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Did the pattern of aggregate employment growth change in the Euro area in the late 1990s?

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  • Gilles Mourre

Abstract

This paper examines whether the pattern of growth in euro area employment seen in the period 1997 to 2001 differs from that recorded in the past and what could be the reasons. First, a standard employment equation is estimated for the euro area as a whole. This shows that the lagged impact of both output growth and real labour cost growth, together with a productivity trend and employment 'inertia', can account for most of the employment developments between 1970 and the early 1990s. Conversely, these traditional determinants can only explain part of the employment development seen in recent years (1997 to 2001). Second, the paper shows sound evidence of a structural break in the aggregate employment equation in the late 1990s. Third, the paper provides some tentative explanations for this change in aggregate employment developments, using in particular country panels of institutional variables and of active labour market policies but also cross-sectional analyses. Among the relevant factors likely to have contributed to rising aggregate employment in recent years are changes in the sectoral composition of euro area employment, the strong development of part-time jobs, lower labour tax rates and possibly less stringent employment protection legislation and greater subsidies to private employment.
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  • Gilles Mourre, 2006. "Did the pattern of aggregate employment growth change in the Euro area in the late 1990s?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/14299, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/14299
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    Cited by:

    1. Beatrice Pierluigi & Jan Bruha & Roberta Serafini, 2014. "Euro area labour markets: Different reaction to shocks?," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 34-60, November.
    2. Carmen Camacho & Fabio Mariani & Luca Pensieroso, 2017. "Illegal immigration and the shadow economy," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(6), pages 1050-1080, December.
    3. H Buscher & C Dreger & R Ramos & J Surinach, 2009. "The Impact of Institutions on the Employment Performance in European Labour Markets," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 14(1), pages 17-34, March.
    4. Davide Furceri & Ernesto Crivelli & Joël Toujas-Bernate, 2012. "Can Policies Affect Employment Intensity of Growth? A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 12/218, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Muriel Dejemeppe & Catherine Smith & Bruno der Linden, 2015. "Did the Intergenerational Solidarity Pact increase the employment rate of older workers in Belgium? A macro-econometric evaluation," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, December.
    6. Alfonso Arpaia & Gilles Mourre, 2012. "Institutions And Performance In European Labour Markets: Taking A Fresh Look At Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 1-41, February.
    7. Laure Turner & Hervé Boulhol, 2008. "Recent Trends and Structural Breaks in US and EU15 Labour Productivity Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 628, OECD Publishing.
    8. Pattanaik, Falguni & Nayak, Narayan Chandra, 2013. "Employment Intensity Of Secondary Sector In India: Trends, Patterns And Determinants," Journal of Regional Development and Planning, JRDP, vol. 2(2), pages 157-174.
    9. Davide Furceri, 2012. "Unemployment and Labor Market Issues in Algeria," IMF Working Papers 12/99, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Liana Son & Gratiela Georgiana Carica, 2011. "Labour Market Policies in Selected EU Member States: A Comparative and Impact Analysis," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 14(39), pages 151-173, March.
    11. Herwartz, Helmut & Niebuhr, Annekatrin, 2011. "Regional labor demand and national labor market institutions in the EU15," HWWI Research Papers 112, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    12. Falguni Pattanaik & Narayan Nayak, 2014. "Economic freedom and economic growth in India: What is the empirical relationship?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 275-298, November.
    13. PERUGINI, Cristiano, 2009. "Employment Intensity Of Growth In Italy. A Note Using Regional Data," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    14. Emilia Herman, 2011. "The Impact of Economic Growth Process on Employment in European Union Countries," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 14(42), pages 47-67, December.
    15. Bergljot B Barkbu & Jesmin Rahman & Rodrigo O. Valdes, 2012. "Fostering Growth in Europe Now," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/07, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Catherine SMITH, 2014. "Did the Intergenerational Solidarity Pact increase the employment rate of the elderly in Belgium? A macro-econometric evaluation," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2014009, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    17. Jochen Hartwig, 2014. "Testing Okun’s law with Swiss industry data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(29), pages 3581-3590, October.
    18. Klump, Rainer & McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2008. "Unwrapping some euro area growth puzzles: Factor substitution, productivity and unemployment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 645-666, June.
    19. Hielke Buddelmeyer & Gilles Mourre & Melanie Ward, 2004. "The determinants of part-time work in EU countries: empirical investigations with macro-panel data - Hielke Buddelmeyer, Gilles Mourre and Melanie Ward," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 213, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    20. Laura Turner & Hervé Boulhol, 2010. "Recent trends and structural breaks in US and EU15 labour productivity growth," Working Papers halshs-00963134, HAL.
    21. Abdelaaziz Aït Ali & Yassine Msadfa, 2017. "Manufacturing Employment Elasticity and Its Drivers in Developing and Emerging Countries : Focus on Sub-Saharan Africa," Research papers & Policy papers 1709, OCP Policy Center.
    22. Altavilla, Carlo & Caroleo, Floro Ernesto, 2009. "Unintended Effects of National-based Active Labour Market Policies," IZA Discussion Papers 4045, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    23. Patrick Lenain, 2005. "Is Europe Reforming? Evidence from Cross-Country Structural Indicators," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0297, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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