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Macroeconomic Effects of Carbon Transition Policies: An Assessment Based on the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model with a Disaggregated Energy Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Coenen, Günter

    (European Central Bank)

  • Lozej, Matija

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Priftis, Romanos

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

In this paper, we use scenario analysis to assess the macroeconomic effects of carbon transition policies aimed at mitigating climate change. To this end, we employ a version of the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) augmented with a framework of disaggregated energy production and use, which distinguishes between “dirty†and “clean†energy. Our central transition scenario is that of a permanent increase in carbon taxes, which are levied as a surcharge on the price of dirty energy. Our findings suggest that increasing euro area carbon taxes to an interim target level consistent with the transition to a net-zero economy entails a transitory rise in inflation and a lasting, albeit moderate decline in GDP. We show that the short and medium-term effects depend on the monetary policy reaction, the path of the carbon tax increase and its credibility, while expanding clean energy supply is key for containing the decline in GDP. Undesirable distributional effects can be addressed by redistributing the fiscal revenues from the carbon tax increase across households.

Suggested Citation

  • Coenen, Günter & Lozej, Matija & Priftis, Romanos, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Carbon Transition Policies: An Assessment Based on the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model with a Disaggregated Energy Sector," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/23, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:8/rt/23
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

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    2. Valli Jorge, Marcos & Fasolo, Angelo M & de Azevedo Costa, Silvio Michael, 2025. "Mitigating policies for pollutant emissions in a DSGE for the Brazilian economy," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 6(3).
    3. Carattini, Stefano & Kim, Giseong & Melkadze, Givi & Pommeret, Aude, 2024. "Carbon taxes and tariffs, financial frictions, and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    4. Fanny Henriet & Yannick Kalantzis & Matthieu Lemoine & Noëmie Lisack & Harri Turunen, 2025. "Bridging the Gap in Macroeconomic Analysis of the Energy Transition: Combining Medium-and Long-Term Approaches," Working papers 1000, Banque de France.
    5. Beltrán, Felipe & Durand, Luigi & González-Frugone, Mario & Moreno, Javier, 2025. "A preliminary assessment of the economic effects of energy and climate in Chile," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 6(3).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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