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Carbon pricing, border adjustment and climate clubs: An assessment with EMuSe

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  • Ernst, Anne
  • Hinterlang, Natascha
  • Mahle, Alexander
  • Stähler, Nikolai

Abstract

In a dynamic, three-region environmental multi-sector general equilibrium model (called EMuSe), we find that carbon pricing generates a recession initially as production costs rise. Benefits from lower emissions damage materialize only in the medium to long run. A border adjustment mechanism mitigates but does not prevent carbon leakage, but it 'protects' dirty domestic production sectors in particular. From the perspective of a region that introduces carbon pricing, the downturn is shorter and long-run benefits are larger if more regions levy a price on emissions. However, for non-participating regions, there is no incremental incentive to participate as they forego trade spillovers from carbon leakage and face higher production costs along the transition. In the end, they may be better off not participating. Because of the costly transition, average world welfare may fall as a result of global carbon pricing unless 'the rich' assist 'the poor'.

Suggested Citation

  • Ernst, Anne & Hinterlang, Natascha & Mahle, Alexander & Stähler, Nikolai, 2022. "Carbon pricing, border adjustment and climate clubs: An assessment with EMuSe," Discussion Papers 25/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:252022
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon Pricing; Border Adjustment; Climate Clubs; International Dynamic General Equilibrium Model; Sectoral Heterogeneity; Input-Output Matrix;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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