IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/110141.html

Greta Thunberg effect and Business Cycle Dynamics: A DSGE model

Author

Listed:
  • Busato, Francesco
  • Chiarini, Bruno
  • Cisco, Gianluigi
  • Ferrara, Maria

Abstract

The increasing concerns for the future effects of global warming have given rise to an unprecedented wave of environmental activism. This paper studies how this call for stronger climate actions could influence macroeconomic dynamics. We explore this topic, employing a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model extended to consider two classes of goods (i.e., Green and Dirty), variable green preferences, and a "Greta Thunberg" shock affecting consumers' sustainable attitudes. We find that: (i) environmental awareness plays a key role in reducing carbon emissions and green preferences; (ii) Greta Thunberg effect slows down aggregate output and investment; (iii) a green preference shock contributes to around 15 and 29 % of consumption, investment, and labor volatilities at the aggregate level.

Suggested Citation

  • Busato, Francesco & Chiarini, Bruno & Cisco, Gianluigi & Ferrara, Maria, 2021. "Greta Thunberg effect and Business Cycle Dynamics: A DSGE model," MPRA Paper 110141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110141
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/110141/1/MPRA_paper_110141.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramelli, Stefano & Ossola, Elisa & Rancan, Michela, 2021. "Stock price effects of climate activism: Evidence from the first Global Climate Strike," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    2. Chan, Ying Tung, 2020. "Optimal emissions tax rates under habit formation and social comparisons," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Gadenne, David & Sharma, Bishnu & Kerr, Don & Smith, Tim, 2011. "The influence of consumers' environmental beliefs and attitudes on energy saving behaviours," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7684-7694.
    4. Baiardi, Donatella & Morana, Claudio, 2021. "Climate change awareness: Empirical evidence for the European Union," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    5. Khan, Hashmat & Metaxoglou, Konstantinos & Knittel, Christopher R. & Papineau, Maya, 2019. "Carbon emissions and business cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-19.
    6. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & George Economides & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2010. "What is the best environmental policy?Taxes, permits and rules under economic and environmental uncertainty," Working Papers 119, Bank of Greece.
    7. Iosifidi, Maria, 2016. "Environmental awareness, consumption, and labor supply: Empirical evidence from household survey data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1-11.
    8. Llavador, Humberto & Roemer, John E. & Silvestre, Joaquim, 2011. "“A dynamic analysis of human welfare in a warming planet”," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1607-1620.
    9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    10. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio, 2017. "GHG Emissions Control and Monetary Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(4), pages 823-851, August.
    11. William Brock & M. Taylor, 2010. "The Green Solow model," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 127-153, June.
    12. Frederiks, Elisha R. & Stenner, Karen & Hobman, Elizabeth V., 2015. "Household energy use: Applying behavioural economics to understand consumer decision-making and behaviour," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1385-1394.
    13. Christopher Gust & Edward Herbst & David López-Salido & Matthew E. Smith, 2017. "The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1971-2006, July.
    14. David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Giovanni Baiocchi & Jan Minx & Klaus Hubacek, 2010. "The Impact of Social Factors and Consumer Behavior on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the United Kingdom," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 14(1), pages 50-72, January.
    16. Chan, Ying Tung, 2020. "Are macroeconomic policies better in curbing air pollution than environmental policies? A DSGE approach with carbon-dependent fiscal and monetary policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    17. Dietz, Simon & Bowen, Alex & Dixon, Charlie & Gradwell, Philip, 2016. "Climate value at risk of global financial assets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66226, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Faria, João Ricardo & McAdam, Peter, 2018. "The green golden rule: Habit and anticipation of future consumption," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 131-133.
    19. Bin, Shui & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2005. "Corrigendum to "Consumer lifestyles approach to US energy use and the related CO2 emissions": [Energy Policy 33 (2005) 197-208]," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1362-1363, July.
    20. Ciarli, Tommaso & Savona, Maria, 2019. "Modelling the Evolution of Economic Structure and Climate Change: A Review," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 51-64.
    21. Carroll, Christopher D & Overland, Jody & Weil, David N, 1997. "Comparison Utility in a Growth Model," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 339-367, December.
    22. Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2016. "The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3133-3158, October.
    23. Carolyn Fischer & Garth Heutel, 2013. "Environmental Macroeconomics: Environmental Policy, Business Cycles, and Directed Technical Change," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 197-210, June.
    24. Ying Tung Chan, 2019. "Optimal Environmental Tax Rate in an Open Economy with Labor Migration—An E-DSGE Model Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-38, September.
    25. Paul De Grauwe, 2012. "Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 9891, December.
    26. Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim, 2007. "Heterogeneity and Aggregation: Implications for Labor-Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1939-1956, December.
    27. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    28. Gronwald, Marc & Hintermann, Beat (ed.), 2015. "Emissions Trading as a Policy Instrument: Evaluation and Prospects," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262029286, December.
    29. Jody Overland & Christopher D. Carroll & David N. Weil, 2000. "Saving and Growth with Habit Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 341-355, June.
    30. Doda, Baran, 2014. "Evidence on business cycles and CO2 emissions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 214-227.
    31. Bin, Shui & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2005. "Consumer lifestyle approach to US energy use and the related CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 197-208, January.
    32. Garth Heutel, 2012. "How Should Environmental Policy Respond to Business Cycles? Optimal Policy under Persistent Productivity Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 244-264, April.
    33. Niu, Tong & Yao, Xilong & Shao, Shuai & Li, Ding & Wang, Wenxi, 2018. "Environmental tax shocks and carbon emissions: An estimated DSGE model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 9-17.
    34. James E. Neumann & Jacqueline Willwerth & Jeremy Martinich & James McFarland & Marcus C. Sarofim & Gary Yohe, 2020. "Climate Damage Functions for Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the United States," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 25-43.
    35. J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    36. Apostolakis, Bobby E., 1990. "Energy--capital substitutability/ complementarity : The dichotomy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 48-58, January.
    37. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Diluiso, Francesca, 2019. "International transmission of the business cycle and environmental policy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    38. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio, 2015. "Environmental policy and macroeconomic dynamics in a new Keynesian model," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-21.
    39. Delis, Manthos D. & Iosifidi, Maria, 2020. "Environmentally aware households," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 263-279.
    40. Malerba, Franco & Orsenigo, Luigi, 1997. "Technological Regimes and Sectoral Patterns of Innovative Activities," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 6(1), pages 83-117.
    41. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    42. Doda, Baran, 2014. "Evidence on business cycles and CO2 emissions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57009, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    43. Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre Salem & Pereira de Lucena, André Frossard & Moreira Cesar Borba, Bruno Soares & Pupo Nogueira, Larissa Pinheiro & Fleming, Fernanda Pereira & Troccoli, Alberto & , 2012. "Energy sector vulnerability to climate change: A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-12.
    44. Nicholas Stern, 2013. "The Structure of Economic Modeling of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change: Grafting Gross Underestimation of Risk onto Already Narrow Science Models," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 838-859, September.
    45. Mikhail Golosov & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 41-88, January.
    46. Argentiero, Amedeo & Bollino, Carlo Andrea & Micheli, Silvia & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2018. "Renewable energy sources policies in a Bayesian DSGE model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 60-68.
    47. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.
    48. Nicholas Stern, 2008. "The Economics of Climate Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 1-37, May.
    49. Amedeo Argentiero, Tarek Atalla, Simona Bigerna, Silvia Micheli, and Paolo Polinori, 2017. "Comparing Renewable Energy Policies in EU-15, U.S. and China: A Bayesian DSGE Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(KAPSARC S).
    50. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & George Economides & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2013. "First-and second-best allocations under economic and environmental uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(3), pages 360-380, June.
    51. Alfredsson, E.C., 2004. "“Green” consumption—no solution for climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 513-524.
    52. Jakučionytė-Skodienė, Miglė & Dagiliūtė, Renata & Liobikienė, Genovaitė, 2020. "Do general pro-environmental behaviour, attitude, and knowledge contribute to energy savings and climate change mitigation in the residential sector?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    53. Fischer, Carolyn & Springborn, Michael, 2011. "Emissions targets and the real business cycle: Intensity targets versus caps or taxes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 352-366.
    54. Matteo Iacoviello, 2015. "Financial Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 140-164, January.
    55. Dissou, Yazid & Karnizova, Lilia, 2016. "Emissions cap or emissions tax? A multi-sector business cycle analysis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 169-188.
    56. Matthew E. Kahn & Matthew J. Kotchen, 2010. "Environmental Concern and the Business Cycle: The Chilling Effect of Recession," NBER Working Papers 16241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    57. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini & Gianluigi Cisco & Maria Ferrara, 2023. "Green preferences," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 3211-3253, April.
    2. Chan, Ying Tung & Zhao, Hong, 2023. "Optimal carbon tax rates in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a supply chain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. Chan, Ying Tung & Zhao, Hong, 2019. "How do credit market frictions affect carbon cycles? an estimated DSGE model approach," MPRA Paper 106987, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Dec 2020.
    4. Barbara Annicchiarico & Stefano Carattini & Carolyn Fischer & Garth Heutel, 2022. "Business Cycles and Environmental Policy: A Primer," Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 221-253.
    5. Chan, Ying Tung, 2020. "Optimal emissions tax rates under habit formation and social comparisons," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. Barbara Annicchiarico & Marco Carli & Francesca Diluiso, 2022. "Climate Policies, Macroprudential Regulation, and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles," CEIS Research Paper 543, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 31 Oct 2022.
    7. Xiao, Bowen & Fan, Ying & Guo, Xiaodan, 2018. "Exploring the macroeconomic fluctuations under different environmental policies in China: A DSGE approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 439-456.
    8. Marco Carli, 2025. "Green Ambiguity," CEIS Research Paper 591, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 05 Feb 2025.
    9. Diluiso, Francesca & Annicchiarico, Barbara & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Minx, Jan C., 2021. "Climate actions and macro-financial stability: The role of central banks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Diluiso, Francesca, 2019. "International transmission of the business cycle and environmental policy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    11. Chen, Chuanqi & Pan, Dongyang & Huang, Zhigang & Bleischwitz, Raimund, 2021. "Engaging central banks in climate change? The mix of monetary and climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    12. Huang, Bihong & Punzi, Maria Teresa & Wu, Yu, 2022. "Environmental regulation and financial stability: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    13. Jianping Gu & Yi Li & Jingke Hong & Lu Wang, 2024. "Carbon emissions cap or energy technology subsidies? Exploring the carbon reduction policy based on a multi-technology sectoral DSGE model," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.
    14. Xiao, Bowen & Fan, Ying & Guo, Xiaodan, 2021. "Dynamic interactive effect and co-design of SO2 emission tax and CO2 emission trading scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    15. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio & Diluiso, Francesca, 2024. "Climate actions, market beliefs, and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 176-208.
    16. Eric Jondeau & Grégory Levieuge & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Gauthier Vermandel, 2023. "Environmental Subsidies to Mitigate Net-Zero Transition Costs," Working papers 910, Banque de France.
    17. de Lima e Silva, Yuri Cesar & Silva, Marcelo E.A., 2024. "Optimal environmental policy and business cycles: An analysis using an E2-DSGE model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(PC).
    18. Chen, Chuanqi & Pan, Dongyang, 2020. "The Optimal Mix of Monetary and Climate Policy," MPRA Paper 97718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Stefano Carattini & Garth Heutel & Givi Melkadze, 2023. "Climate Policy, Financial Frictions, and Transition Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 778-794, December.
    20. Sandra Batten & Stephen Millard, 2024. "Energy and climate policy in a DSGE model of the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 1064, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.