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Do Fiscal Spillovers Matter?

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  • Mr. Sebastian Weber
  • Anna Ivanova

Abstract

The paper assesses the impact of fiscal spillovers on growth in the context of a coordinated exit from crisis management policies. We find that despite potentially sizeable domestic effects from consolidation, aggregate negative spillovers to other countries are likely to be contained in 2011-2012 unless fiscal multipliers and/or imports elasticities are very large. Small and open European economies, however, will be substantially affected in any case. In contrast, the coordinated exit from fiscal stimulus will have limited direct effect on European peripheral countries since they are relatively closed, with the notable exception of Ireland.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Sebastian Weber & Anna Ivanova, 2011. "Do Fiscal Spillovers Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2011/211, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/211
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    Cited by:

    1. Gour Gobinda Goswami & Farzana Alamgir, 2018. "Does Economic Growth Spillover More from the Eastern than the Western Countries? Evidence from Bangladesh’s Four Decades of Growth Experience," South Asian Survey, , vol. 25(1-2), pages 59-83, March.
    2. Antoine Goujard, 2017. "Cross‐Country Spillovers from Fiscal Consolidations," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 38, pages 219-267, June.
    3. Michael B Devereux & Karine Gente & Changhua Yu, 2023. "Production Networks And International Fiscal Spillovers," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(653), pages 1871-1900.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "German-Central European Supply Chain-Cluster Report: Staff Report, First Background Note, Second Background Note, Third Background Note," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/263, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Vanessa Kunzmann, 2023. "Estimating Regime Dependent Fiscal Spillover Effects in a Monetary Union," Working Papers 227, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    6. Joao Tovar Jalles, 2015. "How Quickly is News Incorporated in Fiscal Forecasts?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2802-2812.
    7. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2014. "Discretionary fiscal policy and economic activity in Greece," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 687-712, November.
    8. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2017. "Addressing the Core-Periphery Imbalances in Europe: Resource Misallocation and Expansionary Fiscal Policies," EconPol Working Paper 6, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    9. Fabian Bornhorst & Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2012. "Tests of German Resilience," IMF Working Papers 2012/239, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Matija Lozej & Graeme Walsh, 2021. "Fiscal Policy Spillovers in a Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 1089-1117, November.
    11. Elekdag, Selim & Muir, Dirk & Wu, Yiqun, 2015. "Trade linkages, balance sheets, and spillovers: The Germany-Central European Supply Chain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 374-387.
    12. Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Mr. Dirk V Muir, 2013. "Trade Linkages, Balance Sheets, and Spillovers: The Germany-Central European Supply Chain," IMF Working Papers 2013/210, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2013. "The German Model and the European Crisis," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(6), pages 1023-1039, November.
    14. Oriol Carreras & Simon Kirby & Iana Liadze & Rebecca Piggott, 2016. "Fiscal Policy Spillovers," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 468, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    15. Bornhorst, Fabian & Mody, Ashoka, 2012. "Test of the German resilience," CFS Working Paper Series 2012/14, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    16. Ferdinandusse, Marien & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Lalouette, Laure & Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Palaiodimos, Georgios & Trindade Campos, Maria Manuel, 2017. "Euro area fiscal stance," Occasional Paper Series 182, European Central Bank.
    17. Oriol Carreras & Iana Liadze & Simon Kirby & Rebecca Piggott, 2016. "Quantifying Fiscal Multipliers," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 469, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

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