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Quantifying the potential macroeconomic effects of the Europe 2020 strategy: stylised scenarios

Listed author(s):
  • Alexandr Hobza
  • Gilles Mourre

Summary for non-specialistsAn essential part of the Europe 2020 strategy consists of reforms with a medium- to long-term horizon that focus on promoting the sustainability of public finances and enhancing potential growth. Building on structural reform simulations with the DSGE model QUEST III, this paper presents several stylised scenarios combining fiscal consolidation efforts with differentiated progress in implementing structural reforms to explore the possible extent of gains from such reforms. The results confirm that if the EU succeeds in generating necessary reform momentum, GDP could increase by up to 7% by 2020. The extent of the benefits will crucially depend on the depth and breadth of undertaken reforms, however..

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File URL: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/economic_paper/2010/pdf/ecp424_en.pdf
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Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 with number 424.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0424
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  1. Coenen, Günter & McAdam, Peter & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: A simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2543-2583, August.
  2. Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, 06.
  3. Harald Badinger, 2007. "Has the EU's Single Market Programme Fostered Competition? Testing for a Decrease in Mark-up Ratios in EU Industries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 497-519, 08.
  4. Luc Everaert & Werner Schule, 2006. "Structural Reforms in the Euro Area; Economic Impact and Role of Synchronization Across Markets and Countries," IMF Working Papers 06/137, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Francesca D'Auria & Andrea Pagano & Marco Ratto & Janos Varga, 2009. "A comparison of structural reform scenarios across the EU member states - Simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 392, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  6. Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2010. "How to close the productivity gap between the US and Europe: A quantitative assessment using a semi-endogenous growth model," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 399, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  7. Henk Kox & Arjan Lejour & Raymond Montizaan, 2004. "The free movement of services within the EU," CPB Document 69, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
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