IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eso/journl/v47y2016i1p1-31.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

ÉIRE Mod: A DSGE Model for Ireland

Author

Listed:
  • Daragh Clancy

    (European Stability Mechanism, Luxembourg)

  • Rossana Merola

    (International Labour Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland)

Abstract

We present ÉIRE Mod, a quarterly DSGE model developed for macroeconomic policy analysis in Ireland. We simulate productivity and wage and price mark-up shocks to mimic the impact of various structural reforms aimed at improving the efficiency and competitiveness of the Irish economy. We find that all the structural reforms lead to an increase in aggregate output. However, depending on the source of the shocks, there are important differences in the transmission channels and the effect on employment and external competitiveness. This work is the first step towards the development of a suite of DSGE models for Ireland. Extensions of the core ÉIRE Mod detailed here will further enhance its analytic capabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Daragh Clancy & Rossana Merola, 2016. "ÉIRE Mod: A DSGE Model for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(1), pages 1-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:47:y:2016:i:1:p:1-31
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.esr.ie/article/view/504/124
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexandr Hobza & Gilles Mourre, 2010. "Quantifying the potential macroeconomic effects of the Europe 2020 strategy: stylised scenarios," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 424, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    3. Lawless, Martina & Keeney, Mary, 2010. "Wage setting and wage flexibility in Ireland - Results from a firm-level survey," Working Paper Series 1181, European Central Bank.
    4. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    5. Igor Vetlov & Ricardo Mourinho Félix & Laure Frey & Tibor Hlédik & Zoltán Jakab & Niki Papadopoulou & Lukas Reiss & Martin Schneider, 2010. "The Implementation of Scenarios Using DSGE Models," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 8, Bank of Lithuania.
    6. Benjamin Keen & Yongsheng Wang, 2007. "What is a realistic value for price adjustment costs in New Keynesian models?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 789-793.
    7. Colin Bermingham, 2006. "Employment and Inflation Responses to an Exchange Rate Shock in a Calibrated Model," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 27-46.
    8. Michael B. Devereux & Philip R. Lane & Juanyi Xu, 2006. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 478-506, April.
    9. Matteo Cacciatore & Romain Duval & Giuseppe Fiori, 2012. "Short-Term Gain or Pain? A DSGE Model-Based Analysis of the Short-Term Effects of Structural Reforms in Labour and Product Markets," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 948, OECD Publishing.
    10. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2012. "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1686-1714.
    11. Hiau Looi Kee & Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2008. "Import Demand Elasticities and Trade Distortions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 666-682, November.
    12. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007, Elsevier.
    13. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
    14. Patrick Honohan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2006. "Ireland in EMU - More Shocks, Less Insulation?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 263-294.
    15. Sandra Gomes & Pascal Jacquinot & Matthias Mohr & Massimiliano Pisani, 2013. "Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance in the Euro Area Countries: A Model-Based Assessment," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 23-44, February.
    16. Fernando Martins & M. Druant, 2009. "How are Firms’ Wages and Prices Linked: Survey Evidence in Europe," Working Papers w200918, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    17. Francis, Neville & Ramey, Valerie A., 2005. "Is the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis dead? Shocks and aggregate fluctuations revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1379-1399, November.
    18. Edwards, Sebastian & Vegh, Carlos A., 1997. "Banks and macroeconomic disturbances under predetermined exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 239-278, October.
    19. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2014. "The effect of macroprudential policy on endogenous credit cycles," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    20. Lane, Philip R., 2001. "The new open economy macroeconomics: a survey," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 235-266, August.
    21. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2009. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-31.
    22. Bergin, Adele & Conroy, Niall & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Holland, Dawn & McInerney, Niall & Morgenroth, Edgar & Smith, Donal, 2017. "COSMO: A new COre Structural MOdel for Ireland," Papers WP553, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    23. Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2008. "Structural Reforms in the EU: A simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 351, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    24. Ireland, Peter N., 2001. "Sticky-price models of the business cycle: Specification and stability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 3-18, February.
    25. Keeney, Mary J. & Lawless, Martina & Murphy, Alan, 2010. "How Do Firms Set Prices? Survey Evidence from Ireland," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/10, Central Bank of Ireland.
    26. Bradley, John & Fitzgerald, John, 1988. "Industrial output and factor input determination in an econometric model of a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1227-1241, July.
    27. Bermingham, Colin & Conefrey, Thomas, 2014. "The Irish macroeconomic response to an external shock with an application to stress testing," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 454-470.
    28. Alfonso Arpaia & Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld & Alexandr Hobza & Isabel Grilo & Peter Wobst, 2007. "Quantitative assessment of Structural Reforms: Modelling the Lisbon Strategy," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 282, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    29. Negro, Marco Del & Schorfheide, Frank, 2013. "DSGE Model-Based Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 57-140, Elsevier.
    30. Merola, Rossana, 2010. "Optimal monetary policy in a small open economy with financial frictions," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    31. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    32. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
    33. Frank Barry & Michael B. Devereux, 2006. "A Theoretical Growth Model for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 245-262.
    34. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5443 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    36. Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Znuderl, Nusa, 2013. "The HERMES-13 macroeconomic model of the Irish economy," Papers WP460, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    37. Adjemian, Stéphane & Bastani, Houtan & Juillard, Michel & Karamé, Fréderic & Maih, Junior & Mihoubi, Ferhat & Mutschler, Willi & Perendia, George & Pfeifer, Johannes & Ratto, Marco & Villemot, Sébasti, 2011. "Dynare: Reference Manual Version 4," Dynare Working Papers 1, CEPREMAP, revised Mar 2021.
    38. Bradley, John & Gerald, John Fitz, 1990. "Production structures in a small open economy with mobile and indigenous investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(2-3), pages 364-374, May.
    39. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(4), pages 517-531.
    40. Luc Everaert & Werner Schule, 2008. "Why It Pays to Synchronize Structural Reforms in the Euro Area Across Markets and Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 356-366, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luca Onorante & Matija Lozej & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2017. "Countercyclical capital regulation in a small open economy DSGE model," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data needs and Statistics compilation for macroprudential analysis, volume 46, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Werner Roeger & Paul J.J. Welfens, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and Innovations: Transmission Dynamics of Persistent Demand and Technology Shocks in a Macro Model," EIIW Discussion paper disbei300, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    3. Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Demographic Change, Long-Run Housing Demand and the Related Challenges for the Irish Banking Sector," Book Chapters, in: Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. McQuinn, Kieran & Varthalitis, Petros, 2018. "How openness to trade rescued the Irish economy," MPRA Paper 90416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Lozej, Matija, 2019. "Economic migration and business cycles in a small open economy with matching frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 604-620.
    6. Philip R. Lane, 2019. "Globalisation: A Macro-Financial Perspective," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(2), pages 249-263.
    7. Bergin, Adele & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Mc Inerney, Niall & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2016. "Baseline: Methodology, Assumptions and Projections," Book Chapters, in: Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2017. "Countercyclical capital rules for small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 332-351.
    9. William Gatt & Noel Rapa & Luca Brugnolini, 2020. "MEDSEA-FIN A DSGE model of the Maltese economy with housing and financial frictions," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2020, Central Bank of Malta.
    10. Campagne, Benoît & Poissonnier, Aurélien, 2018. "Structural reforms in DSGE models: Output gains but welfare losses," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 397-421.
    11. Rünstler, Gerhard & Balfoussia, Hiona & Burlon, Lorenzo & Buss, Ginters & Comunale, Mariarosaria & De Backer, Bruno & Dewachter, Hans & Guarda, Paolo & Haavio, Markus & Hindrayanto, Irma & Iskrev, Nik, 2018. "Real and financial cycles in EU countries - Stylised facts and modelling implications," Occasional Paper Series 205, European Central Bank.
    12. Bergin, Adele & Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Lawless, Martina & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number EO1 edited by Bergin, Adele & Morgenroth, Edgar & McQuinn, Kieran, June.
    13. John FitzGerald, 2019. "Contributing to Macro-Economic Policy in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(4), pages 613-623.
    14. Noel Rapa, 2016. "MEDSEA : a small open economy DSGE model for Malta," CBM Working Papers WP/05/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    15. Varthalitis, Petros, 2019. "FIR-GEM: A SOE-DSGE Model for fiscal policy analysis in Ireland," Papers WP620, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    16. Lawless, Martina & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2016. "Opportunities and Risks for Foreign Direct Investment," Book Chapters, in: Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    17. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2014. "The effect of macroprudential policy on endogenous credit cycles," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    18. Bergin, Adele & Conroy, Niall & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Holland, Dawn & McInerney, Niall & Morgenroth, Edgar & Smith, Donal, 2017. "COSMO: A new COre Structural MOdel for Ireland," Papers WP553, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2014. "The effect of macroprudential policy on endogenous credit cycles," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2017. "Countercyclical capital rules for small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 332-351.
    3. Dimitris Papageorgiou, 2014. "BoGGEM: a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for policy simulations," Working Papers 182, Bank of Greece.
    4. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    5. Jacquinot, Pascal & Clancy, Daragh & Lozej, Matija, 2014. "The effects of government spending in a small open economy within a monetary union," Working Paper Series 1727, European Central Bank.
    6. Jocelyn Maillard, 2020. "Heterogeneity, Rigidity and Convergence of Labor Markets in the Euro Area," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 140, pages 127-167.
    7. Jesper Lindé & Marianne Nessén & Ulf Söderström, 2009. "Monetary policy in an estimated open-economy model with imperfect pass-through," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 301-333.
    8. Ida Wolden Bache, 2008. "Assessing estimates of the exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper 2007/12, Norges Bank.
    9. Raquel Fonseca & Lise Patureau & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2009. "Divergence in Labor Market Institutions and International Business Cycles," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 95-96, pages 279-314.
    10. Ali Dib, 2011. "Monetary Policy in Estimated Models of Small Open and Closed Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 769-796, November.
    11. Martina Basarac Sertic & Anita Ceh Casni & Valentina Vuckovic, 2015. "Impact of labour market reforms on economic activity in European Union: short term costs and long term benefits," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 39(1), pages 83-107.
    12. Cacciatore, Matteo & Duval, Romain & Fiori, Giuseppe & Ghironi, Fabio, 2016. "Short-term pain for long-term gain: Market deregulation and monetary policy in small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 358-385.
    13. Ghironi, Fabio, 2008. "The role of net foreign assets in a New Keynesian small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1780-1811, June.
    14. Francesco Sergi, 2015. "L'histoire (faussement) naïve des modèles DSGE," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01222798, HAL.
    15. Francesco Sergi, 2015. "L'histoire (faussement) naïve des modèles DSGE," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15066, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    16. Raquel Fonseca & Lise Patureau & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2009. "Divergence in Labor Market Institutions and International Business Cycles," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, pages 279-314.
    17. Ida Wolden Bache & Bjørn E. Naug, 2008. "Estimating New Keynesian import price models," Working Paper 2007/15, Norges Bank.
    18. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Eyal Argov & Emanuel Barnea & Alon Binyamini & Eliezer Borenstein & David Elkayam & Irit Rozenshtrom, 2012. "MOISE: A DSGE Model for the Israeli Economy," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2012.06, Bank of Israel.
    20. Gelfer, Sacha & Gibbs, Christopher G., 2023. "Measuring the effects of large-scale asset purchases: The role of international financial markets and the financial accelerator," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    21. Gabriela Castro & José R. Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2013. "Inside PESSOA -A Detailed Description of the Model," Working Papers w201316, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomics; Ireland; economic analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:47:y:2016:i:1:p:1-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aedin Doris (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.esr.ie .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.