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Production Networks and International Fiscal Spillovers

Author

Listed:
  • Michael B Devereux

    (NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research, UBC - University of British Columbia [Canada])

  • Karine Gente

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Changhua Yu

    (Peking University [Beijing])

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of fiscal spending shocks in a dynamic, multi-country model with international production networks. The response of real gross domestic product to a fiscal spending shock can be decomposed into a direct effect, income effect and price effect. The direct effect depends only on input-output linkages, while the price effect is zero in the aggregate. We apply this decomposition to the Eurozone, and find that fiscal spillovers from Germany and the core Eurozone countries can be large, and within the range of empirical estimates. Without international production networks, spillovers would be significantly smaller. In an empirical application, using the decomposition, we find results strongly consistent with the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael B Devereux & Karine Gente & Changhua Yu, 2023. "Production Networks and International Fiscal Spillovers," Post-Print hal-04001164, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04001164
    DOI: 10.1093/ej/uead014
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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Fontanelli & Mauro Napoletano & Angelo Secchi, 2025. "Rethinking volatility scaling in firm growth," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-05261824, HAL.
    2. Jérôme Creel, 2021. "Establishing a Fiscal Dialogue in Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(3), pages 339-355, September.
    3. Anastasiia Antonova & Ralph Luetticke & Gernot J. Muller & Gernot Müller, 2025. "The Military Multiplier," CESifo Working Paper Series 11882, CESifo.
    4. Chen, Sihao, 2025. "International production networks and the propagation of financial shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    5. Bouakez, Hafedh & Rachedi, Omar & Santoro, Emiliano, 2025. "The sectoral origins of heterogeneous spending multipliers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    6. Yihan Liao, 2025. "Microeconomic Shock Propagation Through Production Networks in China," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-36, January.
    7. Jorge Miranda-Pinto & Eric R. Young, 2022. "Flexibility and Frictions in Multisector Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 450-480, July.
    8. García, Carlos J. & González, Wildo & Valenzuela, Gabriel, 2025. "The valuation of economic recovery: The case for investment-led fiscal spending policies in open economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    9. Dohwa, Kohjiro, 2024. "The role of local currency pricing in the international transmission effects of a government spending shock in an economy with vertical production linkage and foreign direct investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    10. Gnocato, Nicolò & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Stamato, Giovanni, 2025. "Tariffs across the supply chain," Working Paper Series 3081, European Central Bank.
    11. Xu, Zhihao & Yu, Changhua, 2025. "Optimal monetary policy in production networks with distortions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    12. Devereux, Michael B. & Yu, Changhua, 2019. "Models of international fiscal spillovers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 76-79.
    13. He, Ying & Yu, Changhua, 2025. "Fiscal multipliers, sectoral heterogeneity and reallocation in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    14. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Drivers of international fiscal spillovers," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 1491-1536, November.
    15. Ernst, Anne & Hinterlang, Natascha & Mahle, Alexander & Stähler, Nikolai, 2022. "Carbon pricing, border adjustment and climate clubs: An assessment with EMuSe," Discussion Papers 25/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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