IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cbi/ecolet/04-el-17.html

The macroeconomic effects of the regulatory LTV and LTI ratios in the Central Bank of Ireland's DSGE model

Author

Listed:
  • Lozej, Matija

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Rannenberg, Ansgar

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

We use the Central Bank of Ireland’s DSGE model to investigate the introduction of regulatory loan-to-value and loan-to-income ratios in the mortgage market in 2015, which form part of the Central Bank’s macroprudential measures. The main finding is that while the measures dampen economic activity in the short run, they bring benefits in the medium and long run. Household leverage declines, which lowers the default rate on bank loans. The economy as a whole deleverages and foreign debt decreases significantly.

Suggested Citation

  • Lozej, Matija & Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2017. "The macroeconomic effects of the regulatory LTV and LTI ratios in the Central Bank of Ireland's DSGE model," Economic Letters 04/EL/17, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:ecolet:04/el/17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/economic-letters/economic-letter-vol-2017-no-4.pdf?sfvrsn=6
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cussen, Mary & O'Brien, Martin & Onorante, Luca & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2015. "Assessing the impact of macroprudential measures," Economic Letters 03/EL/15, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Kinghan, Christina & Lyons, Paul & McCarthy, Yvonne & O'Toole, Conor, 2016. "Macroprudential Measures and Irish Mortgage Lending: Insights from H1 2016," Economic Letters 06/EL/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Mark Cassidy & Niamh Hallissey, 2016. "The Introduction of Macroprudential Measures for the Irish Mortgage Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(2), pages 271-297.
    4. Jaromir Benes & Douglas Laxton & Joannes Mongardini, 2018. "Mitigating the deadly embrace in financial cycles: Countercyclical buffers and loan-to-value limits," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Peter Pauly (ed.), Global Economic Modeling A Volume in Honor of Lawrence R. Klein, chapter 5, pages 90-111, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. John FitzGerald & Ide Kearney, 1999. "Migration and the Irish Labour Market," Papers WP113, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2014. "The effect of macroprudential policy on endogenous credit cycles," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    8. Zoltan Jakab & Michael Kumhof, 2015. "Banks are not intermediaries of loanable funds – and why this matters," Bank of England working papers 529, Bank of England.
    9. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Laurent Clerc & Alexis Derviz & Caterina Mendicino & Stephane Moyen & Kalin Nikolov & Livio Stracca & Javier Suarez & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2015. "Capital Regulation in a Macroeconomic Model with Three Layers of Default," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(3), pages 9-63, June.
    11. Keenan, Enda & Kinghan, Christina & McCarthy, Yvonne & O'Toole, Conor, 2016. "Macroprudential Measures and Irish Mortgage Lending: A Review of Recent Data," Economic Letters 03/EL/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eyno Rots & Barnabas Szekely, 2021. "A Model-Based Comparison of Macroprudential Tools," MNB Working Papers 2021/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    2. Zoltan Jakab & Michael Kumhof, 2018. "Banks are not intermediaries of loanable funds — facts, theory and evidence," Bank of England working papers 761, Bank of England.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2017. "Ireland: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2017/172, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Xuan Wang, 2020. "A Macro-Financial Perspective to Analyse Maturity Mismatch and Default," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-064/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Wang, Xuan, 2023. "A macro-financial perspective to analyse maturity mismatch and default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Gerth, Florian & Temnov, Grigory, 2021. "New Ways of Modeling Loan-to-Income Distributions and their Evolution in Time - A Probability Copula Approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 217-236.
    7. Lo Duca, Marco & Hallissey, Niamh & Jurca, Pavol & Kouratzoglou, Charalampos & Lima, Diana & Pirovano, Mara & Prapiestis, Algirdas & Saldías, Martín & Tereanu, Eugen & Bartal, Mehdi & Giedraitė, Edita, 2023. "The more the merrier? Macroprudential instrument interactions and effective policy implementation," Occasional Paper Series 310, European Central Bank.
    8. Kumhof, Michael & Wang, Xuan, 2021. "Banks, money, and the zero lower bound on deposit rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    9. Hiona Balfoussia & Harris Dellas & Dimitris Papageorgiou, 2018. "Loan-to-value ratio limits: an exploration for Greece," Working Papers 248, Bank of Greece.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lo Duca, Marco & Hallissey, Niamh & Jurca, Pavol & Kouratzoglou, Charalampos & Lima, Diana & Pirovano, Mara & Prapiestis, Algirdas & Saldías, Martín & Tereanu, Eugen & Bartal, Mehdi & Giedraitė, Edita, 2023. "The more the merrier? Macroprudential instrument interactions and effective policy implementation," Occasional Paper Series 310, European Central Bank.
    2. Lozej, Matija & Onorante, Luca & Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2023. "Countercyclical capital regulation in a small open economy DSGE model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 1230-1267, July.
    3. Taryk Bennani & Cyril Couaillier & Antoine Devulder & Silvia Gabrieli & Julien Idier & Pier Lopez & Thibaut Piquard & Valerio Scalone, 2017. "An analytical framework to calibrate macroprudential policy," Working papers 648, Banque de France.
    4. Kelly, Jane & Mazza, Elena, 2019. "Mortgage servicing burdens and LTI caps," Financial Stability Notes 13/FS/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    6. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1998. "Measuring monetary policy with VAR models: An evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1069-1112, June.
    7. Fair, Ray C., 2012. "Has macro progressed?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 2-10.
    8. Mr. Evan C Tanner & Mr. Kevin J Carey, 2005. "The Perils of Tax Smoothing: Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output," IMF Working Papers 2005/207, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Martin Cesnak & Andrej Cupak & Pirmin Fessler & Jan Klacso, 2025. "Heterogenous Impacts of Macroprudential Policies: Financial Advisors, Regulatory Caps, and Mortgage Risk," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2025, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    10. Liang Guo, 2006. "—Removing the Boundary Between Structural and Reduced-Form Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 629-632, 11-12.
    11. J.P.G. Reijnders, 2007. "Impulse or propagation? How the tides turned in Business Cycle Theory," Working Papers 07-07, Utrecht School of Economics.
    12. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1983. "Dividend taxes, corporate investment, and `Q'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 135-167, November.
    13. Elvio Accinelli & Juan Gabriel Brida, 2007. "Modelos económicos con múltiples regímenes," Revista de Administración, Finanzas y Economía (Journal of Management, Finance and Economics), Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México, vol. 1(2), pages 96-115.
    14. Mulder, C.B., 1986. "Testing Korteweg's rational expectations model for a small open economy," Other publications TiSEM c52e6c80-834d-49c7-ae6a-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Bentour, El Mostafa, 2013. "Oil Prices, Drought Periods and Growth Forecasts in Morocco," MPRA Paper 52892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Tryphon Kollintzas, 1986. "Tax Policy under Nongeometric Physical Depreciation," Public Finance Review, , vol. 14(3), pages 263-288, July.
    17. Eisenschmidt, Jens & Carpenter, Seth & Demiralp, Selva, 2013. "The effectiveness of the non-standard policy measures during the financial crises: the experiences of the federal reserve and the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 1562, European Central Bank.
    18. He, Yong, 2018. "Can the visible and invisible hands coexist in land pricing?," MPRA Paper 88770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Hany Guirguis & Christos Giannikos & Randy Anderson, 2004. "The US Housing Market: Asset Pricing Forecasts Using Time Varying Coefficients," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 33-53, October.
    20. Michael R. Darby, 1983. "International Transmission of Monetary and Fiscal Shocks under Pegged and Floating Exchange Rates: Simulation Experiments," NBER Chapters, in: The International Transmission of Inflation, pages 162-231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbi:ecolet:04/el/17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fiona Farrelly (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbigvie.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.