IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Structural reforms and the potential effects on the Italian economy

  • Annicchiarico, Barbara
  • Di Dio, Fabio
  • Felici, Francesco

Since the second half of 2011, after a period of prolonged low growth, Italy has found itself at the center of a severe economic crisis. Concerns about the sustainability of its debt burden, along with gloomy growth prospects, have pushed up the cost of government borrowing, exacerbating current economic conditions. At the moment Italy is facing two mounting economic challenges: (i) achieve a rapid fiscal consolidation to restore financial market confidence; (ii) implement structural reforms to strengthen medium-term growth prospects. Using the European Commission's model QUEST III with R&D, adapted to Italy, we quantify the potential effects of a set of interventions inspired to the reform packages currently being undertaken or under discussion and consider different levels of policy effort. Results show that reforms are likely to bring about sizable gains in output, consumption, employment and net foreign assets position and that most of these gains derive from labor market reforms. However, the fiscal austerity plan is likely to severely mitigate the positive effects of the interventions, especially during the earlier phases of the reform process. Most of these losses accrue to liquidity-constraint households who would experience a drop in consumption.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016189381200035X
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 35 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 88-109

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:1:p:88-109
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Sandra Gomes & P. Jacquinot & M. Mohr & M. Pisani, 2011. "Structural reforms and macroeconomic performance in the euro area countries: a model-based assessment," Working Papers w201113, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  2. Blanchard, Olivier J & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2001. "Macroeconomic Effects of Regulation and Deregulation in Goods and Labour Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2713, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
  4. Djankov, Simeon & La Porta, Rafael & Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & Shleifer, Andrei, 2001. "The Regulation of Entry," Working Paper Series rwp01-015, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  5. Laura Bottazzi & Giovanni Peri, 2007. "The International Dynamics of R&D and Innovation in the Long Run and in The Short Run," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(518), pages 486-511, 03.
  6. Jacek Warda, 2006. "Tax Treatment of Business Investments in Intellectual Assets: An International Comparison," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2006/4, OECD Publishing.
  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  8. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October.
  9. Francesca D'Auria & Andrea Pagano & Marco Ratto & Janos Varga, 2009. "A comparison of structural reform scenarios across the EU member states - Simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth," European Economy - Economic Papers 392, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  10. Forni, Lorenzo & Gerali, Andrea & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2010. "The macroeconomics of fiscal consolidations in euro area countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1791-1812, September.
  11. Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 2009. "Fiscal policy with credit constrained households," European Economy - Economic Papers 357, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  12. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic modeling for monetary policy evaluation," Economics Working Papers 1039, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2007.
  13. Lorenzo Forni & Andrea Gerali & Massimiliano Pisani, 2009. "Macroeconomic effects of greater competition in the service sector: the case of Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 706, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  14. Bayoumi, Tamim & Laxton, Doug & Pesenti, Paolo, 2004. "Benefits and Spillovers of Greater Competition in Europe: A Macroeconomic Assessment," CEPR Discussion Papers 4481, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  16. Lorenzo Codogno, . "Two Italian Puzzles: Are Productivity Growth and Competitiveness Really so Depressed?," Working Papers wp2009-2, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
  17. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  18. Luc Everaert & Werner Schule, 2006. "Structural Reforms in the Euro Area: Economic Impact and Role of Synchronization Across Markets and Countries," IMF Working Papers 06/137, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Marattin, Luigi & Marzo, Massimiliano & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2011. "A welfare perspective on the fiscal–monetary policy mix: The role of alternative fiscal instruments," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 920-952.
  20. Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 2010. "Fiscal stimulus and exit strategies in the EU: a model-based analysis," European Economy - Economic Papers 426, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  21. Charles I. Jones, . "Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas," Working Papers 98009, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  22. Rebekka Christopoulou & Philip Vermeulen, 2012. "Markups in the Euro area and the US over the period 1981–2004: a comparison of 50 sectors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 53-77, February.
  23. Dimitris Papageorgiou, 2009. "Macroeconomic Implications of Alternative Tax Regimes: The Case of Greece," Working Papers 97, Bank of Greece.
  24. Alexandr Hobza & Gilles Mourre, 2010. "Quantifying the potential macroeconomic effects of the Europe 2020 strategy: stylised scenarios," European Economy - Economic Papers 424, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  25. Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan In't Veld, 2009. "Modelling the Lisbon Strategy: Analysing Policies to Promote Knowledge Investment with an Endogenous Growth Model," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(4), pages 520-539, December.
  26. Heer, Burkhard & Trede, Mark, 2003. "Efficiency and distribution effects of a revenue-neutral income tax reform," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 87-107, March.
  27. Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz & Yap, Su Fei, 2013. "The origins and evolution of policy modeling," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 170-182.
  28. Katz, L.F. & Murphy, K.M., 1991. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963-1987: Supply and Demand Factors," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1580, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  29. Andrea Conte & Ariane Labat & Janos Varga & Ziga Zarnic, 2010. "What is the growth potential of green innovation? An assessment of EU climate policy options," European Economy - Economic Papers 413, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  30. Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2008. "Structural Reforms in the EU: A simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth," European Economy - Economic Papers 351, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  31. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
  32. Jones, Charles I., 2005. "Growth and Ideas," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 1063-1111 Elsevier.
  33. Alfonso Arpaia & Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld & Alexandr Hobza & Isabel Grilo & Peter Wobst, 2007. "Quantitative assessment of Structural Reforms: Modelling the Lisbon Strategy," European Economy - Economic Papers 282, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  34. Pasquale Commendatore & Ingrid Kubin, 2009. "Dynamic effects of regulation and deregulation in goods and labour markets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(3), pages 517-537, July.
  35. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici, . "The Macroeconomics of Europe 2020 Reform Strategy and the Potential Effects on the Italian Economy," Working Papers 8, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
  36. Shang-Jin Wei, 1997. "Gradualism versus Big Bang: Speed and Sustainability of Reforms," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1234-47, November.
  37. Breuss, Fritz & Roeger, Werner, 2005. "The SGP fiscal rule in the case of sluggish growth: Simulations with the QUEST model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 767-788, October.
  38. Dani Rodrik, 1996. "Understanding Economic Policy Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 9-41, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:1:p:88-109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.