri & Roberto Perotti, 2008. "The effetcs of fiscal policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 656, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  11. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Asea, Patrick, 1997. "On the ineffectiveness of tax policy in altering long-run growth: Harberger's superneutrality conjecture," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 99-126, October.
  12. Grant, Charles & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2008. "Housing and equity wealth effects of Italian households," Working Paper Series 0857, European Central Bank.
  13. anonymous, 2000. "Western economic developments," Western economic developments, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  14. Carroll, Christopher D. & Otsuka, Misuzu & Slacalek, Jiri, 2010. "How large are housing and financial wealth effects? A new approach," Working Paper Series 1283, European Central Bank.
  15. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
  16. Elie Girard & Olivier Biau, 2005. "Politique budgétaire et dynamique économique en France : l'approche VAR structurel," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 169(3), pages 1-23.
  17. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal rules in the US states," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-2), pages 101-117, January.
  18. Peek, Joe, 1983. "Capital Gains and Personal Saving Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23, February.
  19. Lockwood, Ben & Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Tzavalis, Elias, 2001. "Fiscal policy and politics: theory and evidence from Greece 1960-1997," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 253-268, April.
  20. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. anonymous, 2000. "Western economic developments," Western economic developments, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
  22. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78 - 121.
  23. repec:inr:wpaper:62195 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. anonymous, 2000. "Reviewing economic development needs," Banking and Community Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue 2, pages 6-7.
  25. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
  26. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2007. "The growth effects of fiscal policy in Greece 1960–2000," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 157-175, April.
  27. Christopher D. Carroll & Miles S. Kimball, 1995. "On the Concavity of the Consumption Function," Macroeconomics 9503003, EconWPA.
  28. Sophocles Brissimis & George Hondroyiannis & Christos Papazoglou & Nicholas Tsaveas & Melina Vasardani, 2012. "Current account determinants and external sustainability in periods of structural change," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 71-95, February.
  29. ., 2000. "Inflation and economic performance," Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Instability and Coordination, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  30. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2008. "The effects of fiscal policy on consumption in recessions and expansions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(5-6), pages 1486-1508, June.
  31. Margarita Katsimi & Vassilis Sarantides, 2012. "The Impact Of Fiscal Policy On Profits," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(4), pages 1050-1068, October.
  32. Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1986. "The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(2), pages 249-73, March.
  33. Sala-I-Martin, X. & Barro, R.J., 1991. "Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth," Papers 640, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  34. ., 2000. "Ideology and analysis in macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Instability and Coordination, chapter 18 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  35. António Afonso & Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri, 2008. "Fiscal Policy Responsiveness, Persistence, and Discretion," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 659, OECD Publishing.
  36. Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller & Ismael Sanz, 2011. "The Timing and Persistence of Fiscal Policy Impacts on Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(550), pages F33-F58, February.
  37. Jörn Tenhofen & Guntram B. Wolff & Kirsten H. Heppke-Falk, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Fiscal Policy Shocks in Germany: A Disaggregated SVAR Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 230(3), pages 328-355, June.
  38. Lane, Philip R. & Perotti, Roberto, 1998. "The trade balance and fiscal policy in the OECD," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 887-895, May.
  39. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-78, May.
  40. Philip R. Lane & Roberto Perotti, 2001. "The Importance of Composition of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Different Exchange Rate Regimes," Trinity Economics Papers 200116, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  41. Karel Mertens & Morten Overgaard Ravn, 2010. "Online Appendix to "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks"," Technical Appendices 09-221, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  42. anonymous, 2000. "Western economic developments," Western economic developments, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  43. Sebastian Weber & Anna Ivanova, 2011. "Do Fiscal Spillovers Matter?," IMF Working Papers 11/211, International Monetary Fund.
  44. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  45. Panagiotis Konstantinou & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2010. "Boosting confidence: is there a role for fiscal policy?," Working Papers 113, Bank of Greece.
  46. Balazs Egert & Tomasz Kozluk & Douglas Sutherland, 2009. "Infrastructure and Growth: Empirical Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 2700, CESifo Group Munich.
  47. anonymous, 2000. "Twelfth District economic update," Western economic developments, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Dec, pages 5.
  48. Jordi GalÌ & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October.
  49. Morten O. Ravn & Karel Mertens, 2009. "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy shocks," 2009 Meeting Papers 480, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  50. Morten O. Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2007. "Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 13328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436.
  52. Robert Dixon & John Freebairn & G.C. Lim, 2005. "An Employment Equation for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(254), pages 204-214, 09.
  53. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2013. "Do fiscal rules matter for growth?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 34-40, January.
  54. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2011. "How Costly Are Debt Crises?," IMF Working Papers 11/280, International Monetary Fund.
  55. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2011. "The Effects of Government Purchases Shocks: Review and Estimates for the EU," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(550), pages F4-F32, February.
  56. anonymous, 2000. "Strengthening the emerging market economies," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 44(Jun), pages 228-231.
  57. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas Fisher, 2003. "Fiscal Shocks and Their Consequences," NBER Working Papers 9772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  58. Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 1998. "Understanding the effects of a shock to government purchases," Working Paper Series WP-98-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  59. Eric M. Leeper & Alexander W. Richter & Todd B. Walker, 2012. "Quantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 115-44, May.
  60. anonymous, 2000. "Western economic developments," Western economic developments, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Aug.
  61. anonymous, 2000. "Western economic developments," Western economic developments, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  62. Soyoung Kim & Nouriel Roubini, 2004. "Twin Deficit or Twin Divergence? Fiscal Policy, Current Account, and Real Exchange Rate in the US," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 271, Econometric Society.
  63. Ardagna, Silvia & Alesina, Alberto, 1998. "Tales of Fiscal Adjustment," Scholarly Articles 2579822, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  64. Eric M. Leeper & Alexander W. Richter & Todd B. Walker, 2012. "Corrigendum: Quantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 283-283, August.
  65. Anonymous, 2000. "Microeconomic Reform and the Environment," Conference/Workshop Proceedings 31908, Productivity Commission.
  66. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2012. "Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 145-81, May.
  67. anonymous, 2000. "Western economic developments," Western economic developments, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue May.
  68. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
  69. Hansjörg Blöchliger & Dae-Ho Song & Douglas Sutherland, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 4. Case Studies of Large Fiscal Consolidation Episodes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 935, OECD Publishing.
  70. Giancarlo Corsetti & Gernot J. Müller, 2008. "Twin Deficits, Openness, and the Business Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 404-413, 04-05.
  71. Agustin S. Benetrix & Philip R. Lane, 2009. "Fiscal Shocks and The Sectoral Composition of Output," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp294, IIIS.
  72. Tommaso Monacelli & Roberto Perotti, 2008. "Openness and the Sectoral Effects of Fiscal Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 395-403, 04-05.
  73. Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1998. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Research Paper 9821, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  74. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Rossana Merola, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 1. How Much is Needed and How to Reduce Debt to a Prudent Level?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 932, OECD Publishing.
  75. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  76. Valerie A. Ramey, 2009. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing," NBER Working Papers 15464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  77. anonymous, 2000. "Western economic developments," Western economic developments, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
  78. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 1998. "Tales of fiscal adjustment," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 487-545, October.
  79. Schiantarelli, Fabio & Perotti, Roberto & Ardagna, Silvia & Alesina, Alberto, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," Scholarly Articles 4685103, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  80. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2010. "Fiscal policy and financial market movements," Working Papers 116, Bank of Greece.
  81. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2011. "What Fiscal Policy is Effective at Zero Interest Rates?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, Volume 25, pages 59-112 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  82. Anonymous, 2000. "Agricultural Economics Volumes 1-22, 1986-2000," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 23(2), August.
  83. Belke, Ansgar, 2009. "Fiscal Stimulus Packages and Uncertainty in Times of Crisis – The Option of Waiting Can Be Valuable, Though!," Ruhr Economic Papers 88, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI), Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  84. Olivier Biau & Élie Girard, 2005. "Politique budgétaire et dynamique économique en France. L'approche var structurel," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(3), pages 755-764.
  85. Margit Molnar, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 5. What Factors Determine the Success of Consolidation Efforts?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 936, OECD Publishing.
  86. Chamley, Christophe, 1986. "Optimal Taxation of Capital Income in General Equilibrium with Infinite Lives," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 607-22, May.
  87. Kneller, Richard & Bleaney, Michael F. & Gemmell, Norman, 1999. "Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 171-190, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:169. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christina Tsochatzi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.