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Structural reforms and the potential effects on the Italian economy

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  • Annicchiarico, Barbara
  • Di Dio, Fabio
  • Felici, Francesco

Abstract

Since the second half of 2011, after a period of prolonged low growth, Italy has found itself at the center of a severe economic crisis. Concerns about the sustainability of its debt burden, along with gloomy growth prospects, have pushed up the cost of government borrowing, exacerbating current economic conditions. At the moment Italy is facing two mounting economic challenges: (i) achieve a rapid fiscal consolidation to restore financial market confidence; (ii) implement structural reforms to strengthen medium-term growth prospects. Using the European Commission's model QUEST III with R&D, adapted to Italy, we quantify the potential effects of a set of interventions inspired to the reform packages currently being undertaken or under discussion and consider different levels of policy effort. Results show that reforms are likely to bring about sizable gains in output, consumption, employment and net foreign assets position and that most of these gains derive from labor market reforms. However, the fiscal austerity plan is likely to severely mitigate the positive effects of the interventions, especially during the earlier phases of the reform process. Most of these losses accrue to liquidity-constraint households who would experience a drop in consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio & Felici, Francesco, 2013. "Structural reforms and the potential effects on the Italian economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 88-109.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:1:p:88-109 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.03.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Dio & Francesco Felici, 2015. "Fiscal Devaluation Scenarios: A Quantitative Assessment for the Italian Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 731-785, September.
    2. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Martinez Oliva, Juan Carlos, 2015. "The importance of trade and capital imbalances in the European debt crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 229-252.
    3. Artzrouni, Marc & Tramontana, Fabio, 2013. "The debt trap: a two-compartment train wreck," MPRA Paper 47578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Lusine Lusinyan & Dirk V Muir, 2013. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms The Case of Italy," IMF Working Papers 13/22, International Monetary Fund.
    5. B. Campagne & A. Poissonnier, 2016. "Laffer curves and fiscal multipliers: lessons from Mélèze model," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2016-06, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
    6. Barbara Annicchiarico & Anna Rita Bennato & Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2014. "150 Years of Italian CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth," CREATES Research Papers 2014-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Barbara Annicchiarico, Fabio Di Dio, Francesco Felici, 2013. "Pro-Competitive Reforms And Timing Of Implementation: An Igem-Based Simulation Analysis For Italy," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - Italian Review of Economics, Demography and Statistics, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 67(2), pages 155-170, April-Jun.
    8. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici & Francesco Nucci, 2014. "Assessing Policy Reforms for Italy Using ITEM and QUEST III," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 3, pages 211-244, July-Sept.
    9. De Socio, Antonio & Michelangeli, Valentina, 2017. "A model to assess the financial vulnerability of Italian firms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 147-168.
    10. Anderson, Derek & Hunt, Benjamin & Snudden, Stephen, 2014. "Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: How much pain can structural reforms ease?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 785-799.
    11. Buiatti, Cesare & Carmeci, Gaetano & Mauro, Luciano, 2014. "The origins of the public debt of Italy: Geographically dispersed interests?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 43-62.
    12. FRANCESCO FELICI & Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio, 2012. "Structural Reforms and the Potential Effects on the Italian Economy," EcoMod2012 5073, EcoMod.
    13. Artzrouni, Marc & Tramontana, Fabio, 2014. "The debt trap: A two-compartment train wreck… and how to avoid it," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 241-256.
    14. Barbara Annicchiarico & Susan Battles & Fabio Di Dio & Pierfrancesco Molina & Pietro Zoppoli, 2016. "GEEM: a policy model for assessing climate-energy reforms in Italy," Working Papers 3, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural reforms; Fiscal consolidation; Simulation analysis; Italy;

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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