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Evidence on business cycles and CO2 emissions

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  • Doda, Baran

Abstract

CO2 emissions and GDP move together over the business cycle. Most climate change researchers would agree with this statement despite the absence of a study that formally analyzes the relationship between emissions and GDP at business cycle frequencies. The paper provides a rigorous empirical analysis of this relationship in a comprehensive cross-country panel by decomposing the emissions and GDP series into their growth and cyclical components using the HP filter. Focusing on the cyclical components, four robust facts emerge: (1) Emissions are procyclical. (2) Procyclicality of emissions is positively correlated with GDP per capita. (3) Emissions are cyclically more volatile than GDP. (4) Cyclical volatility of emissions is negatively correlated with GDP per capita. These facts are potentially important for the calibration of theoretical models used to evaluate climate change mitigation policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Doda, Baran, 2014. "Evidence on business cycles and CO2 emissions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 214-227.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:214-227
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.01.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Lamperti & Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Sandro Sapio, 2017. "Faraway, so close : coupled climate and economic dynamics in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4hs7liq1f49, Sciences Po.
    2. Dobes Leo & Jotzo Frank & Stern David I., 2014. "The Economics of Global Climate Change: A Historical Literature Review," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(3), pages 281-320, December.
    3. Dissou, Yazid & Karnizova, Lilia, 2016. "Emissions cap or emissions tax? A multi-sector business cycle analysis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 169-188.
    4. Hashmat Khan & Christopher R. Knittel & Konstantinos Metaxoglou & Maya M. Papineau, 2015. "Carbon Emissions and Business Cycles," Carleton Economic Papers 15-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 06 May 2017.
    5. Barbara Annicchiarico & Francesca Diluiso, 2017. "International Transmission of the Business Cycle and Environmental Policy," CEIS Research Paper 423, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 19 Dec 2017.
    6. Fankhauser, Sam & Gennaioli, Caterina & Collins, Murray, 2015. "The political economy of passing climate change legislation: evidence from a survey," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 63352, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Sheldon, Tamara L., 2017. "Asymmetric effects of the business cycle on carbon dioxide emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 289-297.
    8. Baran Doda, Simon Quemin, Luca Taschini, 2017. "A theory of gains from trade in multilaterally linked ETSs," GRI Working Papers 275, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    9. Paul J. Burke & Md Shahiduzzaman & David I. Stern, 2015. "Carbon dioxide emissions in the short run: The rate and sources of economic growth matter," CAMA Working Papers 2015-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. repec:eco:journ2:2017-05-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Lake, James & Linask, Maia K., 2016. "Could tariffs be pro-cyclical?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 124-146.
    12. repec:ucp:jaerec:doi:10.1086/691975 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Baran Doda & Luca Taschini, 2017. "Carbon Dating: When Is It Beneficial to Link ETSs?," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(3), pages 701-730.
    14. Inés Berniell, 2018. "Pay Cycles: Individual and Aggregate Effects of Paycheck Frequency," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0221, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    15. Shahiduzzaman, Md. & Layton, Allan, 2015. "Changes in CO2 emissions over business cycle recessions and expansions in the United States: A decomposition analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 25-35.
    16. Roach, Travis, 2015. "Hidden regimes and the demand for carbon dioxide from motor-gasoline," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 306-315.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle fluctuations; Climate change; CO2 emissions;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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