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What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-regression analysis

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  • Sebastian Gechert

Abstract

I apply a meta-regression analysis to a unique data set of 104 studies on multiplier effects to derive stylized facts and quantify the differing effectiveness of the composition of fiscal impulses, adjusted for study design characteristics. Public spending multipliers are close to 1 and about 0.3 to 0.4 units larger than tax and transfer multipliers. Public investment multipliers are even larger than those of spending in general by approximately 0.5 unit. Multipliers vary with study design, whose influence should be laid open when drawing policy conclusions. The analysis provides guidance concerning influential factors, their significance, and magnitude.

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  • Sebastian Gechert, 2015. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-regression analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 553-580.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:67:y:2015:i:3:p:553-580.
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    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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