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A Risk Assessment Model for Banks

Author

Listed:
  • Charles A.E. Goodhart
  • Pojanart Sunirand
  • Dimitrios P. Tsomocos

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to propose a model to assess risk for banks. Its main innovation is to incorporate endogenous interaction between banks, recognising that the actual risk to which an individual bank is exposed also depends on its interaction with other banks and other private sector agents. To this end, we develop a two-period general equilibrium model with three active heterogeneous banks, incomplete markets, and endogenous default. The setting of three heterogeneous banks allows us to study not only interaction between any two individual banks, but also their interaction with the rest of the banks in the banking system. We show that the model is analytically tractable and can be calibrated against real UK banking data and therefore can be implemented as a risk assessment tool for financial regulators and central banks. We address the impact of monetary and regulatory policy as well as credit and capital shocks in the real and financial sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A Risk Assessment Model for Banks," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe11, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbs:wpsefe:2004fe11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2005. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - banks’ choice of loan rating system," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 26(3), pages 537-557, October.
    2. Martin Shubik, 2000. "The Theory of Money," Working Papers 00-03-021, Santa Fe Institute.
    3. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2012. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking and Financial Instability," Chapters, in: The Challenge of Financial Stability, chapter 4, pages 61-97, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
    5. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2006. "A model to analyse financial fragility," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(1), pages 107-142, January.
    6. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Lea Zicchino, 2012. "On Modelling Endogenous Default," Chapters, in: The Challenge of Financial Stability, chapter 6, pages 134-152, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2003. "Equilibrium analysis, banking, contagion and financial fragility," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24826, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Sunirand, Pojanart & Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2004. "A model to analyse financial fragility: applications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-30, September.
    9. M. Shubik & D. Tsomocos, 1992. "A strategic market game with a mutual bank with fractional reserves and redemption in gold," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 123-150, June.
    10. Charles Goodhart, 1989. "Money, Information and Uncertainty: 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262071223, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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