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The effect of macroprudential policy on endogenous credit cycles

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  • Clancy, Daragh

    (European Stability Mechanism)

  • Merola, Rossana

    (International Labour Office)

Abstract

The financial sector played a key role in triggering the recent crisis. Negative feedback loops between the financial sector and the real economy have further increased the persistence and amplitude of the downturn. We examine such macrofinancial linkages through the lens of the housing market. We develop a model capable of replicating some key stylised facts from the bursting of the Irish property bubble. We show that expectations of future favourable events may accelerate credit growth and potentially result in a more vulnerable economy susceptible to downward revisions to the original expectations. We find that macro-prudential policy, in particular counter-cyclical capital requirements and larger capital buffers, can play a role in insulating the economy from these risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2014. "The effect of macroprudential policy on endogenous credit cycles," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
  • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:15/rt/14
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    Cited by:

    1. Kelly, Robert & O'Toole, Conor, 2016. "Lending Conditions and Loan Default: What Can We Learn From UK Buy-to-Let Loans?," Research Technical Papers 04/RT/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Bergin, Adele & Conroy, Niall & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Holland, Dawn & McInerney, Niall & Morgenroth, Edgar & Smith, Donal, 2017. "COSMO: A new COre Structural MOdel for Ireland," Papers WP553, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Kelly, Robert & McCann, Fergal & O’Toole, Conor, 2018. "Credit conditions, macroprudential policy and house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 153-167.
    4. Daragh Clancy & Rossana Merola, 2016. "ÉIRE Mod: A DSGE Model for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(1), pages 1-31.
    5. Luca Onorante & Matija Lozej & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2017. "Countercyclical capital regulation in a small open economy DSGE model," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data needs and Statistics compilation for macroprudential analysis, volume 46, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Lozej, Matija & Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2017. "The macroeconomic effects of the regulatory LTV and LTI ratios in the Central Bank of Ireland's DSGE model," Economic Letters 04/EL/17, Central Bank of Ireland.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE; macro-prudential policy; macro-financial linkages; capital requirements; Ireland.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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