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Quantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight

In: Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar (TAPES), Fiscal Policy

Listed author(s):
  • Eric M. Leeper
  • Alexander W. Richter
  • Todd B. Walker

Legislative and implementation lags imply that substantial time evolves between when news arrives about fiscal changes and when the changes actually take place—time when households and firms can adjust their behavior. We identify two types of fiscal news—government spending using the Survey of Professional Forecasters and taxes using the municipal bond market. The main contribution of the paper is a mapping from reduced-form estimates of news into a DSGE framework. We find that news about fiscal policy is a time-varying process and show that ignoring the time variation can have important consequences in a conventional macroeconomic model. (JEL E12, E62, H20, H30, H62)

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This chapter was published in:
  • Roger Gordon & Roberto Perotti, 2012. "Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar (TAPES), Fiscal Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord10-1, November.
  • This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 13347.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13347
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    1. Roberto perotti, 2011. "Expectations and Fiscal Policy: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 429, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    2. Park, Sangkyun, 1997. "The Relationship Between Government Financial Condition and Expected Tax Rates Reflected in Municipal Bond Yields," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-38, March.
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    20. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu‐Chun Susan Yang, 2013. "Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1115-1145, 05.
    21. Harvey,Andrew & Koopman,Siem Jan & Shephard,Neil (ed.), 2004. "State Space and Unobserved Component Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521835954, March.
    22. Alan J. Auerbach & Joel Slemrod, 1997. "The Economic Effects of the Tax Reform Act of 1986," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 589-632, June.
    23. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2008. "What's News in Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 14215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Christiano, Lawrence & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo & Ilut, Cosmin, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 955, European Central Bank.
    25. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2008. "Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics," NBER Working Papers 14028, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    27. Nora Traum & Shu‐Chun S. Yang, 2015. "When Does Government Debt Crowd Out Investment?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 24-45, 01.
    28. Andrew Ang & Vineer Bhansali & Yuhang Xing, 2010. "Taxes on Tax-Exempt Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 565-601, 04.
    29. Eric Leeper & Todd Walker, 2011. "Information Flows and News Driven Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 55-71, January.
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