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The macroeconomic effects of the regulatory LTV and LTI ratios in the Central Bank of Ireland's DSGE model

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  • Lozej, Matija

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Rannenberg, Ansgar

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

We use the Central Bank of Ireland’s DSGE model to investigate the introduction of regulatory loan-to-value and loan-to-income ratios in the mortgage market in 2015, which form part of the Central Bank’s macroprudential measures. The main finding is that while the measures dampen economic activity in the short run, they bring benefits in the medium and long run. Household leverage declines, which lowers the default rate on bank loans. The economy as a whole deleverages and foreign debt decreases significantly.

Suggested Citation

  • Lozej, Matija & Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2017. "The macroeconomic effects of the regulatory LTV and LTI ratios in the Central Bank of Ireland's DSGE model," Economic Letters 04/EL/17, Central Bank of Ireland.
  • Handle: RePEc:cbi:ecolet:04/el/17
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    File URL: https://centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/economic-letters/economic-letter-vol-2017-no-4.pdf?sfvrsn=6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cussen, Mary & O'Brien, Martin & Onorante, Luca & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2015. "Assessing the impact of macroprudential measures," Economic Letters 03/EL/15, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Kinghan, Christina & Lyons, Paul & McCarthy, Yvonne & O'Toole, Conor, 2016. "Macroprudential Measures and Irish Mortgage Lending: Insights from H1 2016," Economic Letters 06/EL/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Mark Cassidy & Niamh Hallissey, 2016. "The Introduction of Macroprudential Measures for the Irish Mortgage Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(2), pages 271-297.
    4. Jaromir Benes & Douglas Laxton & Joannes Mongardini, 2018. "Mitigating the deadly embrace in financial cycles: Countercyclical buffers and loan-to-value limits," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Peter Pauly (ed.), Global Economic Modeling A Volume in Honor of Lawrence R. Klein, chapter 5, pages 90-111, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Laurent Clerc & Alexis Derviz & Caterina Mendicino & Stephane Moyen & Kalin Nikolov & Livio Stracca & Javier Suarez & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2015. "Capital Regulation in a Macroeconomic Model with Three Layers of Default," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(3), pages 9-63, June.
    6. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2014. "The effect of macroprudential policy on endogenous credit cycles," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    8. Jakab, Zoltan & Kumhof, Michael, 2015. "Banks are not intermediaries of loanable funds – and why this matters," Bank of England working papers 529, Bank of England.
    9. Keenan, Enda & Kinghan, Christina & McCarthy, Yvonne & O'Toole, Conor, 2016. "Macroprudential Measures and Irish Mortgage Lending: A Review of Recent Data," Economic Letters 03/EL/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jakab, Zoltan & Kumhof, Michael, 2018. "Banks are not intermediaries of loanable funds — facts, theory and evidence," Bank of England working papers 761, Bank of England, revised 17 Jan 2020.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2017. "Ireland; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 17/172, International Monetary Fund.

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