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GEEM: a policy model for assessing climate-energy reforms in Italy

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Barbara Annicchiarico
  • Susan Battles
  • Fabio Di Dio
  • Pierfrancesco Molina
  • Pietro Zoppoli

Abstract

We build up a large scale, New Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model embodying a cap on pollutant emissions, an electricity sector and fuel consumption to analyse climate-energy policies for the Italian economy. We consider several applications to illustrate how emission mitigation policies are likely to affect the economy. Our results show that a major trade-off may emerge between environmental quality and economic activity. However, we show how this potential trade-off can be effectively overcome by recycling the revenues from the sales of emission permits. Also,we find that the presence of an emission cap may significantly limit the expansionary effects of fiscal interventions as well as of policies aimed at fostering competition and productivity. Finally, a negative shock on gas and oil prices has a positive effect on the level of economic activity but is also found to increase investment in renewable sources.

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File URL: http://www.dt.mef.gov.it/export/sites/sitodt/modules/documenti_it/analisi_progammazione/working_papers/WP_N_3_-_Maggio_2016.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance in its series Working Papers with number 3.

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Length: 46
Date of creation: May 2016
Handle: RePEc:itt:wpaper:2016-3
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.dt.tesoro.it
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Keywords: Environmental policy; GHG emissions; dynamic general equilibrium model; simulation analysis; Italy;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
  • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
  • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
  • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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  1. Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Romain Duval & Alessandra Sgobbi & Massimo Tavoni, 2009. "The Role of R&D and Technology Diffusion in Climate Change Mitigation: New Perspectives Using the WITCH Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 664, OECD Publishing.
  2. Bartocci, Anna & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2013. "“Green” fuel tax on private transportation services and subsidies to electric energy. A model-based assessment for the main European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages 32-57.
  3. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
  4. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 25-46, Fall.
  5. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Dio & Francesco Felici, 2015. "Fiscal Devaluation Scenarios: A Quantitative Assessment for the Italian Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 731-785, September.
  6. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  7. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio & Felici, Francesco, 2013. "Structural reforms and the potential effects on the Italian economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 88-109.
  8. Fischer, Carolyn & Springborn, Michael, 2011. "Emissions targets and the real business cycle: Intensity targets versus caps or taxes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 352-366.
  9. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & George Economides & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2013. "First-and second-best allocations under economic and environmental uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(3), pages 360-380, June.
  10. Dissou, Yazid & Karnizova, Lilia, 2016. "Emissions cap or emissions tax? A multi-sector business cycle analysis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 169-188.
  11. Gelabert, Liliana & Labandeira, Xavier & Linares, Pedro, 2011. "An ex-post analysis of the effect of renewables and cogeneration on Spanish electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(S1), pages 59-65.
  12. Carolyn Fischer & Garth Heutel, 2013. "Environmental Macroeconomics: Environmental Policy, Business Cycles, and Directed Technical Change," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 197-210, June.
  13. Garth Heutel, 2012. "How Should Environmental Policy Respond to Business Cycles? Optimal Policy under Persistent Productivity Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 244-264, April.
  14. Ganelli, Giovanni & Tervala, Juha, 2011. "International transmission of environmental policy: A New Keynesian perspective," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(11), pages 2070-2082, September.
  15. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio, 2015. "Environmental policy and macroeconomic dynamics in a new Keynesian model," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-21.
  16. Garth Heutel, 2012. "How Should Environmental Policy Respond to Business Cycles? Optimal Policy under Persistent Productivity Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 244-264, April.
  17. Andrea Conte & Ariane Labat & Janos Varga & Ziga Zarnic, 2010. "What is the growth potential of green innovation? An assessment of EU climate policy options," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 413, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  18. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
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Cited by:

  1. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Battles, Susan & Di Dio, Fabio & Molina, Pierfrancesco & Zoppoli, Pietro, 2017. "GHG mitigation schemes and energy policies: A model-based assessment for the Italian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 495-509.

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